Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

[Chris78]

Cmc is really meh for everyone.  Really cut back in precip.

[87storms]

25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z CMC isn't gonna do it for many, based off the surface/850/precip products on TTT. 850s work in NMD/Central MD but even there it doesn't have temps below 32 at the surface, verbatim. 

yea, the antecedent airmass is not ideal.  it legitimately feels like spring out.  not saying it can't snow the next day, but it obviously presents some challenges.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

yea, the antecedent airmass is not ideal.  it legitimately feels like spring out.  not saying it can't snow the next day, but it obviously presents some challenges.

No offense, but this discussion has been beaten to death. We have had  legit accumulations following warm days. It's really silly at this point. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

I agreed with you 100%.  I just want to temper everyone expectations on what will actually be on the ground.  The snowfall maps could show 3-5 inches and it all could just be white rain.

I am kinda LOL right now at how people with their own preference (skeptical vs optimistic) are throwing around those maps.  When you have a borderline situation like this where we are relying on an isothermal layer right near freezing the difference between the more conservative formulas and the more liberal ones can be drastic.  1 degree makes a HUGE difference so of course minor differences in the calculations make a huge difference in these.  But the conservative maps don't mean people being hopeful because of the more liberal ones are crazy.  They are both valid they are just using different equations to ESTIMATE what will happen.  We are obviously right on the line here so different interpretations will give different results but we don't know yet which side of the line this will tip towards.  But I stuck with my "north is going to be the bigger problem" yesterday when some stuff went south and some people were worried about a lack of enough amplification and one person was worried online about some vort washing out over the south pacific (still not sure why he thought that was the key feature) but I feel like in the end we will be back to worrying about temperatures and the wave not trending any more north.  I was happy yesterday when some stuff went south...and still think the north trend might get us in the end.  

[mappy]

32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z CMC isn't gonna do it for many, based off the surface/850/precip products on TTT. 850s work in NMD/Central MD but even there it doesn't have temps below 32 at the surface, verbatim. 

without seeing a sounding its hard to say. easterly wind, even with 850 being warm, it would cool upon start of precipitation. much like what the 3K NAM was hinting at. Would need precip to come in heavy however. 

[osfan24]

Agree that the wave going north might ultimately be the issue, but lack of precip seems to suddenly a concern. Models have cut back significantly there AND there's been a trend this winter for a lot of storms to underperform modeled precip anyway. It takes away the high-end potential while also making you wonder whether you will get the rates for a long enough period of time for real accumulation to occur.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Agree that the wave going north might ultimately be the issue, but lack of precip seems to suddenly a concern. Models have cut back significantly there AND there's been a trend this winter for a lot of storms to underperform modeled precip anyway. It takes away the high-end potential while also making you wonder whether you will get the rates for a long enough period of time for real accumulation to occur.

I was gonna say the same thing...Seems drier may end up being more of a concern...(especially if it were to tremd any further north, because you'd need a fast and heavy start)

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Agree that the wave going north might ultimately be the issue, but lack of precip seems to suddenly a concern. Models have cut back significantly there AND there's been a trend this winter for a lot of storms to underperform modeled precip anyway. It takes away the high-end potential while also making you wonder whether you will get the rates for a long enough period of time for real accumulation to occur.

I'm gonna throw my hat into the ring and agree with this. If the precip comes in light the evap cooling isn't going to happen that much and it ends up being a 'white rain' to 1-2" jackpot type storm.

[yoda]

Good amount of QPF on 12z UKIE on the 60 hr and 72 hr QPF maps

hr 60 image

 

hr 72

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I like what the 3k is showing at onset. This works. Insitu CAD would put up a good fight even in the lower elevations/UHI areas. Nice WAA thump going on right here.

 

If we were 12 hours out I would love how MOST of the 12z guidance came in.  I think based on what we are seeing now if this was verification things would fall our way.  Its close but I have the feeling it would be a win.  People are over reacting to some borderline temperatures but get a nice WAA thump like you keep saying and we can overcome that.  Its just been so long I think people forget.  The default setting/expectation is fail now.  

