The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 another thing to note, the gfs does not typically have the resolution to pin point those heavy bands 1 and because of that the column never dynamically cools hence why it is warmer. I definitely think that if you are in a heavy or even moderate echo, it will be all snow. Temps will rely on that as even mt holly has pointed out the storm is running into a pretty dry airmass so wet bulb temps should knock our surface temps down noticeably especially if this hits hard and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 19 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Rgem cooler and similar banding structure to the NAM. The trends on the mesos have been great if you live in extreme SE PA and inland towards the delaware river in South and Central Jersey. That 4-6" band has definitely trended south today. Unfortunate for N and W of 95 though as precip totals were definitely cut big time. The trends on the mesos are great for places like DC. Looks like 4-8" band setting up down that's way as guidance continues to hone in on where the banding sets up S of our region and into Southern NJ. The Mid Atl deserves this one as we continue to nickel and dime our way to avg seasonal snowfall in SE PA. We take. 2.3" that's all I want. i just keep telling myself over and over 2.3", 2.3", 2.3" I'm just inside the good rates so i cant afford much more of a shift but still looking good for at least that 2.3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2.3" that's all I want. i just keep telling myself over and over 2.3", 2.3", 2.3" I'm just inside the good rates so i cant afford much more of a shift but still looking good for at least that 2.3"... I think you achieve that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Ignore the Canadians silly skipping SEPA zone with lighter Qpf it has 4" from DC to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 Another thing to keep in mind is that we are still 30 hours out from the start of the event. We aren't done with the ticks yet and the models likely still have adjustments to make with temps as well. And with the trends being north last minute of synoptic events of late, I would not be surprised if 00z tonight ticks back north a bit especially if the trend of a faster ramp up of the low occurs. Very volatile set up. I don't envy mt holly at all. Safe bet would be to issue a WWA region wide then upgrade to wsw in areas that warrant it as the storm unfolds especially since this isn't occurring on a big travel time period. But they have seemed more bullish overall so it will be interesting to see if they issue a WSW for parts of the area. Either decision I would support 100% as you can make a solid case for either decision. I am confident that a section of our area sees WSW criteria, but since it is a relatively narrow area, it is difficult to say right now with high confidence where that will be... So the question is do you issue a WSW for a wide area knowing that it will verify is parts of that area but bust in parts or just issue a WWA and upgrade that in areas as it is already occurring...neither one is a great choice. Can't wait for them to update their thoughts this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Ignore the Canadians silly skipping SEPA zone with lighter Qpf it has 4" from DC to NYC agreed...if precip rates are what the model shows, that is snow no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Of course the Ukie comes in and has a less qpf zone between DC and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 ukie like the gfs has been completely erratic in it's last 6 runs... hard to pick them over the EE rulers that have been fairly consistent for that same time period. until the euro wavers, my money is on them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 We take the euro and it's general 4-5" snow area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: We take the euro and it's general 4-5" snow area wide More times than not I would take that as being a slam dunk with the event being so close but the euro has pretty much sucked this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Models are literally all over the place with this event from heavy qpf to light qpf, cold, warm, banding, no banding, west track, east track, more amped, less amped, weaker lp, stronger lp. What a tough event to forecast. Geez! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 It's a good storm to pad seasonal numbers and for the kids, although happening Sunday morning will cost them a snow day. Also a good one for those of us with bad backs it's going to be half gone by nightfall Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's a good storm to pad seasonal numbers and for the kids, although happening Sunday morning will cost them a snow day. Also a good one for those of us with bad backs it's going to be half gone by nightfall Sunday. Wow you're right. 45 for a high here on Sunday. Won't have to shovel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 EE rule ftw... I'll take those two that have been locked in for 36 hours now over the field honestly. We are in for a very solid event and for some the biggest event of the year for some. Sit back and enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: EE rule ftw... I'll take those two that have been locked in for 36 hours now over the field honestly. We are in for a very solid event and for some the biggest event of the year for some. Sit back and enjoy! Bring it home for us!! Which areas are you looking at receiving their biggest event of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Newman said: Wow you're right. 