Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 00z GFS is looking fairly flat at 500 through hr 60. Progressive N/S wave with no real dig to the wave. This is not a favorable track for accumulating snows for us.When the CRAS is in line with the flat look the GFS shows, with the known bias the CRAS has to be extremely overamplified, that in and of itself should tell us which camp probably has the better idea. The gfs has been the king with the ns progressive nina pattern this season for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Horrible but gfs is in deadly range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Quite the spread at this range.. Naso good lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 00z GFS is looking fairly flat at 500 through hr 60. Progressive N/S wave with no real dig to the wave. This is not a favorable track for accumulating snows for us. When the CRAS is in line with the flat look the GFS shows, with the known bias the CRAS has to be extremely overamplified, that in and of itself should tell us which camp probably has the better idea. The gfs has been the king with the ns progressive nina pattern this season for a reason. That’s spot on. Think about it overall...how many progressive N/S waves coming in a west to east pattern ever give this region a hard hit of snow? Just no way for that coastal to get going fast enough or amplify near the coast, so you rely on the front end thump, which is less in a sheared flat pattern the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GGEM still looks goodLooks like crap. Ive seen clippers with longer precip periods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, yoda said: GGEM still looks good Looks like crap. Ive seen clippers with longer precip periods How does it look like crap? This was only a 8 to 10 hour period of snow and that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS still did trend North, although not a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The CMC and the Euro are likely to fold to the GFS by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 00z GFS is looking fairly flat at 500 through hr 60. Progressive N/S wave with no real dig to the wave. This is not a favorable track for accumulating snows for us. Hopefully the euro is right with a more amplified northern stream wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: GFS still did trend North, although not a whole lot. Cold air is gone though. Look where the high is...well off north and east so the wedge is also being eroded out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 That’s spot on. Think about it overall...how many progressive N/S waves coming in a west to east pattern ever give this region a hard hit of snow? Just no way for that coastal to get going fast enough or amplify near the coast, so you rely on the front end thump, which is less in a sheared flat pattern the GFS shows.The strange thing tho is how the NAVGEM has the most amped up solution. The overamped bias cras is flat AF. Left is right, up is down......im not sure what to think but yeah, definitely leaning towards gfs having the better general idea even if it is somewhat 'by itself' verbatim at the surface. A Vegas prop bet on taking the gfs right now would probably have a good payout. Put me down for a dollar :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 00z GFS is looking fairly flat at 500 through hr 60. Progressive N/S wave with no real dig to the wave. This is not a favorable track for accumulating snows for us. When the CRAS is in line with the flat look the GFS shows, with the known bias the CRAS has to be extremely overamplified, that in and of itself should tell us which camp probably has the better idea. The gfs has been the king with the ns progressive nina pattern this season for a reason. You actually looked at the cras? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Now that the GFS is better than the Euro are we going to need to start paying it to see it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: The CMC and the Euro are likely to fold to the GFS by 12z tomorrow. The way this season has gone...I wouldn't be surprised. Now if they don't fold...then what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Cold air is gone though. Look where the high is...well off north and east so the wedge is also being eroded out. The high placement is similar on both the GFS and EURO. One gives us snow and one doesn't. Every model run that has shown snow has a high retreating into the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I'll worry about the GFS more when at least one other model supports it (the CRAS doesn't count). The extended RGEM looks good. Cut back on snow a bit, mostly in SE areas (temp issues, I think), but there's a 4-6" strip along and NW of I95 with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, RedSky said: Now that the GFS is better than the Euro are we going to need to start paying it to see it lol No, just no. The GFS is not better than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Cold air is gone though. Look where the high is...well off north and east so the wedge is also being eroded out. That's also a function of lack of precip. If the WAA comes in hot and heavy then evap cooling would get things right. Imho- the warmer mids on the gfs are more related to having no precip than a big change in the antecedent airmass. ETA: I expect mixing in my yard either way. But the front end could be decent snowfall no problem if we get the slug in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hopefully the euro is right with a more amplified northern stream wave But deep down you know the GFS is more than likely right. It has prettt much be spot on with NS SWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 That's also a function of lack of precip. If the WAA comes in hot and heavy then evap cooling would get things right. Imho- the warmer mids on the gfs are more related to having no precip than a big change in the antecedent airmass. Yep. Weaker is the worst thing now. Not north or South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: The way this season has gone...I wouldn't be surprised. Now if they don't fold...then what? Then the pattern has truly shifted in our favor. We’ve seen this all year, I bet they fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: That's also a function of lack of precip. If the WAA comes in hot and heavy then evap cooling would get things right. Imho- the warmer mids on the gfs are more related to having no precip than a big change in the antecedent airmass. Hahaha...good reminder. I think I can remember at least 3 times in the last 24 hours that you've reminded us of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's also a function of lack of precip. If the WAA comes in hot and heavy then evap cooling would get things right. Imho- the warmer mids on the gfs are more related to having no precip than a big change in the antecedent airmass. ETA: I expect mixing in my yard either way. But the front end could be decent snowfall no problem if we get the slug in here. No question, but on that run it’s not supported. Just looks too suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 00z GGEM is a 3 to 5 inch storm... bullseye between DCA and BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, MD Snow said: Hahaha...good reminder. I think I can remember at least 3 times in the last 24 hours that you've reminded us of this. It's worked in our favor many times with snow to rain events over the years. If you can get an isothermal column with good rates, insitu CAD generally overperforms. Except with the RGEM. That meso seems too cold too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, cae said: I'll worry about the GFS more when at least one other model supports it (the CRAS doesn't count). The extended RGEM looks good. Cut back on snow a bit, mostly in SE areas (temp issues, I think), but there's a 4-6" strip along and NW of I95 with locally higher amounts. Where do you get that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 You actually looked at the cras?Always. It has proved to be a valuable tool at times if its known blas is used as guidance and not concrete modelology. I certainly wouldnt print out a surface map and take it to bed with me tho ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's worked in our favor many times with snow to rain events over the years. If you can get an isothermal column with good rates, insitu CAD generally overperforms. Except with the RGEM. That meso seems too cold too often. There have been many documented times if the front end thump over performing. Feb 21st 2015, Presidents Day 2016. All examples. Of course if the GFS scenario does happen, we get no front end thump whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GGEM is a 3 to 5 inch storm... bullseye between DCA and BWI I’m only seeing it out to 42 hours on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Despite the great euro run...the ensembles were not impressive right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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