Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The premise on all models is the same now. If the precip is tepid at onset then this is going to suck for a lot of us. If it comes in juiced then snow could overperform what the euro just showed. We'll know soon enough. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3" then a changeover is not going to put this winter into D- territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:19 PM, mappy said: seems to move in earlier than models had it yesterday. mid-afternoon to early evening for you southerners. Expand Old forecaster rule "Warm air advection snow waits for no one". Might be a 3 or 4 pm start for places like Frederick and Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:20 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Old forecaster rule "Warm air advection snow waits for no one". Might be a 3 or 4 pm start for places like Frederick and Hagerstown. Expand At least this is the type of event that has potential to end up better than expected. Rain to snow rarely works in our favor. Especially in my yard. Snow to rain is more of a coin flip. I just want to see snow fall again dammit. If it comes down heavy for an hour while walking my dog then I got my fill to tide me over until the mega blocked march bomb comes in a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:23 PM, Bob Chill said: At least this is the type of event that has potential to end up better than expected. Rain to snow rarely works in our favor. Especially in my yard. Snow to rain is more of a coin flip. I just want to see snow fall again dammit. If it comes down heavy for an hour while walking my dog then I got my fill to tide me over until the mega blocked march bomb comes in a couple weeks. Expand 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:24 PM, Eskimo Joe said: 100% agree Expand An hour or so ago you were posting to bring on spring? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:23 PM, Bob Chill said: At least this is the type of event that has potential to end up better than expected. Rain to snow rarely works in our favor. Especially in my yard. Snow to rain is more of a coin flip. I just want to see snow fall again dammit. If it comes down heavy for an hour while walking my dog then I got my fill to tide me over until the mega blocked march bomb comes in a couple weeks. Expand that mega block is also falling apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Some 12z RGEM ensemble maps. The first is the mean qpf (liquid equivalent) as snow in mm. The next 3 show the percent of members with about 0.1", 0.2", and 0.4" qpf as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:15 PM, Bob Chill said: Through 0z looks good for snow then things go a little haywire. 850's up to +3 by 6z along the corridor. Precip is mostly done by then so what happens between 0-6z makes or breaks it. My 2-3" call is optimistic but probable on the euro. Not much room to wiggle anymore. That's for sure. Expand Kinda like I said after the early 12z returns. I'm not upset with how things look now. If this was go time I would feel good. But I'm concerned we've lost all our breathing room. Any further warming of north trend and we are in trouble and there is still 48 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:28 PM, mappy said: An hour or so ago you were posting to bring on spring? lol Expand I'm ready for spring, just agreeing with his statement that we do better with SN -> RA than RA -> SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Nice post @cae Making your own model charts is pretty bad azz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I can't complain about the 12z suite in all honesty. I get fringed in the Gfs. But everything else is a decent event out here. I think it's a lock of at least a couple of inches to the nw of the cities at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:31 PM, Ji said: that mega block is also falling apart Expand Nah, some sort of -NAO is a lock imho. I'm not going to derail this thread but if you want a chance at a good March snow event then you can't ask for much of a better look down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:19 PM, Amped said: 3" then a changeover is not going to put this winter into D- territory. Expand Sadly it does. If we reserve an F for the bottom 20% of winters all it takes at DCA is 4.9" for the whole winter. It's a pretty low bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:41 PM, Bob Chill said: Nah, some sort of -NAO is a lock imho. I'm not going to derail this thread but if you want a chance at a good March snow event then you can't ask for much of a better look down the line. Expand I like your positive vibes . Many times positive thinking can equate to a positive outcome, weather zen :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:41 PM, psuhoffman said: Sadly it does. If we reserve an F for the bottom 20% of winters all it takes at DCA is 4.9" for the whole winter. It's a pretty low bar. Expand We all have our own metrics. It's subjective. By a snow only metric it's pretty bad. But we had 10" of ice on the lakes earlier this winter and I skated a bunch. That doesn't happen every year at all. A sub 10" snow year that includes no frozen lakes and ponds is my failure