psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS upped precip on the NW side ever so slightly but its doesn't matter to me because I'm a straight euro hugger right now. Never a guaruntee its wrong but the GFS has been all over the map on this one. Other guidance has been pretty steady actually with only minor adjustments here or there in the last 48 hours while the GFS flails all over. If this ends up close to what the consensus of other guidance shows then the GFS did nothing but add noise to the equation here. And even if something goes wrong and one of the many progs thrown out by the GFS ends up right it would still of been little use since there is no way to know what run to trust when its been jumping around so much. The GFS is much better then it used to be, and its a valuable tool overall...but its also a stubborn SOB sometimes and will go down with the ship on a wrong solution from time to time also. Unless something else today starts to indicate a weaker system is likely I wouldn't put much into it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Looks like all the models showing a stronger band settings up somewhere N or S of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 hours ago, HighStakes said: I agree. I felt all along this has 3-4 written all over it. 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Last couple runs of the 12k and 3k NAMs suggest maybe I should snow chase back towards my yard lol. Heavier precip gets in fast and stays in, and mid levels remain just cold enough. For places along and east of I-95, good rates could overcome the marginal column and result in a super wet paste bomb. If the low passes any further north or strengthens closer to the coast, those areas are definitely going to turn to rain though. 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Maybe I'm too optimistic but I always like snow to possible mix events versus the other way around. We have a pretty tight spread now and the euro has done really well with qpf at short leads more often than not this year. Especially with snow events. It came in dry with the recent light events and pretty much nailed it. I'm feeling really good after the 0z euro. Cooled thing in the mids and surface and had fairly widespread .5 qpf. If that holds at 12z then it's pretty locked in. The tl;dr version is I'm looking forward to my 2-3" and loseoa6/mappy/Psu may get their wsw criteria met. I could see there being two snowfall maximums with this (there often are in similar systems) where the heavier band closer to the low cools the column enough to create a 2-4" thump snow in a relatively short period. Then there probably will be a second band of heavier snowfall further NW that is jet enhanced and will have higher ratios that gets another snowfall max. Right now the 95 area is in play for the southern max and the area up here is in play for the northern max...but don't be shocked if there are some relative screw zones in between. Seen that kind of thing play out several times in similar situations. That is a nowcast type situation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 Looking at the temp profile of the GFS it improved at 850. The one place we needed to see it improve, 925 to the surface, degraded though. 925 retreats a little quicker up to the northern tier mid way through the storm but temps are still manageable with +1 (N of DC) to +2 (around DC) readings. And looking at the soundings it doesn't look like that warm layer is too deep around 925. Surface is the big hangup where we are seeing the temps 36-37 through the storm. These temps are more then likely the result of lighter rates we see with the the GFS being one of the drier models. Get better rates in and we more then likely see improvements from 925 on down to the surface as well as a snowier solution which would be more in line with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GFS is still coming in with the less snowier (frozen precip) solutions. Comparable snowfall map just that the distributions are a little different. We did see a slight uptick with precip through the region though. GFS is doing something no other guidance is doing with a pretty extreme separation between the two bands of heavier precip. It has the southern one way down in central VA and the northern one way up in central PA. Our entire region is stuck in the dead zone in between. The consensus of just about all other guidance is a more tightly organized system with both bands fairly close together...the northern one along the mason dixon line and the southern one somewhere near 95. Like I said just now unless the UK or Euro come in with sometime similar to the GFS I wouldn't put much stock into it. Its way off on its own with that look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: GFS is doing something no other guidance is doing with a pretty extreme separation between the two bands of heavier precip. It has the southern one way down in central VA and the northern one way up in central PA. Our entire region is stuck in the dead zone in between. The consensus of just about all other guidance is a more tightly organized system with both bands fairly close together...the northern one along the mason dixon line and the southern one somewhere near 95. Like I said just now unless the UK or Euro come in with sometime similar to the GFS I wouldn't put much stock into it. Its way off on its own with that look right now. Yeah, I baled on the GFS with this storm 2 days ago. Been nothing more then a conversational piece to discuss while waiting for the Euro to come out. I will say though that the last few runs you could definitely see it making a move towards the Euro solution. Kind of expect it to fully jump on the Euro solution tonight where we should see snowier/icier solutions pop up). That is if we don't see the GEFS do that shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 FWIW, 12z GGEM has a pretty decent 3-4" across most of LWX CWA (per the 10:1 TT snowmap for those who care lol) Also, 06z HRDPS is also 3-4" for most (also per TT 10:1 snowmap) Pretty decent on both I would say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: FWIW, 12z GGEM has a pretty decent 3-4" across most of LWX CWA (per the 10:1 TT snowmap for those who care lol) Good to see. A step up from 0z for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: I was wrong. ICON is brutal. 3 inches for BWI and nothing for DCA. But its the ICON. FWIW if your huggin models the 12z ICON and CMC were notably better than 6z./0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, 12z GGEM has a pretty decent 3-4" across most of LWX CWA (per the 10:1 TT snowmap for those who care lol) Starting to see a consensus forming. 95 will probably end up being the battleground from seeing decent snow to seeing snow that is more of the conversational variety. eta: but that is quite often the case anyway. So why do we even bother tracking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Is it just me or is the NWS still buying the GFS? Kind of surprised there aren't watches up for certain areas. Still has a general less than 1 inch for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Starting to see a consensus forming. 