RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rgem is pretty nice. It's overplaying the warmth there too, showing it as rain for alot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12z GFS getting a clue......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What are you chuckling at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What are you chuckling at? Life in general. Oh and that some jump ship when terrible models show a terrible solution....boggles me brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12z GFS with a bump north as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 was there any event this winter the models did not flip flop on besides the cutter that broke the cold spell back in Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s what I mean. Just have to weigh it accordingly. Anyways the mid levels will keep the queens in check with this one. Yea I think this will be an overperformer. Timing is favorable with storm ramping up after sunset. The door is still open for more PV interaction as well. - AO argues for more PV phasing. I think the risk is in favor of the guidance consensus deepening this a bit more into go time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z GFS with a bump north as expected. Past three runs GFS has sharpened up the shortwave, incrementally. I don't think it's done trending yet either...close..but not there yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The 12z Reggie looks similar to the 0z Euro up here anyways as far as qpf output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: The 12z Reggie looks similar to the 0z Euro up here anyways as far as qpf output. It made a notable correction to the west from it's 0z run. More of an ENE track vs almost due E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 NAM is the most feeble model now for snow. Go figure after what it was doing yesterday. RGEM/GFS/GGEM have all bumped north at 12z...opposite direction of the NAM trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Nam is the southern outlier now, It will get it right possibly saturday night at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Go with the model that shows the most snow, then adjust upward using the DIT bias factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is the most feeble model now for snow. Go figure after what it was doing yesterday. RGEM/GFS/GGEM have all bumped north at 12z...opposite direction of the NAM trend. The NAM has been moving around quite a bit. When it’s doing that from 72 hours on in its usually an indication it can be tossed on that event until you’re inside 18-24. It usually drum beats when it’s handling things well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: As I stated yesterday... no doubt Euro and NAM too amped. Max zone I think is 3-5 Exactly. But I could see 3-6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Go with the model that shows the most snow, then adjust upward using the DIT bias factor Its called the loli factor, With a +20% bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4-6” looks good for the state with less along the se coast. Decent event we snuck in in the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I would still take the ukmet and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Have to see if the Euro holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I would still take the ukmet and run. It's been pretty darn consistent for like 4-5 runs now for SNE (it's varied a little more on northern extent up in NNE). If Euro agrees with it again more or less, then we can prob lock it in. Maybe shave a little off since Ukie's been a little juicier than Euro, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Life in general. Oh and that some jump ship when terrible models show a terrible solution....boggles me brain. I didn't see any terrible solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 It looks like a nice little early April overnight snowfall. Pretty and short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: It looks like a nice little early April overnight snowfall. Pretty and short lived. As we get older, quickies are appreciated more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's been pretty darn consistent for like 4-5 runs now for SNE (it's varied a little more on northern extent up in NNE). If Euro agrees with it again more or less, then we can prob lock it in. Maybe shave a little off since Ukie's been a little juicier than Euro, but not by much. She's tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 hours ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS getting a clue......lol Yup. Op nearly doubles Augusta qpf - from 0.07" to 0.13". Would mean maybe 1/2" at my place instead of a dusting. Checked RUM - 12z gives 0.05", up from 0.03" for 06z. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro looking better than 0 z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, tamarack said: Yup. Op nearly doubles Augusta qpf - from 0.07" to 0.13". Would mean maybe 1/2" at my place instead of a dusting. lol, GFS giveth, The Euro taketh, I don't expect much a couple inches maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro a bit less than 00z but still pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, WintersComing said: Euro looking better than 0 z? Little lighter on qpf than 00z. But it honestly looked very similar aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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