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Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?


showmethesnow

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Has the potential to be the best event of the winter for some..not a hard title to win...but I fear the disappointment zone will be larger than it appeared yesterday.  12z. Should be well you know...telling

I thought the 12z euro was overdoing it and not by just a little. I do expect some snowfall out of this at this point but near 1" qpf with a fast moving and a not very strong low or shortwave wasn't adding up. I could see a fairly widespread .5" qpf happen without a ton of luck or fanfare. But 1" is just not happening. At least in my mind it isn't. 

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06z ICON finally broke out of its general 1-3" range, and in a good way.  It cranks up the coastal which brings down temps and increases precip.  There's now a broad area of 4-6" in northern and central MD.  That's with the ratios output by the model, not 10:1.  I'm not sure if it's a blip, but not a bad way to start off the day.  Fwiw the 06z Swiss model looks good too, but the 00z Swiss model was a miss.

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2 minutes ago, cae said:

06z ICON finally broke out of its general 1-3" range, and in a good way.  It cranks up the coastal which brings down temps and increases precip.  There's now a broad area of 4-6" in northern and central MD.  That's with the ratios output by the model, not 10:1.  I'm not sure if it's a blip, but not a bad way to start off the day.  Fwiw the 06z Swiss model looks good too, but the 00z Swiss model was a miss.

Not everyone lives in northern and central MD

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4 minutes ago, cae said:

06z ICON finally broke out of its general 1-3" range, and in a good way.  It cranks up the coastal which brings down temps and increases precip.  There's now a broad area of 4-6" in northern and central MD.  That's with the ratios output by the model, not 10:1.  I'm not sure if it's a blip, but not a bad way to start off the day.  Fwiw the 06z Swiss model looks good too, but the 00z Swiss model was a miss.

perfect. climo ftw. 

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5 minutes ago, cae said:

NAM is a step in the right direction, but the Kuchera maps still don't look great.  I think a lot of what we see on the TT accumulation map is freezing rain.

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i dont think TT counts freezing rain into their snow accumulation map. this is not a freezing rain type storm to me

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont think TT counts freezing rain into their snow accumulation map. this is not a freezing rain type storm to me

It looks like most of the ZR is up against the mountains - CAD?  But regardless of whether we actually get freezing rain, the 12z NAM seems to think we will.  It shows up on the TT p-type maps, the pivotalweather maps, and the metocentre accumulation type maps.  It wasn't clear to me that TT counts ZR as snow either, but looking at the p-type vs accumulation maps it's pretty clear that it does, at least for the 12k NAM.

 

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1 hour ago, Interstate said:

If you looked at my follow up post.  The CMC has no snow depth greater than 2 inches.

The 10-1 over estimates in marginal situations. But the snow depth map is not a good proxy either. Compaction. Melting. It's unlikely that will capture the full snowfall at any given time. Rarely do you end up with the full amount that fell on the ground when it's over.  The kuchera is probably best. But that too ends up high often also but not because it's wrong with the ratio estimation but because we rarely get the flush hit we're drooling over when we look at those things.  And sometimes the storm doesn't even end up as amplified so the ratios are wrong. But when the storm does evolve like that model run  the place that gets that band of snow usually does get those ratios. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The 10-1 over estimates in marginal situations. But the snow depth map is not a good proxy either. Compaction. Melting. It's unlikely that will capture the full snowfall at any given time. Rarely do you end up with the full amount that fell on the ground when it's over.  The kuchera is probably best. But that too ends up high often also but not because it's wrong with the ratio estimation but because we rarely get the flush hit we're drooling over when we look at those things.  And sometimes the storm doesn't even end up as amplified so the ratios are wrong. But when the storm does evolve like that model run  the place that gets that band of snow usually does get those ratios. 

I agreed with you 100%.  I just want to temper everyone expectations on what will actually be on the ground.  The snowfall maps could show 3-5 inches and it all could just be white rain.

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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I agreed with you 100%.  I just want to temper everyone expectations on what will actually be on the ground.  The snowfall maps could show 3-5 inches and it all could just be white rain.

There could be 3 inches of snow on the grass but only an inch on the road as well fwiw

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