powderfreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def the first really good RPM run...pretty good area of 6"+...we'll see if the RGEM (another meso) tries to ramp up at 18z. I would weight that a lote more than the RPM. I wonder if that snow up here is from what is happening or just happened? When did that initialize? 17z... probably includes today's snow. We just picked up like 3-4" of paste at the mountain in a 2-3 hour onslaught. Would love to grab another 3-4" like the RPM shows but I think that's probably including what just happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Soundings on 3K, my name is Thumpiity, MAUL me I feel pretty confident in our respective areas on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I feel pretty confident in our respective areas on. Pronounced umpitty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Pretty good look. At least my son will enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 RGEM ticked SE at 18z. Still a very nice run for most of SNE, but not amping up more like other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I wonder if that snow up here is from what is happening or just happened? When did that initialize? 17z... probably includes today's snow. We just picked up like 3-4" of paste at the mountain in a 2-3 hour onslaught. Would love to grab another 3-4" like the RPM shows but I think that's probably including what just happened? I was surprised no chatter from you last night about that. Nice dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pronounced umpitty You're prob gonna see 6"+ there unless this craps out in the final 24h ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You're prob gonna see 6"+ there unless this craps out in the final 24h ours. You just "ginxed" it. Har har har Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I'm going with 3-6 across the state... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You're prob gonna see 6"+ there unless this craps out in the final 24h ours. If modeling holds and my memory serves this is typically probably the best track for my hood for a small system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Bufkit rations for the NAM show the progression to great snow growth SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 180218/0600Z 36 08003KT 32.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 180218/0700Z 37 06003KT 32.1F SNOW 17:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 10:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0 180218/0800Z 38 03003KT 32.1F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 12:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 180218/0900Z 39 36005KT 32.3F SNOW 23:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 14:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0 180218/1000Z 40 36005KT 32.3F SNOW 21:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 14:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I was surprised no chatter from you last night about that. Nice dump Ha yeah that one slipped by a bit. I figured an inch but got lit up nicely by the Spine. Love your location for this next storm. Enjoy it man! I know you do haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 We all enjoy it. And then flip flops by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 18z GFS looked even better with the s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z GFS looked even better with the s/w. Really deep saturated snowgrowth soundings too...these are like 200-250mb deep if we are going roughly -10C to -18C....but you could even use a bit warmer since we have more salt nuclei in our soundings than most of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Really deep saturated snowgrowth soundings too...these are like 200-250mb deep if we are going roughly -10C to -18C....but you could even use a bit warmer since we have more salt nuclei in our soundings than most of the country. Some internal discussion about BOS and temps near 33 helping to reduce amounts a tad. I dunno..maybe? But I feel like as shown..could be one of those things where they hover near 32 and do just fine. Pretty cold just off the deck and little marine inflow. Help to Tw to 32 with good snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Some internal discussion about BOS and temps near 33 helping to reduce amounts a tad. I dunno..maybe? But I feel like as shown..could be one of those things where they hover near 32 and do just fine. Pretty cold just off the deck and little marine inflow. Help to Tw to 32 with good snow growth. Might be one of those things that messes with Logan out in the harbor maybe? But yeah, like even Boston common I can't see being that affected. I suppose the lowest spots could lose a little bit early on with the marginal temps, but it seems like everyone is going to quickly get to freezing or below with the cold off the deck. 18z GFS has 950mb at -2C at BOS at 06z...18z NAM had -2.5C. That's not going to support 33-34F at the sfc if the snow is coming down with any real intensity. You'd prob have to keep it like 1 mile or higher vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 And 900mb is downright frigid...like -5C. We saw this in the March 2013 firehose event...everyone was scared of sfc temps but it was really cold at 900-950 so when it came down hard, it had no problem getting to 30-31. Obviously you need the rates though...if it stays light, then it will be uglier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Might be one of those things that messes with Logan out in the harbor maybe? But yeah, like even Boston common I can't see being that affected. I suppose the lowest spots could lose a little bit early on with the marginal temps, but it seems like everyone is going to quickly get to freezing or below with the cold off the deck. 18z GFS has 950mb at -2C at BOS at 06z...18z NAM had -2.5C. That's not going to support 33-34F at the sfc if the snow is coming down with any real intensity. You'd prob have to keep it like 1 mile or higher vis. Right, that is plenty cold too. Well I have my thoughts...we'll see how it goes. I feel like the RGEM is too warm in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Also those areas getting more than 6" of paste...(thinking you more in SE MA near the Cape perhaps) could be some limbs down. Looks like fairly light winds so that will be the type of snow that stacks on the pines and snaps a few branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Has anyone done an ICON post today yet?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Nice jump north lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also those areas getting more than 6" of paste...(thinking you more in SE MA near the Cape perhaps) could be some limbs down. Looks like fairly light winds so that will be the type of snow that stacks on the pines and snaps a few branches. Can we limbs down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can we limbs down? I don't see this as an issue at your altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 RPM going wild again...even more than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM going wild again...even more than 18z. Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 it always seems to do that, Will ...in tightish to events... Not a statement or knock on the tool, but, I'm wondering if it's just better resolving the discrete baroclinicity that really should be closer to LI than that southern shift stuff... I mentioned the concepts surrounding that yesterday but I haven't hit it today very hard, because it is another situation where the short terms runs are flying in the face of theoretics... Less there's something they're seeing we're not .heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can you post? Not quite done in eastern areas at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Thank you Will...appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Yeah actually fairly similar. Another good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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