Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 would you believe the 12z EPS snow nudged up a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I'm not going to get into this, but the sun is not "dead", trees are blooming in South Carolina for goodness sake. And I'm pretty sure the sun angle is more analogous to October at this point, not November. See UV indexes for reference. We aren't in South Carolina. We get snow in late February and early march with marginal temps all the time. I'm not getting into this with you because 150 years of snowfall records prove the point. Scoreboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Here's the CWG article Jason and I wrote. We're not very excited by the event but then Jason lives in DC and I live in Calvert County. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/15/wintry-mix-likely-saturday-night-with-best-chance-of-snowfall-north-of-d-c/?utm_term=.1b7e17e99fe7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol feel like this event should of done better with UL pattern. 50/50 low to far north. The block too far north in general. Annoyed that we let another high slip away to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: feel like this event should of done better with UL pattern. 50/50 low to far north. The block too far north in general. Annoyed that we let another high slip away to the east Who's "we"? Lol And as others PSU and Bob have reiterated....around here, even good looks need a little bit of good fortune...we are just striking out (kind of) this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: feel like this event should of done better with UL pattern. 50/50 low to far north. The block too far north in general. Annoyed that we let another high slip away to the east We are also missing the SSW... which has been missing all year. Everything is a north stream SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Now if we can get the NSW to dig under us... I think we would be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I am going to go out on a limb and say the NAM is not going to be better looking at the H5 at 36... I know it is early... but Edit: The H5 looked worse but the outcome looks better...lol This is will be a nowcast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: I am going to go out on a limb and say the NAM is not going to be better looking at the H5 at 36... I know it is early... but NS is faster and flatter, maybe a break even. 850s don't look as cold ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I'll take the 18z NAM... keeps rain east of i-95 as the SLP stays south and weak... N and W of I95 stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 At 57 0c 850 runs right through DC....nw crew should like it so far on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 big thump here...exactly what bob has been referring too. Big thump can overcome marginal 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Can we please move discussion of sun angle and road temps to banter. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 NAM had almost no snow in Ohio last run. This is a pretty big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 We needed that NAM run. happy hour starting off right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Named Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 NAM is nice! First call 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, mappy said: Can we please move discussion of sun angle and road temps to banter. Thanks. Dang gone it Mappy. I was finding it entertaining. Sure beats looking at the NAM's snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Named That includes a lot of mix and sleet. By 03z its showing rain over DC and up 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The great NAMBINO! Overdone, but whatever. It would be nice if we could get into the CCB snows, but it looks like that's going to be farther north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, mappy said: That includes a lot of mix and sleet. By 03z its showing rain over DC and up 95 who cares about DC. This storm is for the North and West suburbs...who have been screwed all winter. Especially West. It looks like NAm keeps me all snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Leesburg sounding at 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Snow-depth map is a bit depressing, though I find those typically as underdone as the Kuchera is often overdone, though Kuchera looks more realistic with this storm. It seems to be picking up on the low ratio snows whereas it typically seems to overestimate how high the ratio will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: who cares about DC. This storm is for the North and West suburbs...who have been screwed all winter. Especially West. It looks like NAm keeps me all snow lol OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Snow-depth map is a bit depressing, though I find those typically as underdone as the Kuchera is often overdone, though Kuchera looks more realistic with this storm. It seems to be picking up on the low ratio snows whereas it typically seems to overestimate how high the ratio will be. Yeah, it seems like maybe a blend between snow depth map and Kuchera would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Named Even if we get 60-70% as shown, many here would be giddy. Saturday night special starting to look likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yeah, it seems like maybe a blend between snow depth map and Kuchera would make sense. Yeah I was thinking the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: These can be just as misleading as the 10 to 1 maps in a marginal situation. True snowfall probably falls in between both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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