45 for a high here on Sunday. Won't have to shovel! It's going to melt from the bottom up and top down ezzzpeezzee chicken cheesy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Models are literally all over the place with this event from heavy qpf to light qpf, cold, warm, banding, no banding, west track, east track, more amped, less amped, weaker lp, stronger lp. What a tough event to forecast. Geez! The euro and nam have been prety damn consistent. Like most snow events for our area, where bands set up will make a big difference in snow amounts. One thing I can guarantee though, I will be in an area of subsistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Bring it home for us!! Which areas are you looking at receiving their biggest event of the year? "Nick Foles The Iceman steps on to the field down with the eagles trailing by a point in the 4th quarter..." Right now I'm thinking somewhere in south jersey maybe 10-20 miles from the turnpike(glassboro, lindenwold, woodbury) area possibly is going to see 6 inches and most of that will fall in a 4-5 hour time period... but i wouldn't be surprised if anyone along the delaware river or even just N and W of 95 sees 6 inches out of this. the mesos and euro have pointed towards a narrow band of precip enhanced by the jet is going to set up somewhere in our area for sure. But I do not believe the models have the placement of this band locked at all yet. I think we see it tick north at 00z just based off of the last few events in February that have amplified....not enough to ruin the thermals though for most folks. Whoever gets in on that band, is going to see their biggest snow of the year and it is going to rip for a solid 4 or 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 The entire 12z hi res wrf suite (NMM ARW and ARW2) all crush extreme SE PA and South Central NJ with 4-8" for most. they've done well this winter in borderline events. Also rare for them all to be showing a big hit in the same general area. When they are inaccurate they tend to be all over the place between the 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I feel like we've had less than 10 inches of snow this winter so far here. What's the official tally for PHI?Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Newman said: Wow you're right. 45 for a high here on Sunday. Won't have to shovel! Be careful what you wish for. Many years back, when I lived in NNJ, we had a storm on the overnight of March 21-22; NYC recorded 4.9". I was babysitting 4 kids and their parents got back about 1:30 AM (I'd been fully forewarned) at which time I drove home thru SN+ with 1-2" new. I slept until after 10 the next morning (it was Saturday), and by the time I got up it was sunny and near 50, and only patches remained. That storm held the NYC record for the date (until topped a few years later) and it disappointed this future weenie that I didn't get to see the snowy scene in daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 through hour 26 it looks like we are about to get Nam'd at 18z. More amplified, heavier precip incoming quicker than 12z. Could be a big run for SE PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 Yep SE PA absolutely NAM'd at 18z. 4-6" with 7-8" lolli's likely. did bump north a bit with the death band and also was a bit more amped. comes in fast in furious too...6 hours of heavy snow then tapers off for 2 hours...about 8 hours total it looks like but it dumps for the majority of the time. could be a very fun quick storm that over performs in spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 A Philly Burbs Special on the 12k NAM. Great run overall for SE PA...Warmer for S Jersey though and they get caught in subsistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I really have to soak this in. For many of us in this subforum we are in the bulls eye. No more tics/tweaking either way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Yep SE PA absolutely NAM'd at 18z. 4-6" with 7-8" lolli's likely. did bump north a bit with the death band and also was a bit more amped. comes in fast in furious too...6 hours of heavy snow then tapers off for 2 hours...about 8 hours total it looks like but it dumps for the majority of the time. could be a very fun quick storm that over performs in spots...Cant be right....has me smack dab in the golden shovel jackpot zone :-) :-)There is no doubt Sunday-Monday warms and melts. The cool trend is before guidance was a little later and slower with the system pulling away which allowed mid and lower level thermals to rot flipping most of us to rain before ending. Almost all guidance has everything in and out with perfect timing in so that about an hour after the final flakes it starts to melt, so no flip. The melt/warmth is inevitable but the trend towards zero flippage prior to that in SE PA is a nice treat! Awaiting rest of 18z but Iceman will be happy to hear I may need to tweak my prelim 1-4" call up a hair. Bring it home Foles, err, Iceman! Philly special?? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I really have to soak this in. For many of us in this subforum we are in the bulls eye. No more tics/tweaking either way...Awaiting further confirmation from the 3k, rgem, gfs, hdrps at 18z. Good start, honestly didnt expect the tick back N and bump in qpf and increased fronto banding/jet lift features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Time to activate the Monmouth county snow magnets to full power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Cmon push that 6" line back up this way, I see Mt Holly going with 2-4 for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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