Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Conversely, a degree the other way and this is white rain for DC. Much better to be N&W for this one. I'm an optimist and the GFS has a warm bias...right??....RIGHT?!?! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Maybe we'll get lucky and everyone jackpots with a 8" - 10" paste bomb. An event like St Patrick's day storm in 2014 and I'm happy with the winter of 17-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm an optimist and the GFS has a warm bias...right??....RIGHT?!?! lol Right. Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even though TT shows mix, this is an all snow sounding. Mix is based on surface temps only and we're only talking 34 degrees. No warm nose here. It's all snow. The TT plots are fun and convenient but in marginal situations like this we were better off back in the day when you had to take the individual plots and look at all the layers and figure out for yourself what the precip type was. Too many people now are just relying on that flawed algorythm on TT. One thing to consider...just like how "backside snow" is often a fake signal because those maps use the temp at the end of the period to estimate precip type the previous period... it works the other way sometimes during WAA where its showing rain but most of the period was snow. Just looking at those precip type plots is a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 The GFS run wasnt as awful as some were making it out to be...but that said we don't have nearly as much wiggle room as I would like right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 22 minutes ago, yoda said: no... its snowing at IAD hrs 84 and 90 I feel like people act like the 850 temps are somehow more accurately forecasted by the models. Like you see posts where people say it cannot snow because the 850 temps are 33 degrees during a storm that is 4-5 days away. It really is foolish to worry about small deltas in temps this far out. Especially with this type of set up. I would be more concerned with low track at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The GFS run wasnt as awful as some were making it out to be...but that said we don't have nearly as much wiggle room as I would like right now. It looks good for you. No issue there...0 wiggle in Manassas...lots of wiggle in Manchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Just now, PDIII said: I feel like people act like the 850 temps are somehow more accurately forecasted by the models. Like you see posts where people say it cannot snow because the 850 temps are 33 degrees during a storm that is 4-5 days away. It really is foolish to worry about small deltas in temps this far out. Especially with this type of set up. I would be more concerned with low track at this range. Agree just noting how they have warmed last couple runs. That’s all. I have little wiggle room so I get concerned about these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 33 minutes ago, Ger said: An event like St Patrick's day storm in 2014 and I'm happy with the winter of 17-18 You guys are setting the bar too high...sure we could hit the powerball and get that but lets shoot for something like just hitting the daily numbers and 3-4" here. Then if we pull off a miracle we can be happy but not disappointed with 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GEFS amped and North of 6z. About same for DC, but worse than 6z once you go SE. Snow mean same for DC and points NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Looks decent out here I guess. Not very excited about snow falling onto a 70 degree ground though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Looks decent out here I guess. Not very excited about snow falling onto a 70 degree ground though.Think we go over this every time and it never ends up mattering too much. Low Friday night is in the 20s. It’ll work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Looks decent out here I guess. Not very excited about snow falling onto a 70 degree ground though. Unlike 2/9/17 (storm last year that had a similar situation) we had a day before of cold temps. According to GFS, soil temps aren't as bad just before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm an optimist and the GFS has a warm bias...right??....RIGHT?!?! lol the GFS on the storm in early Feb where we got T-2 inches of snow and then ice...didnt have frozen precip for the DMV until the 12z run(the day of the storm) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Think we go over this every time and it never ends up mattering too much. Low Friday night is in the 20s. It’ll work. I couldn't agree more with this. Cold and windy Friday night and highs just above freezing Saturday will cool the ground from the warm days coming up. The ground wont be a frozen tundra by any means, but it will be just fine if we get decent rates from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 More knowledgeable folks of this board, is this cluster centered in WV/Western Pennsylvania on the GEFS the northern stream low being more dominant? All of those that do have that feature are rainstorms. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Unlike 2/9/17 (storm last year that had a similar situation) we had a day before of cold temps. According to GFS, soil temps aren't as bad just before the storm Long duration non accumulating snow is what I am hoping for. Anymore would be unreasonable for my location in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You guys are setting the bar too high...sure we could hit the powerball and get that but lets shoot for something like just hitting the daily numbers and 3-4" here. Then if we pull off a miracle we can be happy but not disappointed with 3". With this evolution (weak progressive low) it will be hard to reach those type of numbers seen St Pattys. More likely upside is the 3-4 you mentioned (6 at Mount PSU). That being said, the precip did increase from the 06Z. Drop the temp by a degree or two and a little better precip totals and you never know. This evolution though is the best chance we probably have to see close to a region wide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 8 of the 20 12z GEFS members have 3" or more for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 8 of the 20 12z GEFS members have 3" or more for DCA not too good only 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Just now, Ji said: not too good only 3 days out Sorry, I will make sure the GEFS does better than that on the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: not too good only 3 days out Yeah, but DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: not too good only 3 days out How many were there yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Looks decent out here I guess. Not very excited about snow falling onto a 70 degree ground though. LOL. The ground won't be anywhere near 70 degrees. It has been frozen solid for most of the winter. 36 hours of warmth ain't gonna warm it up that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 how about this...12/20 GEFS Members hardly give anything to DCA(2 inches or less) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: not too good only 3 days out WHAT almost 50% have a bigger event in DCA than the total accumulation all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Just now, Ji said: how about this...12/20 GEFS Members hardly give anything to DCA(2 inches or less) Anything is better than what we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I remember that one. Potatoes and pretty. lol As long as the track holds (seems like it is right now) then I know what to expect. An acceptable storm but unlikely to hit warning criteria in my yard. GFS/CMC/ICON all have near identical tracks. And they all work for most everyone until you get pretty far SE. Pretty good look so far @ 12z. I feel like EZF is in that pretty far SE contingent, we shall see. Might be time for a trip to my sister's in North Potomac anyway, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL. The ground won't be anywhere near 70 degrees. It has been frozen solid for most of the winter. 36 hours of warmth ain't gonna warm it up that much. You are correct. I am just beat down at this point after the past 2 years of suck I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: how about this...12/20 GEFS Members hardly give anything to DCA(2 inches or less) If you use that classification, that number was 15/20 yesterday. If DC records measurable, that's a plus. Bonus points if you can write a decimal after a digit of 1 or more for that total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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