Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 RPM pulled from the New England subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I know it's the ICON but if this plays out it will hurt... Subtract about .05 from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 It's cliche and all but the euro has been a granite boulder with this one. This jumping around at 18z doesn't shake me at all. We're good until around 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Seems like a slight trend so far at 18z. The transfer to the coastal seems to be becoming an issue. Not worth getting worried about yet but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's cliche and all bit the euro has been a granite boulder with this one. This jumping around at 18z doesn't shake me at all. We're good until around 1am. it's not a problem until it's a problem. i'll feel better about the icon if the gfs doesn't show that type of downsloping/dryness. it would seem a bit odd to have jumpy precip in this type of event since it's not a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I know it's the ICON but if this plays out it will hurt... Subtract about .05 from today. A forum divider if that were to verify...(hey, will northeast Bait. City do better than southeast if ya took this literally? Hahahaha One blob in one half lighter blob in the other!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The split idea could be real. It's gaining support. Can't ignore that. A screw zone between the banding along the baroclinic zone and the band further north with the best upper level support. It happens just unfortunate if it ends up setting up right through the corridor. I'm a little nervous the northern band shifts north more. If I don't break 3" I'm pretty sure that will be why. But it not a storm if im not nervous. At this point I'm rooting to get under the northern band and the 95 corridor is rooting for the southern one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's cliche and all bit the euro has been a granite boulder with this one. This jumping around at 18z doesn't shake me at all. We're good until around 1am. It's not time to panic but I'm not discounting the split screw job either. I've leaned on that euro can't be wrong at this range before and had it pulled out from under me. Anythings possible. But I don't trust the models to nail the location of those bands from this range anyways. Hopefully the euro is correct with a more consolidated look but even the euro did hint a bit at the split. It just wasn't nearly as pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Long live the snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Split schmit. You guys need a drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12z HRDPS has the split but the southern band is right through DC and the screw zone is along the mason dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Split schmit. You guys need a drink. It doesn't matter even if the idea is right where those bands set up is more nowcast thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 mappy will like the 18z RGEM...works for me at home too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I see the ICON has gone with a widespread 1-3" again. It's had that forecast, with relatively minor variations, on every run for nearly a week now. On the other hand it has been all over the place on what happens north of us once the coastal forms. I wonder if for some reason it has a hard time with coastal storms. We're still learning its strengths and weaknesses, but I wouldn't completely dismiss it. It did pretty well on January 17th. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50849-post-event-model-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=4821690 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 LWX basically thinks the timing will be 4-10PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Gfs added some to precip totals compared to 12z. Should be up to .4-.5 by 12z tomorrow. No split worries. Whew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gfs added some to precip totals compared to 12z. Should be up to .4-.5 by 12z tomorrow. No split worries. Whew! like you said it looks like things are getting locked in. the details will determine the boom/bust, but looks like we're gonna see some snow and given the way this winter has been, that's a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, cae said: I see the ICON has gone with a widespread 1-3" again. It's had that forecast, with relatively minor variations, on every run for nearly a week now. On the other hand it has been all over the place on what happens north of us once the coastal forms. I wonder if for some reason it has a hard time with coastal storms. We're still learning its strengths and weaknesses, but I wouldn't completely dismiss it. It did pretty well on January 17th. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50849-post-event-model-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=4821690 One of those columns is longer then the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Wouldn't shock me to see advisories after the 00z suite. The split thingy on the 12/18z probably shook some folks. Front is well past us in Reisterstown and the winds are howling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The best forecasting model in the world has been rock steady for 6 runs now and has the best outcome for us. I think we can take some solice in that. GFS has definitely improved but inside 96 hours I trust the Euro the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 It seems the cold front is pretty potent based on the obs being reported. Noticeably cooler with a stiff breeze in Alexandria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs added some to precip totals compared to 12z. Should be up to .4-.5 by 12z tomorrow. No split worries. Whew! I think some are looking at it wrong. There will be banding. It happens in every storm. But given the marginal temps and the short duration getting stuck between bands for a couple hours can have a more drastic impact than in a longer colder storm where it evens out more. And I do think the 3k nam and HRDPS with their higher res are picking up on the idea banding features. But there is no way to accurately place those meso features 24 hours out. That's like figuring out exactly where a line of thunderstorms will set up and where the severe cells will be. Yes someone will get hurt by subsidence between bands but that's not something worth worrying too much about 24 hours out. Now if tomorrow afternoon we can see on radar that we are going to be stuck between banding then it's legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Yoda... what do he SREF say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Here's DT's first call map if anyone's interested: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 DT's map isn't terrible, but his 2" - 4" zone just NW of BWI and DCA could bust if the chips fall the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 WWA issued @ 15:30 for down around Roanoke and Blacksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 It’s quite chilly out with the breeze. 48 here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 this is one of the worst winter storms ive ever tracked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, Ji said: this is one of the worst winter storms ive ever tracked Pretty sure there's been worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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