Chris78 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie definitely amped compared to Gfs..precip map not out yet Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Edit ..Here's 72 Do you have temps? Precip looks great but wonder about temp issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: Do you have temps? Precip looks great but wonder about temp issues? Not out yet... waiting on the meteogram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That looks too amped lol this hobby ain't for those that can't handle the roller coaster Rather have thump of snow to rain then no snow at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie definitely amped compared to Gfs..precip map not out yet Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Edit ..Here's 72 Good sign. I really want euro to be right. I want to have faith in model again You know I think part of the problem is higher expectations. The mystique of the euro was in a time when just getting close was a win. For instance one of the greatest euro wins the 1996 HECS when I went back and read a blog that analyzed each model run the 7 days leading up to the storm even the euro greatly underestimated how far north, tucked in, and amplified it would be. And the euro had a hiccup run like day 4/5 where it shifted south. But it was closer and hinted at a big coastal and so that was a win. Today with it run twice a day and us analyzing every detail of the run we would say it was crap. I am annoyed that with the higher resolution the models all seem a bit more jumpy. Especially the euro. And with all the updates the biases are less predictable. I used to be better at predicting how a model would trend. That's harder now. But overall they are better we just expect a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Rather have thump of snow to rain then no snow at all I'm fine with that run was just pointing out its if anything too much. Somewhere between that and the gfs is a nice snowstorm for D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I'm fine with that run was just pointing out its if anything too much. Somewhere between that and the gfs is a nice snowstorm for D.C. Like the Euro. It was a perfect run. Gave us cushion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 You know I think part of the problem is higher expectations. The mystique of the euro was in a time when just getting close was a win. For instance one of the greatest euro wins the 1996 HECS when I went back and read a blog that analyzed each model run the 7 days leading up to the storm even the euro greatly underestimated how far north, tucked in, and amplified it would be. And the euro had a hiccup run like day 4/5 where it shifted south. But it was closer and hinted at a big coastal and so that was a win. Today with it run twice a day and us analyzing every detail of the run we would say it was crap. I am annoyed that with the higher resolution the models all seem a bit more jumpy. Especially the euro. And with all the updates the biases are less predictable. I used to be better at predicting how a model would trend. That's harder now. But overall they are better we just expect a lot more. I wonder if the euro actually ran twice a day back in the day but it was never published because they didn't want people to question its consistency. Back in the day...the rule was if euro showed it 3 times in a row....it was a lock. And it only ran to day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The euro has been pretty consistent over the past two days. For 3-5 leads, every run has shown a 2-6" event. Compare that to the gfs...It has def had its hay day this season but this storm has been abnormally jumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The control run on the 00z GEPS is a good hit (similar to the op) but it's also the best member of the ensemble. There are still a few left that shut out nearly the entire region. The RGEM ensemble is beginning to come into range. This is through 72 hours - there's more to come after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: There is no other snow map for the GGEM besides a 10:1 map... so yeah. Besides, it's a quick mashed potatoes storm Here is a better depiction of what would be on the ground for with the CMC. I know it is not what everyone wants to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 ^^^ I would gladly take that. Would be my biggest snowfall of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: I would gladly take that. Would be my biggest snowfall of the season. Me too. We just need to temper expectations when looking at 10:1 ratio snow maps with this one. The CMC has 3-5 but in actuality it would somewhere around 2 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Here is a better depiction of what would be on the ground for with the CMC. I know it is not what everyone wants to see. Thanks. Looks like the CMC and ICON are in general agreement for about 1-3" around most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Me too. We just need to temper expectations when looking at 10:1 ratio snow maps with this one. The CMC has 3-5 but in actuality it would somewhere around 2 inches on the ground. 2 inches is bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 too close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Euro is very similar but lighter QPF. Still a solid hit compared to other guidance tonight. Nice track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The high is hanging around. Anyone have any finer scaled data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Pretty evenly distributed .4-.6 QPF through the whole region. Few complaints on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Not bad storm for DC Northward. Kuchera Says 2-3" for DC, 10:1 says 4-6, so I'm not sure what's going on there. Certainly isn't 5:1 ratio, and is probably taking into account transition to mix, but it's still weird. I'm assuming a blend of the GFS/Euro would be ideal lol All smiles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 This works. Accums will be lower than this but good representation of QPF spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Not bad storm for DC Northward. Kuchera Says 2-3" for DC, 10:1 says 4-6, so I'm not sure what's going on there. Certainly isn't 5:1 ratio, and is probably taking into account transition to mix, but it's still weird. I'm assuming a blend of the GFS/Euro would be ideal lol All smiles here. Surface is warmer. 