My reluctance to get too excited would be I am not sure this is the final look.  Even yesterday when things shifted south I kind of still felt come game time over amped would be a bigger problem then south.  We are running out of any wiggle room here for the DC-BWI corridor.  The equation that makes the WAA thump idea works only works if the thermal profile doesn't degrade any further.  If the track shifts much more north the heaviest precip could end up focused north also...plus the boundary will shift north so temps will degrade further.  
 

I am not fatalistic...this is still our best shot in a long time, and models have been pretty good inside 72 hours this year with only smaller adjustments usually...but we can't take any more adjustments at this point.  Hopefully even if the track makes a SLIGHT adjustment north perhaps it trends even more juiced up and the thump can overcome for a while.  I am cautiously hopeful but guarded knowing the history of these type waves is a north adjustment the last 48 hours.  

[Thanatos_I_Am]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Good amount of QPF on 12z UKIE on the 60 hr and 72 hr QPF maps

hr 60 image

 

hr 72

Looks warm?

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Looks warm?

Could be... meteogram not out yet... but would rather have this type of run over the GFS/CMC... hot and heavy arrival and we go from there

I fixed the hour 72 QPF map on my post btw so it would be the correct one from today (12z 2/15 run)

[usedtobe]

4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Looks warm?

Looks like the low goes to WV so it looks warm though without temps you can't be totally sure.

[87storms]

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

No offense, but this discussion has been beaten to death. We have had  legit accumulations following warm days. It's really silly at this point. 

yea, but i think it's a valid concern.  doesn't add much to the thread, but just pointing out that we're going to be in "monitor the temps falling" mode tomorrow night.  upper levels seem like they'll be in our favor, but i'm more concerned around cities with the stickage factor.  i've seen it happen both ways, so we'll see.  i'm definitely on the amped train.  i'd rather see a thump and let the rates overcome any issues than have us deal with light precip that doesn't accumulate.

[mappy]

Just now, 87storms said:

yea, but i think it's a valid concern.  doesn't add much to the thread, but just pointing out that we're going to be in "monitor the temps falling" mode tomorrow night.  upper levels seem like they'll be in our favor, but i'm more concerned around cities how well we'll do as far as stickage.  i've seen it happen both ways, so we'll see.  i'm definitely on the amped train.  i'd rather see a thump and let the rates overcome any issues, then have us be in light precip that doesn't accumulate mode.

Fair enough. I do have to keep in mind that things are so much different down in the sub-tropics than my backyard  

[yoda]

I'd take the 12z UKIE and run   This is for DCA -- 2mT right at 32 and 850's -1 or so... looks like 13 to 15mm of what would likely be all snow if we take this meteogram exactly as is... mashed potatoes with a pasting to go please

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I'd take the 12z UKIE and run

 

Meteograms out?

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Meteograms out?

Yes, just posted above in my edited post above yours

[clskinsfan]

Pretty wild differences on the models for my area from such a short lead time. The Gfs is almost suppressed south of me but cold enough to snow. The ukie cuts to the west it appears and soaks us all. I am curious to see what the Euro has to say this run. It has been pretty much rock solid the past 5 runs. Doesn' mean it' right. Especially this winter where it has struggled a little bit. But usually when it sticks with a solution for this long it is money.

Edit: I was wrong about the Ukie

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty wild differences on the models for my area from such a short lead time. The Gfs is almost suppressed south of me but cold enough to snow. The ukie cuts to the west it appears and soaks us all. I am curious to see what the Euro has to say this run. It has been pretty much rock solid the past 5 runs. Doesn' mean it' right. Especially this winter where it has struggled a little bit. But usually when it sticks with a solution for this long it is money.

