winterymix Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 0Z NAM looks generous, some 5 to 6 inch lollies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The NAM12 still has that relative precip min from Leesburg towards Towson early on. It fills in over MD, but because the initial precip there is light, the critical cooling in the column doesn't take place. You can see the split show up in the 850 temp field. Will see what the NAM3 does, as I would point more weight on that if it's different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, winterymix said: 0Z NAM looks generous, some 5 to 6 inch lollies. EZF is around 7 inches as max... Yes I know 10 to 1 map and the such... but I doubt they are the winners when all said and done. 850s actually help them hrs 24 and 25 while DCA and IAD and BWI tickle 0 to +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Second run in a row that the 12k NAM aims that northern band right at my yard. Not used to seeing the NAM so consistent. 00Z drops more than 0.50" here, all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 LWX just issued WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: LWX just issued WWA Also issued WSW for far western zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 912 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 MDZ003>006-502-503-505-507-VAZ028-031-505-WVZ050>053-504-171015- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.180217T1900Z-180218T0500Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Frederick VA-Clarke- Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Eastern Mineral- 912 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow. Snow may mix with sleet at times. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Northern Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, eastern West Virginia, northern Maryland, and the far northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. * WHEN...From 2 pm Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will begin between 2 and 5 pm Saturday. Snow may mix with sleet at times. Precipitation will end by midnight. Roads will become snow covered and slippery. Please allow extra time to get to your destination if you must travel. Visibility below one mile is expected at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow and sleet will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I had thought that a second advisory would go up for the eastern zones, but maybe not. Non rush hour WWA requires 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3k NAM has that 2 band type deal. 1 band pummels DC and immediate NW burbs bordering DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: I had thought that a second advisory would go up for the eastern zones, but maybe not. Non rush hour WWA requires 2-4". I have seen 1 to 3 WWAs before... guess they will wait till morning for eastern zones if needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 split is there on the NAM3 too. hard to ignore this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Why does the 3km NAM go from very heavy snow to rain around DC suburbs hrs 24 and 25? I am guessing the column should be isothermal and the rates look heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The warming trend in mid levels is troubling. Any more and it could even mix up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Imma gonna guess PSU, Highstakes, Losetoa6 get 6" after being under a death band for hours while I see 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Imma gonna guess PSU, Highstakes, Losetoa6 get 6" after being under a death band for hours while I see 3" Imma gonna guess you get 4” under a super band while I see white rain for three hours and then drive home in the pouring rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Why does the 3km NAM go from very heavy snow to rain around DC suburbs hrs 24 and 25? I am guessing the column should be isothermal and the rates look heavy It has a nasty warm layer. It's not isothermal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Dang...that warm middle finger goes right up the corridor into Balt. City...ack. Hope it trends colder! (Unless I'm not reading it right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Why does the 3km NAM go from very heavy snow to rain around DC suburbs hrs 24 and 25? I am guessing the column should be isothermal and the rates look heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It has a nasty warm layer. It's not isothermal. What are the chances with the warm layer that we go from snow to heavy sleet mixed with some rain? Any soundings support that idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Man that heavy stuff approaching Annapolis looks interesting I hope this works out for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 That is a nasty cutoff on the NAMs. Still holding on to the idea of a split precip shield for some reason? NVM. question was answered above. It is temp related. I cant see why it would play out that way. As long as the rates are heavy it should be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 That is a nasty cutoff on the NAMs. Still holding on to the idea of a split precip shield for some reason?Why the hell is there a split precip shield. Why can't we just get a normal event?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That is a nasty cutoff on the NAMs. Still holding on to the idea of a split precip shield for some reason? Why the hell is there a split precip shield. Why can't we just get a normal event?? Because we are paying for something we did earlier in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That is a nasty cutoff on the NAMs. Still holding on to the idea of a split precip shield for some reason? Why the hell is there a split precip shield. Why can't we just get a normal event?? Because this is the Snowhole of America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 16 minutes ago, high risk said: split is there on the NAM3 too. hard to ignore this close in. The split isn't nearly as bad as 18z. But the mid level warm layer is awful. It blasts that thing all the way up into southern pa even. Even up here mixes if that right. Hopefully it's over doing it for some reason. Will see soon with other guidance. This will suck if after all those fails due to no precip this one teases us then fails because of a last minute warm adjustment in temps. But I was more worried about a last second north trend the whole time. Just hope I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Maybe it’s just not handling the setup well. It is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Latest LWX accum map Lol they just issued an advisory for 2-5" then immediately lower my zone from 3-4 to 2-3. Why did they even issue the WWA then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Corrected map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Are the high res so high res...that they overdo stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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