Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GGEM is a 3 to 5 inch storm... bullseye between DCA and BWI Can we please spot looking at the 10:1 ratio snow maps. The ratio will be less then that. I would say the CMC would product 4 inches at most and most likely 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Hmmm, the GGEM trended ever so slightly towards the gfs at h5 and shifted the snow axis South but because it shows a hit I suppose nobody is talking about the general trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Where do you get that? You can see the RGEM meteogram out to 72 hours on meteocentre. Getting maps is a little trickier. Look at the RGEM accumulation map on meteocentre, get the URL of the image, and change the "48" to "60", "72", or "84". I.e. change http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_00/accum/SN_060-048_0000.gif to http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_00/accum/SN_060-084_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Despite the great euro run...the ensembles were not impressive right? Not impressive, but not bad. Still plenty of misses there. IIRC, DT tallied them up, and 21/50 were either very minor hits, and the rest were decent hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Can we please spot looking at the 10:1 ratio snow maps. The ratio will be less then that. I would say the CMC would product 4 inches at most and most likely 3 There is no other snow map for the GGEM besides a 10:1 map... so yeah. Besides, it's a quick mashed potatoes storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: Can we please spot looking at the 10:1 ratio snow maps. The ratio will be less then that. I would say the CMC would product 4 inches at most and most likely 3 Just use it as a guide for qpf as snow and make up your own ratios that you believe are correct. CMC has .5 qpf in my yard as snow. I'll go 3" and move on to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Then the pattern has truly shifted in our favor. We’ve seen this all year, I bet they fold. The Euro rarely Fs up on this type of system. I would be shocked if the GFS wins this one. I think this is going to be a big one to be honest...just a feeling, but its going to be strictly a 95 east storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hmmm, the GGEM trended ever so slightly towards the gfs at h5 and shifted the snow axis South but because it shows a hit I suppose nobody is talking about the general trend? The ICON trended north and west...so it offsets the GGEM trend ever so slightly south. If we're going trends, the GFS did come a little north, the ICON came further north, NAM and GGEM slightly less amped and maybe a bit south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I mean if the euro cant be trusted at 84 hours or if it makes a dramatic shift...it becomes a jv model. The 00z to 12z was a big shift...but in our favor. The old euro never shifted this much so close to game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 UKIE will finally be somewhat in QPF range at hr 72... so let's see where that goes first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Despite the great euro run...the ensembles were not impressive right? There were like 18 members with little to no snow. Quite a few were GFS like- south, flat, not cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: I mean if the euro cant be trusted at 84 hours or if it makes a dramatic shift...it becomes a jv model. The 00z to 12z was a big shift...but in our favor. The old euro never shifted this much so close to game time Here's your back yard meteogram from the 12z eps. Take your pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: I mean if the euro cant be trusted at 84 hours or if it makes a dramatic shift...it becomes a jv model. The 00z to 12z was a big shift...but in our favor. The old euro never shifted this much so close to game time And I see the GFS has been the model of consistency... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hmmm, the GGEM trended ever so slightly towards the gfs at h5 and shifted the snow axis South but because it shows a hit I suppose nobody is talking about the general trend? Everyone is talking about the trend. We're just not jumping off a cliff over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Here's your back yard meteogram from the 12z eps. Take your pickLol what happened to models 20 to 25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, cae said: You can see the RGEM meteogram out to 72 hours on meteocentre. Getting maps is a little trickier. Look at the RGEM accumulation map on meteocentre, get the URL of the image, and change the "48" to "60", "72", or "84". I.e. change http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_00/accum/SN_060-048_0000.gif to http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_00/accum/SN_060-084_0000.gif Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Everyone is talking about the trend. We're just not jumping off a cliff over it. I don't even see a trend. Still shotgun style. Seemed like 12z was converging but spread opened back up again. I liked the euro run of course but my gut said right away that it was overdone. Doesn't mean that the GFS "nailed it" and we barely get a sprinkle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 And I see the GFS has been the model of consistency...But you also cant just take the most consistent model and declare victory either. I suppose the Euro op has been the most stable/consistent recent runs but does that mean it is right? If the gfs bounces around enough, one of its solutions will eventually be right. A broken clock is right twice a day, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's your back yard meteogram from the 12z eps. Take your pick Lol what happened to models 20 to 25? 10 day meteo is ugly looking. Here's the 15 day. Much better. When you get done picking for Saturday, go ahead and start the thread for the 23-25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro rarely Fs up on this type of system. I would be shocked if the GFS wins this one. I think this is going to be a big one to be honest...just a feeling, but its going to be strictly a 95 east storm It's a progressive wave along a boundary moving mostly WSW to ENE. How would that manage to hit east of 95 and not west? At whatever latitude this ends up (if it even is amplified enough) it's mostly a west to east system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hmmm, the GGEM trended ever so slightly towards the gfs at h5 and shifted the snow axis South but because it shows a hit I suppose nobody is talking about the general trend? It's worth keeping an eye on, but the shift was small. I wouldn't be surprised to see more slight shifts towards the GFS, but so far with this storm I think the GFS has made a bigger move towards the other models than the other way around. Two nights ago it was alone in showing the precip in the Carolinas with the high to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS IMHO seems off its rocker. Every other model is north and some almost to far north for our liking.The Euro was probably top shelf but a toned down version is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 It's worth keeping an eye on, but the shift was small. I wouldn't be surprised to see more slight shifts towards the GFS, but so far with this storm I think the GFS has made a bigger move towards the other models than the other way around. Two nights ago it was alone in showing the precip in the Carolinas with the high to our south.I posted elsewhere that the Euro and GFS likely meet in the middle. Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't even see a trend. Still shotgun style. Seemed like 12z was converging but spread opened back up again. I liked the euro run of course but my gut said right away that it was overdone. Doesn't mean that the GFS "nailed it" and we barely get a sprinkle. He seems on some crusads of doom and gloom. I'm just letting this play out. A lot of time left. These things are a pain in the but and often shift quite a bit right up until nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 He seems on some crusads of doom and gloom. I'm just letting this play out. A lot of time left. These things are a pain in the but and often shift quite a bit right up until nowcast. No gloom and doom here, I swear. I think a modest quick hitting WWA is probably in the cards for both of our regions, no more, no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 He seems on some crusads of doom and gloom. I'm just letting this play out. A lot of time left. These things are a pain in the but and often shift quite a bit right up until nowcast. Some people like me actually feel depressed when there is no snow in winter. Its emotional for me. I literally go into depression when this happens and being negative is what helps me survive. In march 2001....i didnt talk to anyone for weeks and couldn't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He seems on some crusads of doom and gloom. I'm just letting this play out. A lot of time left. These things are a pain in the but and often shift quite a bit right up until nowcast. Some people like me actually feel depressed when there is no snow in winter. Its emotional for me. I literally go into depression when this happens and being negative is what helps me survive. In march 2001....i didnt talk to anyone for weeks and couldn't work I'm sorry. It effects me some too. I get disappointed when it doesn't snow. But instead of spiraling into depression I move on to whatever the next distraction is. Be it the next threat. Or a trip I'm planning. A family event. Sports. Something. If I have to ill plan a trip to snow. But just sinking into depression isn't healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Ukie definitely amped compared to Gfs..precip map not out yet Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Edit ..Here's 72Good sign. I really want euro to be right. I want to have faith in model again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie definitely amped compared to Gfs..precip map not out yet Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Edit ..Here's 72 That looks too amped lol this hobby ain't for those that can't handle the roller coaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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