bar. Lets not go down this road though. We can all grade whatever we want. I think we can all agree that this winter has felt like winter in general. Beyond that becomes personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:16 PM, MillvilleWx said: Thanks PSU. I have to work during this event, but I want to visit up there and take in the scenery sometime. Go hiking and visit the local parks. Expand Charlottes Quest Visitor Center is another spot. Trails through the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 this is a strange looking 850 map at 00z. Goes from -4 to 1 from 18z to 00z for me...we need a heavy onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 3:45 PM, yoda said: Sun angle again? Really? And with the way the pattern is setting up, if it comes to fruition like the GEFS has been showing, spring is not likely to be here next month (as in highs above the 50s) Expand Sun angle crap shows you who knows something and who parrots junk its barely mid feb, the sun is still dead, 30 days from now Huge difference but sun is like mid November right now. Waiting for someone to offer how the Dec/Jan "drought" will effect this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 4:06 PM, pasnownut said: Thanks for the input. Noone here knew that..... Expand Staggering what one can learn and it's for our own good to be given and absorb this info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:56 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Sun angle crap shows you who knows something and who parrots junk its barely mid feb, the sun is still dead, 30 days from now Huge difference but sun is like mid November right now. Waiting for someone to offer how the Dec/Jan "drought" will effect this Expand I don't know Tenman. I was just walking Wonderdog, and the sun was out and felt pretty strong to my Irish skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:43 PM, frd said: I like your positive vibes . Many times positive thinking can equate to a positive outcome, weather zen :-) Expand i like negative Bob. Positive bob in a terrible winter makes me hate the winter even more lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Barometer will be a good in situation analyzer. 30.10+ And we stay snow, 30-30.1 a mix, below 30.00 and mostly or all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Still a lot of variation in what could happen Saturday night. If the cold air is a little stronger Friday night and we get a little help from the mid levels it could be a nice surprise. Of course we are riding the edge so what else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 7:26 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Barometer will be a good in situation analyzer. 30.10+ And we stay snow, 30-30.1 a mix, below 30.00 and mostly or all rain Expand I will stick with my trusty thermometer, thank you. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:56 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Sun angle crap shows you who knows something and who parrots junk its barely mid feb, the sun is still dead, 30 days from now Huge difference but sun is like mid November right now. Waiting for someone to offer how the Dec/Jan "drought" will effect this Expand I'm not going to get into this, but the sun is not "dead", trees are blooming in South Carolina for goodness sake. And I'm pretty sure the sun angle is more analogous to October at this point, not November. See UV indexes for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 7:32 PM, Wonderdog said: I will stick with my trusty thermometer, thank you. LOL Expand That doesn't help up in the sky though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Currently 74 and partly cloudy in Gainesville. NWS forecasts Gainesville to have snow and sleet after 1pm on Saturday ending before 1AM Sunday morning. Chances are at 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:56 PM, Tenman Johnson said: its barely mid feb, the sun is still dead, 30 days from now Huge difference but sun is like mid November right now. Waiting for someone to offer how the Dec/Jan "drought" will effect this Expand Not saying the sun angle has a little or a lot of influence, but it is not equivalent to mid November. Closer to October. October 26 to be precise. Day length is also pretty close to Oct. 26. Highest altitude for the two days: Feb 15, 38.6 degrees - Oct 26, 38.5 degrees. It does feel nice and warm (not toasty) when there is no wind. A month ago it didn't feel warm even without wind. A month from now it will be warm to toasty. And at 49.3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 6:44 PM, Bob Chill said: We all have our own metrics. It's subjective. By a snow only metric it's pretty bad. But we had 10" of ice on the lakes earlier this winter and I skated a bunch. That doesn't happen every year at all. A sub 10" snow year that includes no frozen lakes and ponds is my failure bar. Lets not go down this road though. We can all grade whatever we want. I think we can all agree that this winter has felt like winter in general. Beyond that becomes personal. Expand Grades are subjective but it gets annoying when some give an F to like 60% of winters. If I failed 60% of my students I would be out of a job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.