Verbatim, 12z UKIE meteogram at DCA is a pasting as seen above in my post... so 12z UKIE should be great out your way

[Bob Chill]

Looks like convergence is ongoing with the middle of the blend looking like a accum event for most with climo favored looking really good. Hard not to like that. My yard always falls somewhere in the middle with this stuff. I feel pretty good for some stats to put up that don't include a decimal point first. lol

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like convergence is ongoing with the middle of the blend looking like a accum event for most with climo favored looking really good. Hard not to like that. My yard always falls somewhere in the middle with this stuff. I feel pretty good for some stats to put up that don't include a decimal point first. lol

I think you would like the pasting the 12z UKIE gives us lol... hope that the EURO either stands at 12z with a similar solution to 00z or gets a lil better like the 12z UKIE is

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like convergence is ongoing with the middle of the blend looking like a accum event for most with climo favored looking really good. Hard not to like that. My yard always falls somewhere in the middle with this stuff. I feel pretty good for some stats to put up that don't include a decimal point first. lol

If we can get things to bust cold on Friday night into Saturday that will be quite helpful. That and the front end being juiced.  We get both those and more folks will jackpot.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I think you would like the pasting the 12z UKIE gives us lol... hope that the EURO either stands at 12z with a similar solution to 00z or gets a lil better like the 12z UKIE is

If the euro doesn't throw any wrenches in the mix then we're close to locking in the general idea. Can never rule out last minute surprises but all systems go so far. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If we can get things to bust cold on Friday night into Saturday that will be quite helpful. That and the front end being juiced.  We get both those and more folks will jackpot.

I'm keeping it low key. 2-3" seems like a reasonable # for my yard and that's hedging on the optimistic side. If I crack 3" then it's a pretty big victory honestly. This isn't a cold smoke powder bomb and daytime onset will probably waste the first inch unless it comes in strong. We've had enough of these types of events over the last 10 years to set expectations accordingly. Ultimately, I just want to rule our all rain or no precip. Very close to doing that. Prob by 0z tonight calls like that can be made. 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like convergence is ongoing with the middle of the blend looking like a accum event for most with climo favored looking really good. Hard not to like that. My yard always falls somewhere in the middle with this stuff. I feel pretty good for some stats to put up that don't include a decimal point first. lol

I am starting to feel fairly comfortable where we stand as well. Typical climo event. I may be going a little bullish over others but I'm liking the cities getting a 1-3, 2-4 type deal. 1-2 south and east. And of course N/W with 3-6 with the jackpots in the typical locations. Now watch the Euro pull the rug out from underneath us.

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If the euro doesn't throw any wrenches in the mix then we're close to locking in the general idea. Can never rule out last minute surprises but all systems go so far. 

I honestly like the setup for NW of the cities. Nothing over the top, but a nice wet snow for many. I can see 4-7" of paste up by Losetoa, PSU, Highstakes and Mappy and 2-5" elsewhere before we head towards the cities. 1-3" for Baltimore and 0.5-1.5" for DC. I'll take whatever snow I can get. I want to hit double digits at home if possible. Only need a smidge over 2"

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I honestly like the setup for NW of the cities. Nothing over the top, but a nice wet snow for many. I can see 4-7" of paste up by Losetoa, PSU, Highstakes and Mappy and 2-5" elsewhere before we head towards the cities. 1-3" for Baltimore and 0.5-1.5" for DC. I'll take whatever snow I can get. I want to hit double digits at home if possible. Only need a smidge over 2"

The other thing to note is that this appears to be a wet snow so it might bring some tree/power lines down.  The wet snow seems to have an easier time accumulating on non paved surfaces.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I honestly like the setup for NW of the cities. Nothing over the top, but a nice wet snow for many. I can see 4-7" of paste up by Losetoa, PSU, Highstakes and Mappy and 2-5" elsewhere before we head towards the cities. 1-3" for Baltimore and 0.5-1.5" for DC. I'll take whatever snow I can get. I want to hit double digits at home if possible. Only need a smidge over 2"

Yea, it's an absolute textbook pasting type of deal for upper moco/parrs/northern tier. We've seen many like this. Early Dec 2013 comes to mind among others. 

I liked seeing the 3k come in like a wall. That's what we need. Evap cooling/wetbulbing etc to get the column right and then it can fight back instead of fight to get right. IF (skyscraper sized if) WAA just rolls in and starts dropping white missiles and parachutes then closer in could do well before problems arise. If it comes in tepid with a bunch of non-sticking snow before the southerly push in the mids starts winning then I'm fooked. lol. 

[Jandurin]

Nothing to worry about Bob. This winter just seems to want to snow.