Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah much more flatter than other guidance at H5. Interesting difference so close. GFS sucks with stream phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: IF it evolves like the NAM or even the Euro shows, then someone will prob be around 10" in that type of banding. Really classic look for some instability embedded in the very strong ML fronto. Even so, Ryan doesn't usually give a range that represents lollies at the upper end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yet it’s still incorporated in forecasts lol Enough for CTmcRain to drop his forecast by a tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Even so, Ryan doesn't usually give a range that represents lollies at the upper end. My concern is that the amped up solutions are too amped. There are some lame outliers in the EPS suite too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Enough for CTmcRain to drop his forecast by a tick. Exactly. Dude would have gone with a 5-10” , but used the gfs to lower it. Why not just totally ignore it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Outside of its wheelhouse, but Reggie is still really flat too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Exactly. Dude would have gone with a 5-10” , but used the gfs to lower it. Why not just totally ignore it? It's just the way it is. There is certainly a chance the Euro and NAM are overly amped, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: It's just the way it is. There is certainly a chance the Euro and NAM are overly amped, right? Sure. I’ve had 4-8” since early AM. But I haven’t used any GFS in that at all . I just hope outlets arent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It's just the way it is. There is certainly a chance the Euro and NAM are overly amped, right? Euro, NAM and Ukmet and of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I love the fact that Ray is in Uganda, meeting his fiance’s family for the first time and is still pumping out calls on moderate events. That is dedication. Or insanity either way it’s funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs being very stubborn. It doesn’t surprise me too much. When the GFS is a holdout it typically is so until inside 36-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The NAM wants to retire on a high note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It's just the way it is. There is certainly a chance the Euro and NAM are overly amped, right? For the love of God just go on air with 6-12" and satisfy DIT for once, ha. I think there's definitely a good chance the EURO is over-amped. I'm not seeing 0.2" of QPF out of this system up here like the EURO has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It doesn’t surprise me too much. When the GFS is a holdout it typically is so until inside 36-48 The GGEM at 12z looks not that far from the 18z GFS....and is likely why the 18z RGEM is pretty flat. Definitely two camps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: For the love of God just go on air with 6-12" and satisfy DIT for once, ha. I think there's definitely a good chance the EURO is over-amped. I'm not seeing 0.2" of QPF out of this system up here like the EURO has. I dunno...I wouldn't sell that yet. There's some support. NAM wasn't far off (yeah we know that doesnt count that much) and the Ukie supported it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Harv just split the difference between high and low models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 34 minutes ago, CT Rain said: My concern is that the amped up solutions are too amped. There are some lame outliers in the EPS suite too. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Harv just split the difference between high and low models. I think his call looks pretty good. NAM qualitative look...but we shave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 18 minutes ago, mreaves said: I love the fact that Ray is in Uganda, meeting his fiance’s family for the first time and is still pumping out calls on moderate events. That is dedication. Or insanity either way it’s funny. I don't think this is going to be as amped as some want.....and I can't even say that I hope that I'm wrong since I'll be adorned in a suite in 90*+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno...I wouldn't sell that yet. There's some support. NAM wasn't far off (yeah we know that doesnt count that much) and the Ukie supported it. I never know how to feel about the Ukie. I feel like it is like a GGEM with precip/surface/etc but I know the H5 scores are solid. I like a consensus mean of the guidance... 4-6" south of the Pike type event, 1-4" up to RT 2. But that's not that exciting to take a blend, ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 well i am excited at the prospect of it all melting the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 It’s a 4-8” event for 90% of SNE away from water and valley. Narrow zone of 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a 4-8” event for 90% of SNE away from water and valley. Narrow zone of 8-10 I'll take the under. Hope you're right for the board's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a 4-8” event for 90% of SNE away from water and valley. Narrow zone of 8-10 why would the valley be screwed unless the heaviest qpf is across the southern 50% of sne?....should not be any big down slope issues with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I think 4-8" is fine, even 3-6". 5-10" seems high a bit too high to me though, i would be a bit shocked if anyone went that high for a first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Harvey going old school. Splitting the baby (Boston) right down the middle. Good for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a 4-8” event for 90% of SNE away from water and valley. Narrow zone of 8-10 Away from the water and away from the valleys, lol. So like 90% of 50% of SNE? Just joking with ya, found that one sort of funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: Harvey going old school. Splitting the baby (Boston) right down the middle. Good for him I dont like the overlapping snowfall predictions, used to, but not anymore. Terrible for verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: I dont like the overlapping snowfall predictions, used to, but not anymore. Terrible for verification. Yeah but it looks better than saying 2-6" for a 50 mile wide swath of SNE. No shame in his game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take the under. Hope you're right for the board's sake. Get away from the weather and enjoy Uganda man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.