BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 7:28 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: 12z EPS Control is a DC Bullseye. Expand What's the mean like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 7:34 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What's the mean like? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 7:29 PM, psuhoffman said: Saturday late afternoon into Saturday night. Can't get more specific then that yet. Expand Good enough. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Temps close so another prime opportunity for DCA to give an odd snow total BWI and IAD:5" Andrews:4.5" Fredericksburg:3" DCA:2.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 The NAM has a much more amped SW at 75. Good way to Start HH. NAM'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 We done been NAM’d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 NAM, albeit it’s the NAM at the end of its range would be exactly what we want plus the coastal is more amped and that type of track would keep our flow more NE with colder air staying in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Sucks at the end of this range, since the NAM basically showed a high end solution. Temps never budge 30 NW of DC, never budge freezing DC and slightly SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 You guys need to post pictures for those of us too lazy to go a model site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 FWIW Bernie Rayno is still very bearish. For good reason too. Still doesn't believe if everything goes right that the storm will give DC a WSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 8:51 PM, WxUSAF said: We done been NAM’d. Expand I was going to say we got NAM'd, but that is actually on par with the Euro. Even safer with the R/S line though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 We should be using snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 9:01 PM, Cobalt said: FWIW Bernie Rayno is still very bearish. For good reason too. Still doesn't believe if everything goes right that the storm will give DC a WSW event. Expand Odds of DC getting a WSW snow are pretty low IMO, doubly so because it’s DC. Odds of WSW snow for everyone else is going up. CWG gave 30% odds of a major snowstorm, which is reasonable at this point. On 2/14/2018 at 9:02 PM, MN Transplant said: I was going to say we got NAM'd, but that is actually on par with the Euro. Even safer with the R/S line though. Expand Yup, it’s like a colder euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 9:01 PM, Cobalt said: FWIW Bernie Rayno is still very bearish. For good reason too. Still doesn't believe if everything goes right that the storm will give DC a WSW event. Expand I'm good with this. The models have struggled with the progressive pattern in the medium and long range. They have been pretty good about nailing down a solution in the 7248-72 hour range. The models are in pretty good agreement that an event is going to happen. Specifics for anyone's backyard are almost always going to be fleshed out by the Meso's as we get closer to the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 9:06 PM, WxUSAF said: Odds of DC getting a WSW snow are pretty low IMO, doubly so because it’s DC. Odds of WSW snow for everyone else is going up. CWG gave 30% odds of a major snowstorm, which is reasonable at this point. Yup, it’s like a colder euro. Expand 30% for moderate, not major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 8:59 PM, mappy said: You guys need to post pictures for those of us too lazy to go a model site Expand Mappy postin 84 hr snow panels of the NAM..... You've come a long way........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 4:36 PM, psuhoffman said: The TT plots are fun and convenient but in marginal situations like this we were better off back in the day when you had to take the individual plots and look at all the layers and figure out for yourself what the precip type was. Too many people now are just relying on that flawed algorythm on TT. Expand Anytime there's borderline temps it's best to use snowfall maps that account for ratios. The Kuchera ratio maps on pivotalweather are probably going to be more realistic than the 10:1 TT maps for this system. Pivotal also has a nice feature that shows you a map of the max column temp if you want to get a sense of midlevel temps without clicking on a buch of soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 DT posted EPS snowmaps on twitter. 14 look like total misses to me with 6 major (6”+) hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Thanks for the coverage. Just tuned back in and caught up with the euro. Good analysis and great run. Nice convergence today towards a winning scenario. Getting close to writing off an all rain event for 95 and west. Amazing what a neg ao and transient 50/50 can do. Storms like this feel super rare but over time they aren't. Classic moderate event with nothing unusually complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 9:21 PM, WxUSAF said: DT posted EPS snowmaps on twitter. 14 look like total misses to me with 6 major (6”+) hits. Expand This is for gaithersburg. DC is similar. Euro op is top end of ens spread. That should give some pause before hugging the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GEPS control drops more than 20 mm of qpf as snow on most of Maryland. The totals on most of the rest of the members look more like the op. There is still good spread among the members. Some tracks to the south, and some to the north, but only 3 of 21 that don't give me at least 1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I'm sure a lot of you know this already, but some might not. You can flip through the EPS members for free on weather.us. Click on "Most recent forecast" under "Model run" and "Snow depth (in)" under "Select Parameter". You can then go through all of the members by cycling through the "Members" drop box. (You can use up and down arrows if you have a keyboard.) Here's the 12z control run. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/virginia/m0_snow-depth-in/20180218-0600z.html One caveat is that I'm not sure what "snow depth" really means. For some models it appears to account for ice on the ground as well. (If anyone knows for sure what this field means, please let us know!) "Accumulated total precipitation" is also available for the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 9:38 PM, cae said: I'm sure a lot of you know this already, but some might not. You can flip through the EPS members for free on weather.us. Click on "Most recent forecast" under "Model run" and "Snow depth (in)" under "Select Parameter". You can then go through all of the members by cycling through the "Members" drop box. (You can use up and down arrows if you have a keyboard.) Here's the 12z control run. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/virginia/m0_snow-depth-in/20180218-0600z.html The one caveat is that I'm not sure what "snow depth" really means. For some models it appears to account for ice on the ground as well. (If anyone knows for sure what this field means, please let us know!) Expand Just based on comparing the charts posted earlier, it must be snowfall imo. Thanks for the link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Yeah, this storm is going to trend a lot wetter. Animate the NAM, beautiful gulf feed pattern move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GFS is not as amped at H72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 ICON gives about 1-3" for most of the region. With some small fluctuations, that has been its forecast for the last 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GFS looks to be flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Lol- I should tune back out. Gfs is an unmitigated disaster. Didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 9:53 PM, Cobalt said: GFS looks to be flat. Expand That prevents too much waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 9:55 PM, MD Snow said: Happy hour GFS goes south. I don't mind it especially with other guidance showing some decent hits. It actually looks similar to it's 6z run yesterday. LOL Expand Do not count out the GFS... it has been the first to sniff out more progressive solutions. This is still a NS storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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