Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Has the potential to be the best event of the winter for some..not a hard title to win...but I fear the disappointment zone will be larger than it appeared yesterday. 12z. Should be well you know...telling I thought the 12z euro was overdoing it and not by just a little. I do expect some snowfall out of this at this point but near 1" qpf with a fast moving and a not very strong low or shortwave wasn't adding up. I could see a fairly widespread .5" qpf happen without a ton of luck or fanfare. But 1" is just not happening. At least in my mind it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I know we have a retreating high, but wouldn’t the adage of cold is not so easily displaced and scoured out come into play? Models never seem to get that piece spot on. I know I read that somewhere in the handbook. Chapter 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 06z ICON finally broke out of its general 1-3" range, and in a good way. It cranks up the coastal which brings down temps and increases precip. There's now a broad area of 4-6" in northern and central MD. That's with the ratios output by the model, not 10:1. I'm not sure if it's a blip, but not a bad way to start off the day. Fwiw the 06z Swiss model looks good too, but the 00z Swiss model was a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, cae said: 06z ICON finally broke out of its general 1-3" range, and in a good way. It cranks up the coastal which brings down temps and increases precip. There's now a broad area of 4-6" in northern and central MD. That's with the ratios output by the model, not 10:1. I'm not sure if it's a blip, but not a bad way to start off the day. Fwiw the 06z Swiss model looks good too, but the 00z Swiss model was a miss. Not everyone lives in northern and central MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, cae said: 06z ICON finally broke out of its general 1-3" range, and in a good way. It cranks up the coastal which brings down temps and increases precip. There's now a broad area of 4-6" in northern and central MD. That's with the ratios output by the model, not 10:1. I'm not sure if it's a blip, but not a bad way to start off the day. Fwiw the 06z Swiss model looks good too, but the 00z Swiss model was a miss. perfect. climo ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I hope we see the Euro come back to yesterday's solution rather than last night's. Reduction in precip is not what we want to see in a marginally cold setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Not everyone lives in northern and central MD It's good for you too. This is just the first time it has shown a broad area of 4+ inches for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 nam coming in hot, take that to mean whatever you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: nam coming in hot, take that to mean whatever you want. its actually digging more and cooler at 850 at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: nam coming in hot, take that to mean whatever you want. Ha. That look at 57 reminds me of last week. Let’s show an app runner solution just to mess with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: nam coming in hot, take that to mean whatever you want. You will need to be more specific with "hot". As it could be misinterpreted as its coming in warm, vs coming in better for us. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: its actually digging more and cooler at 850 at 21z yeah i mean, take it however you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 this nam run gonna make alot of people happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 its better at 6z...stronger storm. Probably too amped and too tucked in...but we all want a stronger storm and thats what its showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Front end thump is an actual thump. Interesting. Tad colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The whole difference on the 12z NAM is the evolution of the 500 wave. N/S digs just enough with upstream heights coming up. Bit stronger high, cold enough and low gets going well. WAA front end thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Not sure what people are looking at. NAM looks north and warm to me. Accumulations are almost 0 for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 NAM is a step in the right direction, but the Kuchera maps still don't look great. I think a lot of what we see on the TT accumulation map is freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I wouldn't so happy about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, cae said: NAM is a step in the right direction, but the Kuchera maps still don't look great. I think a lot of what we see on the TT accumulation map is freezing rain. i dont think TT counts freezing rain into their snow accumulation map. this is not a freezing rain type storm to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 We need to get the SW under us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I agree with Ji. This is not a freezing rain type storm - especially with warm conditions leading into it. Would say probably snow/sleet or plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 NAM looks like a reboot of the March 2013 fail event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: can you do something about your other westminster posters:( Nope. Sorry. If i have to suffer through your banter, you need to suffer through theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3km NAM is just in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Snowfall maps are useful only for precip trends and n/s, e/w alignment of storm characteristics. IMO, they are pretty much useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think TT counts freezing rain into their snow accumulation map. this is not a freezing rain type storm to me It looks like most of the ZR is up against the mountains - CAD? But regardless of whether we actually get freezing rain, the 12z NAM seems to think we will. It shows up on the TT p-type maps, the pivotalweather maps, and the metocentre accumulation type maps. It wasn't clear to me that TT counts ZR as snow either, but looking at the p-type vs accumulation maps it's pretty clear that it does, at least for the 12k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Interstate said: If you looked at my follow up post. The CMC has no snow depth greater than 2 inches. The 10-1 over estimates in marginal situations. But the snow depth map is not a good proxy either. Compaction. Melting. It's unlikely that will capture the full snowfall at any given time. Rarely do you end up with the full amount that fell on the ground when it's over. The kuchera is probably best. But that too ends up high often also but not because it's wrong with the ratio estimation but because we rarely get the flush hit we're drooling over when we look at those things. And sometimes the storm doesn't even end up as amplified so the ratios are wrong. But when the storm does evolve like that model run the place that gets that band of snow usually does get those ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The 10-1 over estimates in marginal situations. But the snow depth map is not a good proxy either. Compaction. Melting. It's unlikely that will capture the full snowfall at any given time. Rarely do you end up with the full amount that fell on the ground when it's over. The kuchera is probably best. But that too ends up high often also but not because it's wrong with the ratio estimation but because we rarely get the flush hit we're drooling over when we look at those things. And sometimes the storm doesn't even end up as amplified so the ratios are wrong. But when the storm does evolve like that model run the place that gets that band of snow usually does get those ratios. I agreed with you 100%. I just want to temper everyone expectations on what will actually be on the ground. The snowfall maps could show 3-5 inches and it all could just be white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: I agreed with you 100%. I just want to temper everyone expectations on what will actually be on the ground. The snowfall maps could show 3-5 inches and it all could just be white rain. There could be 3 inches of snow on the grass but only an inch on the road as well fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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