JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 33 minutes ago, SP said: Time to activate the Monmouth county snow magnets to full power and right on que a WSW has just been posted for Monmouth. ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 3k nam is a paste bomb as well. Six hours of straight pillows falling from the sky in se pa. Mt Holly's updated disco says 3 to 5 for se pa with isolated spots of 6 and that they are keeping the watch up through tomorrow morning. If the nam and euro hold serve or improve further at 00z it's got to be tempting to pull the trigger on winter storm warnings for the immidiate burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Looks to be over by midnight-1am or so. Basically a extended squall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 8 hours ago, The Iceman said: Shout out to MGorse if you still lurk these boards. A++++ long range disco this morning. Great stuff. Thanks, much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, JERSEYSNOWROB said: and right on que a WSW has just been posted for Monmouth. ha ha ha Call it magic, call it true coldplay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 GFS finally catching on showing some 3.5-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 GFS finally catching on showing some 3.5-4" And the higher res rgem cuts back, lol. 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 SREFS bumped up to .5 mean LE much of SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 hours ago, tamarack said: Be careful what you wish for. Many years back, when I lived in NNJ, we had a storm on the overnight of March 21-22; NYC recorded 4.9". I was babysitting 4 kids and their parents got back about 1:30 AM (I'd been fully forewarned) at which time I drove home thru SN+ with 1-2" new. I slept until after 10 the next morning (it was Saturday), and by the time I got up it was sunny and near 50, and only patches remained. That storm held the NYC record for the date (until topped a few years later) and it disappointed this future weenie that I didn't get to see the snowy scene in daylight. I'm not worried at all about how long the snow pack lasts. It'll be in the mid-upper 60s tuesday so I'm hoping to hit some golf balls in my yard without them turning to mudballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 11 hours ago, penndotguy said: Very strange WSW for 4-6 I thought our criteria was 6+ A watch does not automatically imply a warning will be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, MGorse said: A watch does not automatically imply a warning will be issued. Yeah as I stated after I posted it I realized my confusion it was early Lol. Anyway great job and discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 26 minutes ago, RedSky said: GFS finally catching on showing some 3.5-4" IMO, I wouldn't be surprised to see this jump slightly further north and more amped like much of our SWFE storms this year. I like the NWS forecast right now for widespread 2-4" but 5 or 6 isn't completely out of the equation in localized areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 If I were to make a forecast, this would be my map. Completely agree with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Newman said: If I were to make a forecast, this would be my map. Completely agree with them. Not a fan of overlapping snow accumulation ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 With the 18z suite WXSIM has increased the event to 2 to 4 inches total here in NW Chester County PA Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A chance of a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon. High 42. Wind east around 3 mph in the morning, becoming south-southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight. Light to moderate fog after midnight. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 26. Wind south around 2 mph in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 If I were to make a forecast, this would be my map. Completely agree with them.Nfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 I'll issue a final call tomorrow morning as I doubt I'll make it all night for the 00z suite...need my rest for tomorrow night Going to make it easier and more general. Shore areas - coating-2" Eastern half of nj 2-4" Western half of nj to upper bucks/montco/del/eastern half of chester counties - 4-6" lollipops of 8" Lehigh valley and Poconos 2-4" Overall not much has changed for me. I feel there will be an area that reaches winter storm warning criteria and due to the heavy and quick nature it will feel like one for many areas. 00z could effect these numbers especially if we see another n tick. Looking good for at minimum a solid wwa event for everyone. In between two periods of hitting 60F, as RW says "we take". Enjoy this one as if its the last snow of the year and hope it's not the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 21z sref increased snow in SE PA and sunk further south with solid totals as well. se pa is solidly in the 3-6" zone. Very good shift. I won't be surprised if we see precip inch up a bit up to the event as the models catch on to the jet streaks influence on the moisture transport. We are in a great spot 24 hours out. Unless you are on the shore you can say with a fairly high degree of confidence now that you will see accumulating snow of at least an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 00z 12k nam absolutely buries the area again...even better than 18z. Death band shifts nw again though and rides along 95 then n and w. Immidiate philly burbs as well as the 3/4 of nj away from the coast of nj get blasted with paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3K nam pretty much the same as the 12K. Should be a fun storm to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Still thinking the NAM is overdone as a whole BUT is correct in the banding signatures. My thinking is a general 2-4" event for SE PA as the rule with a couple isolated 4-6" spots under heavier bands which will be the exception. I do think 6" may be a stretch given the crud ratios but wont rule it out completely. The lower qpf on a few of the globals concerns me but the mesos as usual likely have a good handle in signaling that there will be heavier bands embedded yielding some slightly higher isolated totals which I noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 GFS has thermal problems for lower counties, world apart from the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 GFS has thermal problems for lower counties, world apart from the NAM So does the rgem which is generally too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Took a closer look at the 3k NAM hoping with its resolution I could pinpoint what the rgem and gfs are picking up on with the rain/mix getting into SE PA during some of the prime event time and lo and behold there is some warm air working its way in around 850 which on the NAM even works into extreme SE PA now. Might be one of those deals for extreme SE PA say S and E of central Bucks where if you under subsidence with lighter rates you mix at times and under the heavy bands you are all snow. It would figure, as soon as I pull the trigger with the qpf looking decent now there is a warm tongue nearby lol. RedSky you should be ok up your way.....Im on the fence just a few miles S and E of KDYL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I cant stop looking at the gfs and laughing thinking how delco and phl are basically shutout and picturing old man winter watching replays of the Super Bowl reminding himself of the snowfall sacrifice a bunch of us made if the Eagles won the championship. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 GGEM and the German are both weak sauce 2-2.5" snow GFS/GGEM/RGEM/ICON vs ECM/NAM in winter storm superbowl 2018! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 GFS basically zero red line south and east would be screwed here in Media Delaware County but this makes sense in a weak situation without dynamics rain may be the case of rain here in Media with a few darts passing through while Red Sky Country is snowing with 2-4" on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 This will be my snowfall map that I will just stay with from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 ^ That's pretty good....reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: This will be my snowfall map that I will just stay with from earlier Need to add the right hook to Monmouth County snow county usa next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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