psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 11:28 PM, Cobalt said: NAVGEM is still very amped. Doesn't it usually have a progressive bias? Expand It has an even more impressive wrong bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 11:29 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Totally expected. GEFS follows the op most of the time. One thing of note, as I just had a chance to look at the 12z EPS, snow mean was somewhat less impressive, and there were more than a handful of members with little to no snow. Expand On 2/14/2018 at 11:33 PM, WxUSAF said: GEFS is just a herd mentality of the Op, so I wouldn’t give it more weight than normal. GFS has hopped around while the Canadian and euro have been pretty steady. I’d put my weight there for now. Sure, a flat solution is possible, but it’s the minority chance right now IMO. Expand Totally agree. Inside day 5 the gefs usually follows the op like a lost puppy. Still wasn't a good run but shouldn't make too much of it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 sloppy inches seems like a fairly safe bet right now, even taking into account the 18z GFS. The differences between the GFS vs CMC/ICON/Euro become particularly stark when looking at the upper levels - GFS not only suppresses the steering flow, but suppresses the anticyclonic motion all the way down in the Bahamas. Not sure I buy that, but the differences between the 18z GFS and the other models emerge within 24 hours from now (check the flow off the coast of Texas) with GFS being much more progressive. So we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 LOL. NAMed. The 18Z NAM would be a great storm for all of us 6-8 area wide. Too bad it is such a poor model at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 10:26 PM, C.A.P.E. said: So what just happened? I been out running around, out of the loop.. so we got totally NAMed, and the 18z GFS totally lost the storm? LOLLiterally my thoughts when I checked in to TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 11:39 PM, psuhoffman said: Totally agree. Inside day 5 the gefs usually follows the op like a lost puppy. Still wasn't a good run but shouldn't make too much of it yet. Expand And besides...this feels a little different than before when it was the GFS vs. the world for several runs...as opposed to just this one run...Even so, there's gonna be some nail-biting and little leads restful sleep if 0z looks the same, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 If Ellinwood posts a map regarding this potential event, then it is game on. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 1:36 AM, Cobalt said: Interesting Expand How does the Euro compare in handling the same piece in that timeframe? If this trend is only present on the GFS, then that would hold less weight IMO. On 2/15/2018 at 1:42 AM, MDstorm said: If Ellinwood posts a map regarding this potential event, then it is game on. MDstorm Expand Not until @Ian pops in....then you know it's gettin' real..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 1:36 AM, Cobalt said: Interesting Expand Well that's a little concerning to my untrained eye...but wouldn't that mean that a south trend would become more of a concern than the northern one we were dreading just 18 hours ago? Lol@psuhoffman Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 10:26 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z cmc is a solid hit. Looks nothing like the gfs. Expand It looks like the 12z cmc. The accumulation maps shows a slight shift SE, but still a stripe of 4-6" running along I95 from DC to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 1:54 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Well that's a little concerning to my untrained eye...but wouldn't that mean that a south trend would become more of a concern than the northern one we were dreading just 18 hours ago? Lol@psuhoffman Thoughts? Expand Some of that energy gets absorbed but the main vort associated with the storm is a northern stream system coming into the Pacific NW. The main difference I see with the 18z gfs was that being less energetic and washing out. But maybe I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Heights are higher in the mid west at H57 on the NAM Not as amped at H66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 2:37 AM, Interstate said: Heights are higher in the mid west at H57 on the NAM Not as amped at H66 Expand It's holding the energy back a little. Let's see what happens downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 NAM warmer this run...maybe due to the less digging of the SW and less amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Good thump to light rain and shut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Not a good run on the NAM. Flatter,weaker energy coming across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 2:46 AM, yoda said: Good thump to light rain and shut off Expand You could tell it was not going to as good because the SW was less amped earlier in the run. A little more like the GFS Don't get me wrong. I would take this run in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 2:47 AM, ers-wxman1 said: Not a good run on the NAM. Flatter,weaker energy coming across. Expand I'm okay with anything that a 75 hr NAM spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 this ones gonna come down to the wire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 2:57 AM, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: this ones gonna come down to the wire Expand And painful wire it could become...that NAM wouldn't have bothered me as much if the GFS hadn't did what it did at 18z. Man what a dream squasher it's been this season (but hopefully not this time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 LOL! The NAM giveth and the NAM taketh away. 18Z DCA gets around 8 inches. 0Z DCA get POINT 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 3:04 AM, clskinsfan said: LOL! The NAM giveth and the NAM taketh away. 18Z DCA gets around 8 inches. 0Z DCA get POINT 8 inches. Expand By the next run, getting NAMd will take on a whole new meaning. Sunny and 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 ICON is further north. Doesn't seem flatter. It's not trending toward a GFS solution. Looks closest to a NAVGEM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 3:32 AM, MD Snow said: ICON is further north. Doesn't seem flatter. It's not trending toward a GFS solution. Expand Gives pause, but typically the ICON has an amped bias, but I'm assuming it's still a good thing it didn't trend towards the GFS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 3:32 AM, MD Snow said: ICON is further north. Doesn't seem flatter. It's not trending toward a GFS solution. Expand As much as I've heard enough about the icon, that trend is noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS seems like a slight increase compared to 18z. Just a smidge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 00z GFS is looking fairly flat at 500 through hr 60. Progressive N/S wave with no real dig to the wave. This is not a favorable track for accumulating snows for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS says move along. Nothing to see here. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GGEM still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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