Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Little lighter on qpf than 00z. But it honestly looked very similar aloft. 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Little lighter on qpf than 00z. But it honestly looked very similar aloft. .7 both runs here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: .7 both runs here ? for QPF on the Euro? maybe 00z but 12z today is barely .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Little lighter on qpf than 00z. But it honestly looked very similar aloft. Yeah pretty close there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: .7 both runs here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: .7 both runs here Looks like 60% of that. Looks more like 0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Yeah... Euro def cut back some... not surprising. Still should be a decent event for some... but nothing that won’t be gone in a day. I like my original call. 1-3” for most of SNE... max zone in eastern conn over to se mass of 3-5”.... Someone has an outside shot at 6” if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Soundings are exceptionally good for snow growth...someone's prob gonna get a nice little fluff bomb wherever a heavier band or two sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Soundings are exceptionally good for snow growth...someone's prob gonna get a nice little fluff bomb wherever a heavier band or two sets up. *cough* SE MA *cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 24 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 inch line touches me fanny. Congrats work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Steve, your map goes to 84 hours...there's QPF between 78-84 hours that is rain. That's where your difference is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I'm wondering about rain for coastal plymouth. When there is a fine line to be walked, this area is usually rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 37 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... Euro def cut back some... not surprising. Still should be a decent event for some... but nothing that won’t be gone in a day. I like my original call. 1-3” for most of SNE... max zone in eastern conn over to se mass of 3-5”.... Someone has an outside shot at 6” if things break right. I think it will be a nice little event....especially for those with reasonable expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6 inch line touches me fanny. Congrats work I think the EURO has this nailed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Steve, your map goes to 84 hours...there's QPF between 78-84 hours that is rain. That's where your difference is coming from. and a tenth or so of rain up to hour 12 on the euro is added in to that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Smiling all the way to >100% snow for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I'll take 3-4" and run here. Then we get to break out the bikinis and banana hammocks midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I'll take 3-4" and run here. Then we get to break out the bikinis and banana hammocks midweek. Starting Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 New SREFS are considerably more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: New SREFS are considerably more robust. Yea, not surprised. This has an inside 24 hr bump up in numbers written all over it. I'm on board with what Will was poking fun at earlier... The 12z ARW's look robust as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Steve, your map goes to 84 hours...there's QPF between 78-84 hours that is rain. That's where your difference is coming from. Ah thanks I will take the 6 plus with ratios the Euro gives. The type of setup where ECT hills does well. ESE winds in Feb under a cold dome are productive here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Yea, not surprised. This has an inside 24 hr bump up in numbers written all over it. I'm on board with what Will was poking fun at earlier... The 12z ARW's look robust as well... When don't the ARWs look robust? I agree with you though...this has positive bust potential written all over it. I can see Tblizz posting something like..."wow, up to 7" now and still coming down!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Many are expecting SE MA and the Cape to have p-type issues/significantly worse ratios. I don't think that's the case here - and pretty big risk considering this storm really ramps up as it passes the BM. This looks like the best event for SE MA this season, ironically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Starting Monday. 40's and rain is bikini weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Many are expecting SE MA and the Cape to have p-type issues/significantly worse ratios. I don't think that's the case here - and pretty big risk considering this storm really ramps up as it passes the BM. This looks like the best event for SE MA this season, ironically... Maybe down by the canal. Interior SE Mass has done well. 20” during the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Falls under "modelology" but for some reason the euro has been notoriously southeast inside 48 hrs. Just a caution flag that I think it's worth considering the possibility that the 12z euro's gradient be shifted 25 - 50 miles northwest. Just some food for thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: New SREFS are considerably more robust. Yup. I see a 4-6" stripe from Ginx over to Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: 40's and rain is bikini weather? Sure if you take the models verbatim. Seems likely to me the timing of that backdoor exit is pushed forward and we torch beginning in the afternoon. Especially by you... That ridge means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Maybe down by the canal. Interior SE Mass has done well. 20” during the blizzard Yea. That's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Smiling all the way to >100% snow for the season. Congrats Season of Suck continues here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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