mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Agree with most sentiments. 12K NAM is naso good for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 12z ICON decent from N VA north into MD... nice thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: NAM looks like a reboot of the March 2013 fail event. If you're talking about the one that ended up as mostly rain in the city, that was a really good event for those of us farther to the west. ~8" out here, if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, mattskiva said: If you're talking about the one that ended up as mostly rain in the city, that was a really good event for those of us farther to the west. ~8" out here, if I remember correctly we got 6 when i expected 12-18. So the storm sucked for Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 i mean the euro has shown mostly a snowstorm that past 4 or 5 runs with varying degrees of QPF. That should mean something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I like what the 3k is showing at onset. This works. Insitu CAD would put up a good fight even in the lower elevations/UHI areas. Nice WAA thump going on right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I like what the 3k is showing at onset. This works. Insitu CAD would put up a good fight even in the lower elevations/UHI areas. Nice WAA thump going on right here. yep....that was a good panel for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Another good panel. Surface winds are very light with an easterly component. Not a good scouring signal right here either. Mids would probably lose out to sleet through the corridor but overall I'd be happy with the 3k's version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: we got 6 when i expected 12-18. So the storm sucked for Leesburg At least you weren't in the city. I have to admit to laughing hysterically at Jim Cantore in the city with an umbrella and a very sour look on his face as he covered the "blizzard" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I like what the 3k is showing at onset. This works. Insitu CAD would put up a good fight even in the lower elevations/UHI areas. Nice WAA thump going on right here. I'm still wondering how much would fall in the dark?...Any timing changes or is it still like a Saturday afternoon-midnight thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, mattskiva said: At least you weren't in the city. I have to admit to laughing hysterically at Jim Cantore in the city with an umbrella and a very sour look on his face as he covered the "blizzard" cantore had the same look in March 2001..sitting in DC with showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: yep....that was a good panel for sure! I'm pretty sure I don't stay all snow with this one but that's fine. If I get a period of heavy rates that sticks to everything including trees and such it will look like a winter wonderland for a time. Front end needs to come in hot and heavy. Pretty compelling case for that building right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 One thing about it, the snow will be short lived with mid 50's Sunday and 70's next week. Strong sun angle. Spring is almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm still wondering how much would fall in the dark?...Any timing changes or is it still like a Saturday afternoon-midnight thing? Looks like mid-late afternoon start with the heaviest stuff right after dark. This is sim radar @ 7pm. Looks pretty damn good. Globals aren't much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I like what the 3k is showing at onset. This works. Insitu CAD would put up a good fight even in the lower elevations/UHI areas. Nice WAA thump going on right here. That's definitely the hot and heavy look we want, though we don't know what the next panel looks like. Even still, let's hope this is a sign of things to come. The other NAMs were pretty close to a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: One thing about it, the snow will be short lived with mid 50's Sunday and 70's next week. Strong sun angle. Spring is almost here. Sun angle again? Really? And with the way the pattern is setting up, if it comes to fruition like the GEFS has been showing, spring is not likely to be here next month (as in highs above the 50s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Sun angle again? Really? And with the way the pattern is setting up, if it comes to fruition like the GEFS has been showing, spring is not likely to be here next month (as in highs above the 50s) Spring will be here regardless of weather conditions. Met spring begins in 2 weeks, with Spring following in a little over 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS looks close to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS throwing us a bone maybe? Hmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS still light on precip but i do like how it keeps the western and northern burbs in the snow till 6z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS looks like a hot mess. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS looks close to 6z. You and I would straddle the r/s line. Fun times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Hmm... the 12z extended RGEM looks like it cut back on snow quite a bit. Nothing for DC or anyone east of 95. Temp issues. I don't take the RGEM too seriously until it gets within 48 hours (and even then it can have some problems at range), but it's still not good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 dont like the GGEM temps at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: You and I would straddle the r/s line. Fun times! We get a nice 2-3” thump then probably mix or white rain. I’m good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 For once I am happy to be living in Leesburg. This may be a Leesburg on west storm with the rain/snow line hovering around Dulles or so. Typical NW Burbs storm looks most likely here. Can't wait to see the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Spring will be here regardless of weather conditions. Met spring begins in 2 weeks, with Spring following in a little over 30 days. Thanks for the input. Noone here knew that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 12z CMC isn't gonna do it for many, based off the surface/850/precip products on TTT. 850s work in NMD/Central MD but even there it doesn't have temps below 32 at the surface, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS looks fine for a snow event for most of the area. Areas just to the west of the cities and to the south and east will likely see the thermal layers aloft become dicey for a time and without some stronger returns overhead to keep the column cool, some mixing is possible. It's going to be a better chance for all snow in the usual places on a line from Front Royal/Leesburg/Upper MoCo/Western Howard/Carroll/Northern Baltimore Co. into PA, on west. If the 3km NAM is correct with the lighter easterly winds at the ground, the cold air will be tough to scour, as we've seen in the past few ice events. It's looking like one of those 1-2" deals along 95 and 2-5" for the rest of the forum with more certainly in the cards for the usual spots like Northern Carroll to the MD Line. Have to remember the dew points at onset are very low, so we'll see some evap cooling to begin the process and wet bulbing will drop into the mid-upper 20's for many (Low 30's in the cities). The heavier the precip at onset, the better we'll do. The lighter the precip at onset, a minor event on the way. The good takeaway for now is the precip field looks solid at onset for 12z guidance. We can't have that trend the wrong way. I'm in the camp of just wanting to see it snow. I'll be stuck at work, so it'll be nice to take breaks and go watch it fall when I can. Edit: Those snow accumulations are not in any way a final call, but just pointing out what it looks like the potential could be. Still wouldn't have any snow forecast until after 12z guidance tomorrow, at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said: For once I am happy to be living in Leesburg. This may be a Leesburg on west storm with the rain/snow line hovering around Dulles or so. Typical NW Burbs storm looks most likely here. Can't wait to see the 12z Euro. you and Ji must live in different parts of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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