SnowGolfBro Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Still a lot of time for changes. Taking the NAM verbatim (a scary thought) minor tweaks to 850s could put us all in the game or screw even the NW burbs. Tough forecast but still worth tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 For what little it's worth, SREF plumes have improved slightly today for BWI but are still awful. Barely a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 It all comes down to rates...18z 3k has minor warm layers that flip us to rain ...heavier stuff would probably keep us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Interesting... 3km NAM tries to change DC over to rain for hr 56 and then back to snow hr 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Yikes. The 3K NAM is subforum divider. This one is gonna be nerve-racking for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The 12z Swiss model is similar to its 06z run. It gives widespread snow, but surface temps are questionable except for northern areas and higher elevations. It pickes up on a stripe of relatively heavy snow between Roanoke and Lynchburg that I don't think any other model has. Snow depth maps suggest elevation will be a big factor in accumulations. I don't know how accurate this is, but I'm looking foward to the day when we have more high-resolution models. The level of detail on this map is awesome. That's my backyard, but you can get your own maps here. https://weather.us/model-charts/virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:05 PM, yoda said: Interesting... 3km NAM tries to change DC over to rain for hr 56 and then back to snow hr 57 Expand Take a look at soundings...it’s not as “heavy” as 18z so there are sneaky warm layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:06 PM, LP08 said: Take a look at soundings...it’s not as “heavy” as 18z so there are sneaky warm layers Expand I know... I was just saying it goes snow to sleet to an hour of rain then back to snow at DCA... that just looks weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:05 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Yikes. The 3K NAM is subforum divider. This one is gonna be nerve-racking for many Expand Borderline temp storms always are. This event screams T-0.5" for DCA while mappy and Hoffman talk about puking snow missiles. Elevation will make a huge difference. If I had to put numbers down right now I'd go with something like this: DCA: t-0.5" DC and inside 495: 0.5-1.5" Baltimore/BWI: 1-3" MoCo/HoCo near 95/495: 1.5-3.5" Loudon/Frederick/Carroll/Bmore county/Harford: 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:10 PM, yoda said: I know... I was just saying it goes snow to sleet to an hour of rain then back to snow at DCA... that just looks weird Expand Oh for sure...wasn’t saying you didn’t...the warm layers are small so maybe we can stay heavy enough to avoid flipping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:12 PM, WxUSAF said: Borderline temp storms always are. This event screams T-0.5" for DCA while mappy and Hoffman talk about puking snow missiles. Elevation will make a huge difference. If I had to put numbers down right now I'd go with something like this: DCA: t-0.5" DC and inside 495: 0.5-1.5" Baltimore/BWI: 1-3" MoCo/HoCo near 95/495: 1.5-3.5" Loudon/Frederick/Carroll/Bmore county/Harford: 3-6" Expand Which one of these does fairfax co fall into? My previous post got removed somehow. Anyway, this seems like the areas that typically do well will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Loudoun stays all snow in 3K Nam. Too bad its 60 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Wind streamlines look much better than 12z. You can see a bit of a cold tuck on this run where 12z just had a SE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:24 PM, Amped said: Wind streamlines look much better than 12z. You can see a bit of a cold tuck on this run where 12z just had a SE wind. Expand Wind speed up top and at ground level could be the deciding factor for this storm. If the ground level winds are light and/or out of the east northeast I don't think we will lose the surface. The 850's are what to watch for snow but I think we will have frozen something falling Saturday night. The weenie in me says mostly snow until you get South of Fredericksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:29 PM, SnowGolfBro said: Wind speed up top and at ground level could be the deciding factor for this storm. If the ground level winds are light and/or out of the east northeast I don't think we will lose the surface. The 850's are what to watch for snow but I think we will have frozen something falling Saturday night. The weenie in me says mostly snow until you get South of Fredericksburg. Expand Exactly, a warm layer aloft very possible southeast of 95. Could be sleet issues. Even up this way I'm not 100% convinced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The GFS is flatter at 42 and the heights are higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:12 PM, WxUSAF said: Borderline temp storms always are. This event screams T-0.5" for DCA while mappy and Hoffman talk about puking snow missiles. Elevation will make a huge difference. If I had to put numbers down right now I'd go with something like this: DCA: t-0.5" DC and inside 495: 0.5-1.5" Baltimore/BWI: 1-3" MoCo/HoCo near 95/495: 1.5-3.5" Loudon/Frederick/Carroll/Bmore county/Harford: 3-6"You and I are on the same page here. Good stuff. Def favored climo spots vs 95 areas. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 18z GFS seems like it has a slightly stronger WWA thump vs. 12z, but then warms the boundary layer slightly more after the coastal takes over (which is a bit counterintuitive). Differences to 12z look basically like noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Gfs has been useless and its last model id trust in marginal events like this. Just remember Feb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 So it sounds like the northern half of the forum could get a WSW...while the other half continues a 2-year long WSW drought! Darn...so close, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 10:00 PM, Maestrobjwa said: So it sounds like the northern half of the forum could get a WSW...while the other half continues a 2-year long WSW drought! Darn...so close, lol Expand A wsw is a stretch for anyone imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 10:03 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: A wsw is a stretch for anyone imo. Expand Psu, mappy, Ji, Winchester crew, not a stretch I think...we will see..maybe not Jeb but I hope him too..he’s just fun during snow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:05 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Yikes. The 3K NAM is subforum divider. This one is gonna be nerve-racking for many Expand Whenever anyone brings up "marginal temps" or "rates will have to overcome" I know Arlington is gonna get screwed. I keep telling myself that I should move elsewhere. Just rooting for the rest of this subforum at this point (and maybe praying for for a wee miracle.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 We need a trend back toward a less marginal setup. 0z will be telling if todays move toward a marginal event was mostly noise or the beginning of a signal for a cold rain event. We need the cold front and high pressure to show signs of life or we could be cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 10:50 PM, BristowWx said: Psu, mappy, Ji, Winchester crew, not a stretch I think...we will see..maybe not Jeb but I hope him too..he’s just fun during snow events Expand Model Guidance would suggest WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 11:05 PM, Interstate said: Model Guidance would suggest WWA at the max Expand I don't think it' a stretch to see a 3 to 6 inch area in the northern tier. Md counties bordering pa.Probably a high end wwa or low end wsw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 What was the verdict of the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 11:16 PM, Chase said: What was the verdict of the 18z GFS? Expand GFS was naso good, but it hasn't exactly been the best with marginal storms like these. Not sure what others think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 11:05 PM, Interstate said: Model Guidance would suggest WWA Expand LWX sure seems to be leaning that way also. Going with 1-2" north of I-70 in their afternoon discussion. Though they did nudge this product up a bit with the p.m. update, it's still a WWA call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 11:19 PM, WVclimo said: LWX sure seems to be leaning that way also. Going with 1-2" north of I-70 in their afternoon discussion. Though they did nudge this product up a bit with the p.m. update, it's still a WWA call. Expand Makes sense at this point to play it safe. Nothing screaming shutout or WSW event, so low numbers are the way to go right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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