yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Thats not legit, it's showing mixed precip as heavy snow. That map illustrates everything that's wrong with 10:1 snowmaps. That's not what he is talking about... he is talking about where the heaviest snow is usually, and he is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 55 minutes ago, Interstate said: Dec 8-9 was way more significant... I know in Glen Arm I got around 8 inches. It was also a much colder event than tomorrow IIRC. Nearly 6" here, with very impressive rates early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: It was also a much colder event than tomorrow IIRC. Nearly 6" here, with very impressive rates early on. Dulaney Valley Rd was a mess. I remember it well visiting my son in the hospital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The RGEM ensemble might just be converging around the op, but 12z looks much better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro near carbon copy of last night. A little better at onset. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro near carbon copy of last night. A little better at onset. Nice run. Colder on the tail end from TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Yea, definitely better near the cities this run. Great trend for short leads. Looks like a solution is locked now. GFS is the driest but I'll go with the euro's widespread .5 qpf. Hasn't wavered much for 3 runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, yoda said: That's not what he is talking about... he is talking about where the heaviest snow is usually, and he is correct Sometimes it happens that way 1/26/11 and 2/2014 had heavy snow right near the changeover line. Other times the best lift is closer to the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 WIth the typical hole in MBY! and @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro Kuchera is 2" for DCA, 3" for BWI, 4" for Hoff & Mappyland. A weird "notch" that brings lower accums to the west of DC... for isntance, 3" in Bethesda, but 2" in Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Kuchera improved from last night. Better accums along the corridor. I really like this run honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Kuchera improved from last night. Better accums along the corridor. I really like this run honestly. Didn't know we just direct shared Euro from WxBell these days lol. I would have just done that instead of describing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Northern tier has a legit shot at warning criteria. If I get a clean 3" then I'm more than satisfied. I'll break double digits on the year! woo! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Didn't know we just direct shared Euro from WxBell these days lol. I would have just done that instead of describing it. We're not supposed to but I can do the time so I'm good with the crime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Kuchera improved from last night. Better accums along the corridor. I really like this run honestly. 1 This looks about right to me as well. The melt and sleet is going to keep it a 1 to 2" deal with some sweet spots seeing 2 to 3 unless you are in the northern or elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro has back to back runs @ 32 or below outside of the UHI areas by 0z. This is probably the game saver. Gotta hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The wet slop should cover the grass pretty easily without much slipping through the blades. 2 in will do it for me. That would be a win. Still time for minor fluctuations but this is how we play this game around here. No reason to reiterate where the best spots will be. We all know. At least we have something to do for the next 36 hours. That's a win. Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Surface @ 0z. Right in the middle of the precip shield. Areas that touch 32 or less could do better than they think unless a warm nose screws things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, definitely better near the cities this run. Great trend for short leads. Looks like a solution is locked now. GFS is the driest but I'll go with the euro's widespread .5 qpf. Hasn't wavered much for 3 runs now. Crazy how since the upgrades the GFS and Euro have kind of flip flopped positions on qpf where the euro used to be dr no and stingy with liquid and now its the gfs. I am not making any statement of which is more accurate, and given stability and support from the mesos I am leaning euro all the way here...great run as you said, but its just something I've noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 850's are touchy @ 0z on the euro around DC and the burbs but 925's are all good. My guess is if the precip rates are good then it's all snow for most. Could get some mangled flakes, rime, or sleet for a time but mostly looks like being on the winning side of marginal mids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Crazy how since the upgrades the GFS and Euro have kind of flip flopped positions on qpf where the euro used to be dr no and stingy with liquid and now its the gfs. I am not making any statement of which is more accurate, and given stability and support from the mesos I am leaning euro all the way here...great run as you said, but its just something I've noticed. Euro was the dry model for multiple light events in Jan. Seeing the euro line up with the mesos pretty much perfectly makes me feel pretty good. This is a rate driven event and the GFS is an outlier now with QPF. I really think this event breaks mostly right for everyone. We have all the mesos/ukie/euro looking similar and solid. I'm good with that. 18z GFS will probably juice up. I'm almost certain of it honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 can we reminisce about past storms in another thread please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Can someone post the euro (panasonic) precip map for the event? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Im guessing my 33 at 00z is cause nothing is falling from the sky lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Is it normal to have the DGZ and best lift at 500mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, definitely better near the cities this run. Great trend for short leads. Looks like a solution is locked now. GFS is the driest but I'll go with the euro's widespread .5 qpf. Hasn't wavered much for 3 runs now. Yep. If the Euro ends up verifying it is a landslide victory for that model. It has been rock steady for days. And I will take the 4-6 it shows and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can someone post the euro (panasonic) precip map for the event? Thanks. This is the straight QPF panel for the event. All snow for everyone west of the fall line for the most part. Accums will come down to surface temps and ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 With such a small stripe of the heaviest precip. This should make a lot of people nervous around the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yep. If the Euro ends up verifying it is a landslide victory for that model. It has been rock steady for days. And I will take the 4-6 it shows and run The tricky part is we're all in the mid 30's at onset so stickage won't be efficient until things wetbulb. Verbatim on the euro, your yard would prob get anywhere in the 2-4" range. 4"+ is going to be hard unless temps drop fast and qpf comes in higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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