psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, WVclimo said: LWX sure seems to be leaning that way also. Going with 1-2" north of I-70 in their afternoon discussion. Though they did nudge this product up a bit with the p.m. update, it's still a WWA call. Over the years it's funny but they seem to react to the previous storms and bust low or high here. In December they were cautious and we had 5-6" up here. Then they went way too high the last few storms up here and got burned. Now they go conservative and we will get a 6" thump snow lol. They have been see sawing on the wrong side for a while. I don't blame them its hard to ignore trends but it's just funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 18z RGEM came in pretty warm. Snow northern tier with rain for the cities. End of it's run though. I'm east of 95 and honestly just glad to have something to track with the chance of some snow falling at some point on Saturday. This was supposed to be a period where there was not a chance at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 29 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 18z RGEM came in pretty warm. Snow northern tier with rain for the cities. End of it's run though. it has a warm bias when it dosent give us snow:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Wow Steve D. going with really low snowfall accumulation numbers so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The 18z ggem is how we can totally fail. System is weak and south. Light precip into our area and warm. There is a small area of cooled air from convective cooling south of us in central VA that might get a thump but most of our area gets light snizzle. Not worried about that right now but since someone posted the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Wow Steve D. going with really low snowfall accumulation numbers so far. I don't know the dude and I don't want to upset him but over the years he has been way off quite a bit around here. He seems way better for NYC area but I'm not sure he knows or pays that much attention to climo down here. He never ever accounts for parrs ridge and the northern md hills for instance. And his maps often do funky thinks once southwest of Philly. Both high and low over the years. ETA: he might also be lowballing since he basically cancelled winter a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know the dude and I don't want to upset him but over the years he has been way off quite a bit around here. He seems way better for NYC area but I'm not sure he knows or pays that much attention to climo down here. He never ever accounts for parrs ridge and the northern md hills for instance. And his maps often do funky thinks once southwest of Philly. Both high and low over the years. ETA: he might also be lowballing since he basically cancelled winter a week ago. He has had his good and bad calls up here as well, no different then any other meteorologist. IMO he is low on his amounts but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know the dude and I don't want to upset him but over the years he has been way off quite a bit around here. He seems way better for NYC area but I'm not sure he knows or pays that much attention to climo down here. He never ever accounts for parrs ridge and the northern md hills for instance. And his maps often do funky thinks once southwest of Philly. Both high and low over the years. ETA: he might also be lowballing since he basically cancelled winter a week ago. He's more of a NY/NYC guy I think. I don't think he really forecasts for down here, but if that's the case, he would probably do well not to show our region on the map and have us color coded for some snow total if he's really not forecasting for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: He's more of a NY/NYC guy I think. I don't think he really forecasts for down here, but if that's the case, he would probably do well not to show our region on the map and have us color coded for some snow total if he's really not forecasting for our area. He covers NY, NJ and PA, but since there are some PA and NJ people that post in here I wanted post his thoughts, not saying I agree with them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: He's more of a NY/NYC guy I think. I don't think he really forecasts for down here, but if that's the case, he would probably do well not to show our region on the map and have us color coded for some snow total if he's really not forecasting for our area. Yea many do that though. I remember some of the news channels in D.C. used to have maps that went way into PA and WV but they payed no attention to what their snow map did once outsid their viewing area but I would notice and lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 NWS Pitt not expecting much for the mountains either - their map shows <1” for Canaan and Deep Creek. Hopefully we get a few inches out there while I’m there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 SREF is slowly adjusting South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 0z nam looking more juiced up at 33h so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, peribonca said: 0z nam looking more juiced up at 33h so far 850s were colder at hr 30. Rest hasn't updated yet, so I guess we'll see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 NAM weaker with digging SW...probably not a good thing but well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 00z NAM has a bit more snow in MO at hr 39 than did 18z at 45... and what I mean by that is its a bit colder in MO Also see KY and WV re snow at hr 45 on 00z NAM vs hr 51 on 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 dam nam looks juicy as a west Virginia peach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 NAM is deeper with 850 cold than 18 at 45 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Comes in guns blazing at 48... heavy snow at DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 South? Really NAM? That was the last think I expected tonight. I was convinced we were going to rain and torch. It's good. Really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 wow!!!! Huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 850s stay S&E of the cities. Surface barely gets above freezing even in the city. It comes in hot and heavy and cools the column nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, Ji said: wow!!!! Huge hit 850s are fine and 30 to 32 degrees during the pasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 850s stay S&E of the cities. Surface barely gets above freezing even in the city. It comes in hot and heavy and cools the column nicely. Hot and heavy is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 If you toggle back in forth on TT the last 3 runs of the NAM has trended cooler. Hopefully the other models follow along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 For being low at times, the snow depth panel isn't bad at all. General 1-2" in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 TT 10:1 map says 6 inches at DCA... snow depth says 1.7 per Pivotal... 2 to 4 seems a decent go between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 NAM really isn't that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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