dryslot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: NAM a little south again. Sweet. Cluck, cluck, cluck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Still 3-5" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 As I stated yesterday... no doubt Euro and NAM too amped. Max zone I think is 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: As I stated yesterday... no doubt Euro and NAM too amped. Max zone I think is 3-5 Probably a good first guess. The snow growth is excellent so that makes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Nam will get it tomorrow night, After i saw last weeks storm show 2.7" here at 06z the day of the storm and we got 8.5", I wouldn't rely on anything it shows, Its a POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I guess I should qualify why I've been saying a whiff because quite honestly when I look at the models I'm basing what I'm seeing on what's generally going to fall in my backyard. For a while it was looking pretty good for Lowell, and even getting some love up north. But this is a Mass Pike south storm and even then, not more than a few inches. I might get a few flurries up north, and 2" in Lowell, but that's a whiff in my playbook. On the otherhand, that's a very aggressive map out of BOX. I hope I'm wrong, but enjoy it while it lasts. Bikini's and banana hammocks next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Nam looks like it's trending toward gfs/cmc. Might end up being forgettable for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 This is the phase of the threat where everyone will cancel/downgrade...Euro will come south a bit and then everyone will proclaim the GFS nailed it. Then we see the 24h northward tick tonight/tomorrow morning....nowcast ticks north again, and then everyone is "surprised" at how much snow fell. Sound about right? Alrighty then, lets do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This is the phase of the threat where everyone will cancel/downgrade...Euro will come south a bit and then everyone will proclaim the GFS nailed it. Then we see the 24h northward tick tonight/tomorrow morning....nowcast ticks north again, and then everyone is "surprised" at how much snow fell. Sound about right? Alrighty then, lets do this. We shall see. Models have been converging on a middle ground with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the phase of the threat where everyone will cancel/downgrade...Euro will come south a bit and then everyone will proclaim the GFS nailed it. Then we see the 24h northward tick tonight/tomorrow morning....nowcast ticks north again, and then everyone is "surprised" at how much snow fell. Sound about right? Alrighty then, lets do this. Nailed it, This time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 22 minutes ago, dryslot said: Cluck, cluck, cluck. You and Lava Rock pad your lead over the foothills a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Gfs has been creeping north so it hasn’t won anything. Probably will again at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Repeated failures by GFS in these events mean nothing to 75% of the posters here. Ruled by emotion and fear of not getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Repeated failures by GFS in these events mean nothing to 75% of the posters here. Ruled by emotion and fear of not getting snow. Well to be fair if the most aggressive models come down and the pessimistic ones come up it’s a bit of a compromise imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well to be fair if the most aggressive models come down and the pessimistic ones come up it’s a bit of a compromise imo. GFS blows. ECMWF is far more credible as a model hence my reading into the psychology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2-4" for me... that is all... not changing anything yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS blows. ECMWF is far more credible as a model hence my reading into the psychology. It’s guidance like everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s guidance like everything else. It’s guidance but weighed accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS blows. ECMWF is far more credible as a model hence my reading into the psychology. More credible but prone to over-amplification as we have seen countless times this year and in years prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: More credible but prone to over-amplification as we have seen countless times this year and in years prior. So weigh it accordingly factoring the bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the phase of the threat where everyone will cancel/downgrade...Euro will come south a bit and then everyone will proclaim the GFS nailed it. Then we see the 24h northward tick tonight/tomorrow morning....nowcast ticks north again, and then everyone is "surprised" at how much snow fell. Sound about right? Alrighty then, lets do this. No that's wrong. It usually starts pushing well northwest at this point and everyone on the coast cancels it as it'll rain ...only to see the final 24 hours tick SE and every single HRRR and RAP run in nowcast keeps going further east. The late and great Messenger routine of see pressures are developing further off-shore down in the Carolinas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: More credible but prone to over-amplification as we have seen countless times this year and in years prior. Yeah the Euro has been terrible at over amping. I'm owed snow because of it, ha. Like last night the Euro had 0.2" QPF all the way up here, lol. Not happening James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Rgem is pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Rgem is sweet looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the Euro has been terrible at over amping. I'm owed snow because of it, ha. Like last night the Euro had 0.2" QPF all the way up here, lol. Not happening James. That’s what I mean. Just have to weigh it accordingly. Anyways the mid levels will keep the queens in check with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: More credible but prone to over-amplification as we have seen countless times this year and in years prior. It’s usually more the case beyond 72 hours and with coastal storms originating in the southeast than a system like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Rgem is pretty nice. Almost looks like some rain on the cape and coastal ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s usually more the case beyond 72 hours and with coastal storms originating in the southeast than a system like this Yeah, I don't think its the case with this one, Its usually down south and SW where it gets amp happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Yeah, I don't think its the case with this one, Its usually down south and SW where it gets amp happy. The Euro may have had a minor upgrade at some point in the past 6 months. I can’t find anything on it but after the major upgrade it had alittle over a year ago it had problems being too flat and south with many storms and I’ve seen that be less of an issue since the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: So weigh it accordingly factoring the bias. Of course. This is why we look at ALL the guidance and use the pieces that seem the most logical and go with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.