Amped Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Anyone catch this on the RGEM? 1.1" liquid in 3hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: With such a small stripe of the heaviest precip. This should make a lot of people nervous around the cities huh? Its 0.4 to 0.5 QPF and the 0.40 QPF is bountiful in the map Bob posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: With such a small stripe of the heaviest precip. This should make a lot of people nervous around the cities What? It's a uniform .4-.5 everywhere until you get east. There isn't a narrow zone at all. The color contours may give that impressive but QPF is pretty uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Anyone catch this on the RGEM? 1.1" liquid in 3hrs. Take a look at the 700mb Vorticity. I think it’s the crazy lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 We couldn't ask for better timing with the cold air. If skies clear tonight and temps drop below freezing (especially in the suburbs), then clouds roll in in the 6-9 am timeframe I think its possible many of us never get back above freezing before the precipitation arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 30 minutes ago, mappy said: can we reminisce about past storms in another thread please? I thought the reason Bob Chill brought up 12/2013 was to compare the surface temperature profile to the event tomorrow, not to reminisce. The lesson from that event was the models were too cold at the surface after the cold front...Hence the big forecast bust of a WSWarning verifying as 0.9" at DCA. Watching the surface temp drop tonight will be fairly important to the outcome tomorrow, IMO. As it is, the GFS is keeping inside beltway areas above freezing overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: I thought the reason Bob Chill brought up 12/2013 was to compare the surface temperature profile to the event tomorrow, not to reminisce. The lesson from that event was the models were too cold at the surface after the cold front...Hence the big forecast bust of a WSWarning verifying as 0.9" at DCA. Watching the surface temp drop tonight will be fairly important to the outcome tomorrow, IMO. As it is, the GFS is keeping inside beltway areas above freezing overnight tonight. I agree, but then followed up posts were those discussing it in detail. It diverts the discussion about this threat and can be discussed further elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Past weather events are frequently a good discussion tool for an upcoming event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, Tenman Johnson said: Past weather events are frequently a good discussion tool for an upcoming event yes, but not in the same place as the actual system being discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The Euro has most areas in the upper 30's to near 40 by noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I'm open to discuss my comment further in banter, lets get the thread back on track. My apologies for my involvement in the off-topic discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Pretty big model disagreement for within 24-hrs for the temp drop tonight. Euro and NAM get the metro areas safely below freezing overnight. As I said before, the GFS does not and is quite a bit warmer for the suburbs too. I think we'll have a pretty good idea of the accumulation situation for more urban areas by daybreak. If DCA is like 35F at 7 am, this will probably be like 12/5/09 in gradient with the Fall line being a very significant separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: The Euro has most areas in the upper 30's to near 40 by noon tomorrow. For reference, NAM has most areas in the mid 30s tomorrow before precip onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: The Euro has most areas in the upper 30's to near 40 by noon tomorrow. The Euro can overdo temps in CAD setups and I think it has done so for recent CAD events. Doesn't mean its wrong but worth noting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Pretty big model disagreement for within 24-hrs for the temp drop tonight. Euro and NAM get the metro areas safely below freezing overnight. As I said before, the GFS does not and is quite a bit warmer for the suburbs too. I think we'll have a pretty good idea of the accumulation situation for more urban areas by daybreak. If DCA is like 35F at 7 am, this will probably be like 12/5/09 in gradient with the Fall line being a very significant separation. Yep. A lot of moving parts with this storm, but if temps bust high I cant see how we get more than a white rain event for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 While the 3k NAM is more Euro-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: The Euro can overdo temps in CAD setups and I think it has done so for recent CAD events. Doesn't mean its wrong but worth noting Is this even considered a cad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Pretty big model disagreement for within 24-hrs for the temp drop tonight. Euro and NAM get the metro areas safely below freezing overnight. As I said before, the GFS does not and is quite a bit warmer for the suburbs too. I think we'll have a pretty good idea of the accumulation situation for more urban areas by daybreak. If DCA is like 35F at 7 am, this will probably be like 12/5/09 in gradient with the Fall line being a very significant separation. i don't think the general idea has changed much since yesterday. we need the rates and we need temps to drop accordingly overnight. at minimum, it looks like we'll get snow tv. if temps/rates work out, then we may end up with something to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: Pretty big model disagreement for within 24-hrs for the temp drop tonight. Euro and NAM get the metro areas safely below freezing overnight. As I said before, the GFS does not and is quite a bit warmer for the suburbs too. I think we'll have a pretty good idea of the accumulation situation for more urban areas by daybreak. If DCA is like 35F at 7 am, this will probably be like 12/5/09 in gradient with the Fall line being a very significant separation. Need that baro to build in. Gotta have it like 30.20+ by 2pm or rain trouble brewing. Not worried about 37F+ in the afternoon if baro is stout because if so dews will be low and evaporational will be 33-50% of spread and not a tepid 20-25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 18z DPs in the low-mid 20s per the 3km NAM and Euro. A bit higher on the GFS. We can do snow and 33/34 but it needs to be hitting hard. I never dropped below 32.8 on 3/25/13 but that was a good 4-5" at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is the straight QPF panel for the event. All snow for everyone west of the fall line for the most part. Accums will come down to surface temps and ratios. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Dunno, I think play the trends - warmer and drier, I expect we'll see the familiar R/Sn line set up where it usually does with the traditionally favorable areas seeing the best chances for accumulation but high bust potential for anything but some conversational white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Is this even considered a cad? Insitu CAD meaning a cold/dry airmass is in place but by the time precip gets here there won't be a classic CAD HP to the N-NE funneling cold in. We have to make do with whatever is in place at onset. Evap cooling as precip begins and a decent column to start can be preserved well if there isn't strong southerly midlevel and surface winds and precip rates are good (which looks good for now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 down to 50 at home with a NW wind. Front well and through IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: down to 50 at home with a NW wind. Front well and through IMBY same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I lost 6 degrees from evaporational cooling when precip started on 2/5. As long as temps don't get above 38-39 early tomorrow, I expect snow to accumulate here pretty much from the onset. Mid-March last year was the only time since 2/15/2016 that I have recorded a snowfall >2" but I think tomorrow exceeds that in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Insitu CAD meaning a cold/dry airmass is in place but by the time precip gets here there won't be a classic CAD HP to the N-NE funneling cold in. We have to make do with whatever is in place at onset. Evap cooling as precip begins and a decent column to start can be preserved well if there isn't strong southerly midlevel and surface winds and precip rates are good (which looks good for now). Yeah, the one advantage here is that we don't have a wound-up system that is trying to drive the warm air north. Low level winds are very light, and they aren't too bad in the lower mid-levels either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just got on 68 from 70. Rain and 48. Euro is WSW criteria in Deep Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, mappy said: down to 50 at home with a NW wind. Front well and through IMBY I've dropped 10 in last 90 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, the one advantage here is that we don't have a wound-up system that is trying to drive the warm air north. Low level winds are very light, and they aren't too bad in the lower mid-levels either. Great post. Exactly what I was trying to say but a nice pretty sounding does it much better. Surface on up to 850 is solid for the most part to support snow. Euro has 850s tickling 0 to +1 for a time but it appears brief. Assuming precip doesn't come in tepid, that should work until you get S and E of DC. Flakes will probably take on many shapes tomorrow. Pretty at times and banged up at other times. lol. Northern tier should be pretty good across the board for dendrites. They never lose the column. Depending on 800mb temps, a period of sleet is very possible south of DC and up to my yard etc. Upper moco should be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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