32 line further north. Nice front end thump before mix problems. NW stays all snow no problem. Similar idea to 12z just a little warmer and a little less precip. Makes sense because 12z was top end so this was a pull back but still a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Surface is warmer. 32 line further north. Nice front end thump before mix problems. NW stays all snow no problem. Similar idea to 12z just a little warmer and a little less precip. Makes sense because 12z was top end so this was a pull back but still a nice event. 12z was little longer of an event also. Not by a ton but 3 hours or so makes a difference. Sign me up for this run please. I'd cash in and call it a day..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Surface is warmer. 32 line further north. Nice front end thump before mix problems. NW stays all snow no problem. Similar idea to 12z just a little warmer and a little less precip. Makes sense because 12z was top end so this was a pull back but still a nice event. Just glad it kept its look. No evident move to GFS or even (lol) the NAVGEM. Basically similar, just a bit warm and less wet. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 12z was little longer of an event also. Not by a ton but 3 hours or so makes a difference. Sign me up for this run please. I'd cash in and call it a day..lol Yea, I'm pretty snow starved at this point. Watching snow roll in on radar and then a couple inches before I have to worry about mixing would be a very welcome event. Euro is at 72 hours now. It failed us earlier this year inside of 72 but it's had a similar solution for 3 straight runs. That's noteworthy. The gfs hasn't had a back to back similar solution yet. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Yea, I'm pretty snow starved at this point. Watching snow roll in on radar and then a couple inches before I have to worry about mixing would be a very welcome event. Euro is at 72 hours now. It failed us earlier this year inside of 72 but it's had a similar solution for 3 straight runs. That's noteworthy. The gfs hasn't had a back to back similar solution yet. Lolthe euro.00z runs have been dry. 12z wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I'm pretty snow starved at this point. Watching snow roll in on radar and then a couple inches before I have to worry about mixing would be a very welcome event. Euro is at 72 hours now. It failed us earlier this year inside of 72 but it's had a similar solution for 3 straight runs. That's noteworthy. The gfs hasn't had a back to back similar solution yet. Lol 00z runs have been dry. 12z wet per euro Yeah they're drier, but...hey, we gotta take every flake we can get, lol Yes, the jucier QPF earlier was tantalizing...but perhaps that was the top end. I just don't want the Euro to get any drier or warmer (because then the GFS...mercy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The latest from LWX: An upper shortwave diving towards the Gulf of Mexico will be deflected by a strong subtropical ridge, causing it to veer instead towards the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low pressure likely develops over the Tennessee Valley and heads offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina by day`s end. Cold air will be in place only briefly, so expect precipitation to start as snow or a snow/sleet mix from SW to NE Saturday midday/afternoon, then change to a mix of rain/sleet and possibly freezing rain. Snow and sleet accumulations should be limited with poor snow-to-liquid ratios (generally an inch or less, except 1-3 for higher elevations and along the Mason-Dixon line). However, this combined with the potential for light icing from patchy freezing rain Saturday evening could still result in slippery travel. The mitigating factor will be warm ground temperatures from several mild days preceding this event. Precipitation should end quickly after midnight as low pressure speeds out to sea. Winds look pretty light late Saturday night, and with temperatures below freezing any residual moisture on the ground will likely turn to ice on untreated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 NAM is still out of it's comfort zone so I am not going to break it down but I do know people are curious about the snowfall. Here is the snowfall @ 10 to 1 for 06Z. Snowfall has shifted slightly NW. Have included the positive depth map as well (Kuchera not available) to hopefully offset the more worldly of us that want to keep reminding us that the 10 to 1 is bunk. Personally find the positive depth map useless around the rain/snow line and/or marginal temp profiles. Also has snow compaction which gives lesser amounts then what would be measured boarded. So pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 21 minutes ago, arlwx said: The latest from LWX: An upper shortwave diving towards the Gulf of Mexico will be deflected by a strong subtropical ridge, causing it to veer instead towards the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low pressure likely develops over the Tennessee Valley and heads offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina by day`s end. Cold air will be in place only briefly, so expect precipitation to start as snow or a snow/sleet mix from SW to NE Saturday midday/afternoon, then change to a mix of rain/sleet and possibly freezing rain. Snow and sleet accumulations should be limited with poor snow-to-liquid ratios (generally an inch or less, except 1-3 for higher elevations and along the Mason-Dixon line). However, this combined with the potential for light icing from patchy freezing rain Saturday evening could still result in slippery travel. The mitigating factor will be warm ground temperatures from several mild days preceding this event. Precipitation should end quickly after midnight as low pressure speeds out to sea. Winds look pretty light late Saturday night, and with temperatures below freezing any residual moisture on the ground will likely turn to ice on untreated surfaces. Seems to favor the GFS over the EPS at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6z GFS more amped..warmer however. For some. Think MD should do ok. Still smidge better than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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