yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 2:39 AM, Eskimo Joe said: NAM really isn't that good. Expand Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 2:39 AM, Eskimo Joe said: NAM really isn't that good. Expand On 2/16/2018 at 2:39 AM, yoda said: Why? Expand Because he thinks anything less than a 6" paste bomb is a waste of time. If DCA gets 3" anyone that understand climo should be doing flips but he would be complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 2:39 AM, Eskimo Joe said: NAM really isn't that good. Expand We lose some qpf from 18z, but the temps are better. Even though the snowfall total probably went down for me, I'm OK with that tradeoff. For people who are in locations where temps are marginal, it was a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 2:39 AM, yoda said: Why? Expand Unless I'm missing something looks like southeast winds ahead of the event and it's the NAM on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3k NAM looks decent too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 2:52 AM, Cobalt said: 3k NAM looks decent too Expand It is. Similar idea to the 12k. Less precip, but better temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 1:25 AM, nj2va said: NWS Pitt not expecting much for the mountains either - their map shows <1” for Canaan and Deep Creek. Hopefully we get a few inches out there while I’m there. Expand That is due to the cold press and track of the low. This track isnt the best for them in all honesty. I am slightly worried about being fringed with the heaviest stuff myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 2:43 AM, psuhoffman said: Because he thinks anything less than a 6" paste bomb is a waste of time. If DCA gets 3" anyone that understand climo should be doing flips but he would be complaining. Expand on the bright side, a couple years ago he used to have the bar at 30" or less so he's coming around.... hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Anyone have RGEM? Slow to come out on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 on TT, RGEM has same snow bullseye near DCA as nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 2:52 AM, Cobalt said: 3k NAM looks decent too Expand Yeah gotta say it surprised me as it also ticked south with best accums. you guys are safe for a nice little event verbatim. Sure pulling for yas (and me - i've been largely jipped up here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 3:25 AM, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: on TT, RGEM has same snow bullseye near DCA as nam Expand It's fully out on pivotal. It's at the end of its run so there's more to come, but it looks like it also shifted south / colder. The ICON did too. After the 06z blip, ICON has gone back to showing widespread 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 ICON seems to be a little warmer than the NAM but same general idea in terms of track and precip etc...convergence. Now we can really start talking details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Mesos are kind tonight. Really shows the mechanics of heavy precip with a borderline column and a snowier outcome. Like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Gfs better with 850s to our SW at hour 30. Another good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 DT's first call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Looks like we're gaining ground across the board on guidance with mid level temps. That's a very good sign at <48 hour leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Gfs improved tonight. Still crap but less crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 3:46 AM, Bob Chill said: Looks like we're gaining ground across the board on guidance with mid level temps. That's a very good sign at <48 hour leads. Expand Snow depth still looks weak, but hopefully the mesos are catching onto a colder trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 3:48 AM, Ji said: Gfs improved tonight. Still crap but less crap Expand Im pretty happy with the gfs run. The trend with temps being a little colder is a big deal. We have no room to lose. Getting something back is great. Safe to say the mesos are prob overdone with precip and the gfs is too stingy. Usually how it works. That leaves my yard with an acceptable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 3:46 AM, Bob Chill said: Looks like we're gaining ground across the board on guidance with mid level temps. That's a very good sign at <48 hour leads. Expand I'm honestly stunned. I feel like it's been forever since we've seen a borderline temp event trend towards us in the last 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I'm kinda expecting the euro to come in a little colder now. It's been the most steady model in general by far the last 4 runs. Usually means good things. The only thing that was bad with the 12z run was pushing the rain snow line to PA. Bring that back south tonight and the bleeding has reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 3:46 AM, Bob Chill said: Looks like we're gaining ground across the board on guidance with mid level temps. That's a very good sign at <48 hour leads. Expand Yeah its nice to see the cold oozing a little further south....so now we can root this thing on to juicing up for our paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I think we are all heading to a 2-4 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Cant wait till this event is over so we can go back to tracking our 946mb loopty doo nao hecs bomb on March 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 3:53 AM, Bob Chill said: I'm kinda expecting the euro to come in a little colder now. It's been the most steady model in general by far the last 4 runs. Usually means good things. The only thing that was bad with the 12z run was pushing the rain snow line to PA. Bring that back south tonight and the bleeding has reversed. Expand I want to see how the 00z UKIE is. 12z was a paste bomb of 12 to 14mm at DCA. Want to see UKIE hold the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 @Ji Gonna need .5 qpf to pull that off. Your yard might get 4". I'm still liking my 2-3" call from earlier for my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 3:58 AM, yoda said: I want to see how the 00z UKIE is. 12z was a paste bomb of 12 to 14mm at DCA. Want to see UKIE hold the line Expand Yea, it was super close with temps. If the ukie comes in a little colder and still has a good slug of precip then we're in pretty good shape for the short range. Need to have a little room to spare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Dry as a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 4:17 AM, MD Snow said: Dry as a bone. Expand RGEM at hour 48 looked much better though and had some 4 to 5 inch amounts where the GGEM has only 2. Probably getting towards the range to pay more attention to RGEM rather than GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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