Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: Nothing to worry about Bob. This winter just seems to want to snow. Exactly. Other than ground temps, dicey midlevels, uncertain track, strength of the low, and size of the precip shield...this one is very uncomplicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's an absolute textbook pasting type of deal for upper moco/parrs/northern tier. We've seen many like this. Early Dec 2013 comes to mind among others. I liked seeing the 3k come in like a wall. That's what we need. Evap cooling/wetbulbing etc to get the column right and then it can fight back instead of fight to get right. IF (skyscraper sized if) WAA just rolls in and starts dropping white missiles and parachutes then closer in could do well before problems arise. If it comes in tepid with a bunch of non-sticking snow before the southerly push in the mids starts winning then I'm fooked. lol. the dec 13 one was fun. i have some pics of that as i went chasing a bit to gburg/germantown. it was a blizzard for an hour or two with road stickage, but not much down by the lowlands aka bethesda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm keeping it low key. 2-3" seems like a reasonable # for my yard and that's hedging on the optimistic side. If I crack 3" then it's a pretty big victory honestly. This isn't a cold smoke powder bomb and daytime onset will probably waste the first inch unless it comes in strong. We've had enough of these types of events over the last 10 years to set expectations accordingly. Ultimately, I just want to rule our all rain or no precip. Very close to doing that. Prob by 0z tonight calls like that can be made. well damn, if you think 2-3" for you is reasonable then I'm pretty close to warning level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: well damn, if you think 2-3" for you is reasonable then I'm pretty close to warning level snow. I think that’s absolutely in play for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's an absolute textbook pasting type of deal for upper moco/parrs/northern tier. We've seen many like this. Early Dec 2013 comes to mind among others. I liked seeing the 3k come in like a wall. That's what we need. Evap cooling/wetbulbing etc to get the column right and then it can fight back instead of fight to get right. IF (skyscraper sized if) WAA just rolls in and starts dropping white missiles and parachutes then closer in could do well before problems arise. If it comes in tepid with a bunch of non-sticking snow before the southerly push in the mids starts winning then I'm fooked. lol. Agreed on all front. I'm busy as anything at work, but I want to look at the soundings in the area on Bufkit to get an idea on what models are seeing in terms of thermals and ratios. I'd bet money that if the precip comes in hot, we could see a few inches for many before any concerns. I'd love to be able to head up to Losetoa and PSU-land. Those areas in the northern hills look prime for a nice paste bomb if we can get the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: well damn, if you think 2-3" for you is reasonable then I'm pretty close to warning level snow. Your only issue is precip shield imho. The stripe is pretty narrow. My gut says that you get pasted but if the heavies stay east then that's probably the only thing to cut down your totals. I'm like 95% sure you're going to be all snow for the bulk of if not all of the precip that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think that’s absolutely in play for you. Thanks. I have been keeping my expectations tempered since the models haven't quite being consistent on temp/amounts. I will happily take whatever falls of course, but a warning level event would be nice. I've seen people mention the early Dec 2013 snow and I did pretty damn well in that event (7"). 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You're only issue is precip shield imho. The stripe is pretty narrow. My gut says that you get pasted but if the heavies stay east then that's probably the only thing to cut down your totals. I'm like 95% sure you're going to be all snow for the bulk of if not all of the precip that falls. Fair assessment. I need 0.8" to beat last years 12.5", anything more than that is a bonus IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Agreed on all front. I'm busy as anything at work, but I want to look at the soundings in the area on Bufkit to get an idea on what models are seeing in terms of thermals and ratios. I'd bet money that if the precip comes in hot, we could see a few inches for many before any concerns. I'd love to be able to head up to Losetoa and PSU-land. Those areas in the northern hills look prime for a nice paste bomb if we can get the precip. If you ever do come up let me know. Visitors are welcome. Also Christmas Tree Park in Manchester is a great spot. It's up on top of a ridge at about 1,080 feet and usually does very well and some nice scenery including a short trail through the woods and around a lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Euro? Shortwave looked like it had more dig relative to 12z yesterday but that’s all I get from the TT maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro? Shortwave looked like it had more dig relative to 12z yesterday but that’s all I get from the TT maps. knock on wood but it may look a tiny bit better than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Euro looking pretty good folks. Comes in hot and heavy by 0z. Money panel isn't yet though. Great run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Great run so far IMO through 60... looks more like yesterdays 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 more north with the frozen stuff but more snowy for us at 00z then last night runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Warmer in the mids though. Man it's dicey. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 When the euro doesn’t really budge run after run within 3 days, you should feel pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 It's so close with temps. But assuming the layer is exactly isothermal at 32 it could be a good front end thump. Ninjad by @Bob Chill yea it's dicey with temps. But euro runs warm right. So take euro qpf and 3k nam temps and boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Decent run but not a fan of the mid levels rotting so quick. Definitely a mixed event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Mid levels suck on Euro...definitely a climo storm at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Great run so far IMO through 60... looks more like yesterdays 12z EURO its not like yesterdays euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Decent run but not a fan of the mid levels rotting so quick. Definitely a mixed event for most. all snow is best, but i'm perfectly ok with an accumulating snow to mix/rain scenario. i'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Ji said: its not like yesterdays euro If the mid levels were better it would look like it IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Euro Kuchera: Obviously warmer than last run, but front end thump not bad at all, maybe a bit juicier than last run. Supports general 1-2" in cities, 2-4" in favored areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's so close with temps. But assuming the layer is exactly isothermal at 32 it could be a good front end thump. Ninjad by @Bob Chill yea it's dicey with temps. But euro runs warm right. So take euro qpf and 3k nam temps and boom Through 0z looks good for snow then things go a little haywire. 850's up to +3 by 6z along the corridor. Precip is mostly done by then so what happens between 0-6z makes or breaks it. My 2-3" call is optimistic but probable on the euro. Not much room to wiggle anymore. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Decent run but not a fan of the mid levels rotting so quick. Definitely a mixed event for most. It even changes to rain up here. Nice thump first but first time anything showed mixing up here. It's almost identical with qpf but it's warmer. Only takes a 2 degree difference when it's so borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you ever do come up let me know. Visitors are welcome. Also Christmas Tree Park in Manchester is a great spot. It's up on top of a ridge at about 1,080 feet and usually does very well and some nice scenery including a short trail through the woods and around a lake. Thanks PSU. I have to work during this event, but I want to visit up there and take in the scenery sometime. Go hiking and visit the local parks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: If the mid levels were better it would look like it IMO no it wouldnt. not even close. its like half the qpf of yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Through 0z looks good for snow then things go a little haywire. 850's up to +3 by 6z along the corridor. Precip is mostly done by then so what happens between 0-6z makes or breaks it. My 2-3" call is optimistic but probably on the euro. Not much room to wiggle anymore. That's for sure. do you know what time window the precip is supposed to begin? is it an afternoon deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: do you know what time window the precip is supposed to begin? is it an afternoon deal? Between 3-5pm from south to north. Best guess based on the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Between 3-5pm from south to north. Best guess based on the panels. thanks, daytime snow > nighttime snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: do you know what time window the precip is supposed to begin? is it an afternoon deal? seems to move in earlier than models had it yesterday. mid-afternoon to early evening for you southerners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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