Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GFS shows that any idea on the table. Basically anything from 0" to 10" is game at this point. Either it's on to something, and is the best model on the market, or it knows nothing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Looks similar to it's 6z run yesterday...seems a bit jumpy imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 There are some complete whiffs still showing up in the EPS and GEPS, but they're in the minority. 18z ICON shifted in the opposite direction as the GFS, so we might just be looking at some noise coupled with GFS bias. It has been the most progressive model with this system since day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GFS looks to be flat. The stuff never happens for a cutter or Midwest snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS looks to be flat. The stuff never happens for a cutter or Midwest snowstorm Probably just different pattern/situation. Not sure though. Maybe just GFS being GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 This was never going to be easy. And we have time for a trend North which seems more likely then a trend south lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I wouldn't be worried yet. GEFS should be somewhat telling but even they can just follow the OP. If the GEFS come in with a majority of more amped solutions then I think we can say this was just a bad run of the OP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- I should tune back out. Gfs is an unmitigated disaster. Didn't see that coming. We're still forever out there. We made it inside the magic day 5 wall so I think it's unlikely this completely disappears but it will continue to adjust and I still think north is likely the adjustment the final 36-48 hours or so. Also there are still a good 20-30% of ensembles that have no storm at all so each op run there is a chance one of those shows up. We aren't into the range where things are locked up. I think because it's been so long since we had anything this promising get into medium range we are rushing it. Still a lot of time for it to get better or all go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 When in doubt, go with the trend. And this winter it's trended towards warm on storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 The ECMWF 12z run of the euro with snow storm on Saturday. Too early to get into exact details (Sorry if this was already posted, lemme know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Just now, WeathermanB said: The ECMWF 12z run of the euro with snow storm on Saturday. Too early to get into exact details (Sorry if this was already posted, lemme know) Yeah it was already posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: The ECMWF 12z run of the euro with snow storm on Saturday. Too early to get into exact details (Sorry if this was already posted, lemme know) Lol at you thinking the Euro, showing a snowstorm no less, hadn’t been posted yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: DT posted EPS snowmaps on twitter. 14 look like total misses to me with 6 major (6”+) hits. Unfortunately the GFS likes this idea. Not a lot of margin for error, there is no blocking and it's up to how much the shortwave can dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 So what just happened? I been out running around, out of the loop.. so we got totally NAMed, and the 18z GFS totally lost the storm? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 18z cmc is a solid hit. Looks nothing like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We're still forever out there. We made it inside the magic day 5 wall so I think it's unlikely this completely disappears but it will continue to adjust and I still think north is likely the adjustment the final 36-48 hours or so. Also there are still a good 20-30% of ensembles that have no storm at all so each op run there is a chance one of those shows up. We aren't into the range where things are locked up. I think because it's been so long since we had anything this promising get into medium range we are rushing it. Still a lot of time for it to get better or all go wrong. We're certainly out of practice, lol And you're right...I think we just gotta kind of reset and just mentally keep this as "fantasy with potential" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: So what just happened? I been out running around, out of the loop.. so we got totally NAMed, and the 18z GFS totally lost the storm? LOL Basically. NAM would get DCA/BWI/IAD to double digits on the year (lol), and the GFS went the GFS way. Funny stuff, but potentially concerning stuff if we see this continue with the 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Lol at you thinking the Euro, showing a snowstorm no less, hadn’t been posted yet. For those of us who don't get snowmaps, what do the pretty colors mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: So what just happened? I been out running around, out of the loop.. so we got totally NAMed, and the 18z GFS totally lost the storm? LOL What happened is I’ll see everyone back at 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I am going to go out on a limb here- the 18z run of the GFS with an abrupt shift to a snowless, weak, flat mess, will not lead the way <80 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 29 minutes ago, Ji said: 43 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS looks to be flat. The stuff never happens for a cutter or Midwest snowstorm Yea it does parts of Ohio just had a 1-2 ft storm turn into a few inches last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Hasn't the GFS been the less bullish on this "snowstorm" all week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am going to go out on a limb here- the 18z run of the GFS with an abrupt shift to a snowless, weak, flat mess, will not lead the way <80 hours out. It's definitely an option on the table. But sorry I will put my faith on the 12z suite of model runs vs the off run of a somewhat jumpy GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: It's definitely an option on the table. But sorry I will put my faith on the 12 suite vs the off run of a somewhat jumpy GFS op. Yeah I have seen the ens members, and there are misses. So sure it is possible. But I think you and I agree on the propensity for the off runs to be more wonky. Purely anecdotal of course, so no need for anyone to throw up some verification numbers, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 18z GEFS looks drier. By a decent amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z GEFS looks drier. By a decent amount. Not a good run of the op or gefs. Hopefully a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 NAVGEM is still very amped. Doesn't it usually have a progressive bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z GEFS looks drier. By a decent amount. Totally expected. GEFS follows the op most of the time. One thing of note, as I just had a chance to look at the 12z EPS, snow mean was somewhat less impressive, and there were more than a handful of members with little to no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GEFS is just a herd mentality of the Op, so I wouldn’t give it more weight than normal. GFS has hopped around while the Canadian and euro have been pretty steady. I’d put my weight there for now. Sure, a flat solution is possible, but it’s the minority chance right now IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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