95 will probably end up being the battleground from seeing decent snow to seeing snow that is more of the conversational variety. eta: but that is quite often the case anyway. So why do we even bother tracking? Just said that in my other forum. Im cautiously optimistic that were going to pull off a Saturday Night Special. sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 This is probably totally anecdotal, but if the onset of precip is anything like last nights rain, we are in for a good start. I was in philly at it went from nothing to a deluge in about 2 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Is it just me or is the NWS still buying the GFS? Kind of surprised there aren't watches up for certain areas. Still has a general less than 1 inch for DC. i would think the fact that it's on a saturday has something to do it, not to mention the fringe temps. my guess is an advisory will go out at some point today and if they need to upgrade it they can with limited implications since there's no rush hour impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: i would think the fact that it's on a saturday has something to do it, not to mention the fringe temps. my guess is an advisory will go out at some point today and if they need to upgrade it they can with limited implications since there's no rush hour impact. Yea, it's not a work day and it's not like it's just going to stick on roads immediately or anything. They'll probably raise advisories with the afternoon package but be conservative with accums near the cities. From an impact standpoint, this event isn't that big of a deal. Main road accumulations in the populated areas won't come easy if at all. A standard 1-2/1-3" advisory would cover impacts no problem and since no rush hour is impacted there's not much reason to sound the alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 54 minutes ago, gymengineer said: I think people are mixing up 12/8-9/13 with 12/10/13. 12/8-9/13 was mostly a freezing rain event for the cities and suburbs after about an inch or so of snow. The northern tier got in on much more significant snow pre-flip. This was the Philly snow game. 12/10/13 was feared to be a mini-1/26/11-- a heavy snow blitz during rush hour. LWX issued a winter storm warning for the immediate metro regions. The federal government shut down as did area schools. . Dec 8-9 was way more significant... I know in Glen Arm I got around 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Time to wait for the meteogram -- 12z UKIE QPF at hrs 36 and 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Ukie looks pretty damn good to me. My guess is the meteos are mostly if not all snow for DC. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Starting to see a consensus forming. 95 will probably end up being the battleground from seeing decent snow to seeing snow that is more of the conversational variety. eta: but that is quite often the case anyway. So why do we even bother tracking? NAM says Rt.50 is the battleground... it has a shellacking for northern AACo even east of 95. I think thats what I'm trying to wrap my head around. will the R/S line be NE/SW oriented or E/W oriented here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: Dec 8-9 was way more significant... I know in Glen Arm I got around 8 inches. Agreed. I had 7" down the road from you. The was one of the best days of weather and sports I can remember. Drive to the Ravens game was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ukie looks pretty damn good to me. My guess is the meteos are mostly if not all snow for DC. heh. Just about lol... looks like 16 or 17mm of pasting and mashed potatoes as the 2mT sits around 32 and 850s around 0... I am sure with rates we can deal with a +1 850 at max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Just about lol... looks like 16 or 17mm of pasting and mashed potatoes as the 2mT sits around 32 and 850s around 0... I am sure with rates we can deal with a +1 850 at max Yea, that looks pretty good. Dicey at some point but certainly good snow at onset. Since I'm 15 miles NW of DC I'll go with all snow in my yard and move on to the euro. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Just about lol... looks like 17mm of pasting and mashed potatoes as the 2mT sits around 32 and 850s around 0... I am sure with rates we can deal with a +1 850 at max If this ends up being close to right, it would be 3-6 inches of heavy wet snow in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Just about lol... looks like 16 or 17mm of pasting and mashed potatoes as the 2mT sits around 32 and 850s around 0... I am sure with rates we can deal with a +1 850 at max I'm guessing you can't get the full soundings? With a warm nose tucking in between 900-950 mb's that might be the place to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I'm guessing you can't get the full soundings? With a warm nose tucking in between 900-950 mb's that might be the place to check. No, not on meteocentre... maybe Maue's new site that has the UKIE on there? ETA: He doesn't have sounding on there either... guess we have to take the meteogram on faith and use the Force lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 RGEM stands for Really Good at Everything Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I'm guessing you can't get the full soundings? With a warm nose tucking in between 900-950 mb's that might be the place to check. Good point, I'd guess the UKMET would spit out sleet during the period with the 850 temp above freezing but it's a close call as we really need to see the wet bulb temp which might be marginally lower especially early in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Mordecai said: RGEM stands for Really Good at Everything Model The heaviest accumulation is often just north and west of rain/snow line so it'll be important to see where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Good point, I'd guess the UKMET would spit out sleet during the period with the 850 temp above freezing but it's a close call as we really need to see the wet bulb temp which might be marginally lower especially early in the event. True, but I don't think there is a way to check UKMET soundings. Looking at what we have, it looks like it would be an isothermal sounding and would prob be snow if the rates are as high as the QPF map shows -- its hot and heavy as it arrives in our region. Maue's model website doesn't have soundings for the UKMET, so we are left to our best guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, peribonca said: The heaviest accumulation is often just north and west of rain/snow line so it'll be important to see where it sets up. Thats not legit, it's showing mixed precip as heavy snow. That map illustrates everything that's wrong with 10:1 snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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