Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 18z rgem looks like the gfs irt to track, strength, and overall warmish signal. Precip rate is not too heavy either. Hopefully 18z was a hiccup but not loving the trends. Even the srefs backed off on qpf. NAM is alone at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Wow Steve D. going with really low snowfall accumulations so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 00z nam even colder than 18z. Secs for all. Nam is very very rarely the coldest model. Red flag the others may be too warm imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 NAM is a fun paste bomb for all of us with missiles, cat paws and lil asteroids pouring from the sky early Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 3k nam is even colder and shows heavy rates for a solid 6 hours... Very encouraging start. Gfs has changed every 6 hours so I don't really have much stock in it. Cmc/euro/uk/rgem are what I'm looking towards to see if they also come in colder. The fact the 3k is the coldest is a great sign imo that model does great with temps and has done really well in the snow to rain events of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 For my yard 4" ties 2013 and 7" ties 2009. Need 10" for average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Hence the large grain of salt. Getting nam'd a day or 2 out is an old tradition that hasn't happened for a while, so it's a fun thing - kind of like an encouragement. How's the leg/foot?Hey I go back Monday actually thanks for asking. It hasn't snowed since I had this surgery 6 weeks ago lolSent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Fox29 @ 10 a tad conservative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Fox29 @ 10 a tad conservative....Seems very reasonable to me....probably because it is in line with my thoughts lol. ICON cut totals in half AGAIN (1-3") as did the GFS (c-2"). The trends are real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 ^ GFS all the way with them That model has been a buzz kill all winter long and continues at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 00z nam even colder than 18z. Secs for all. Nam is very very rarely the coldest model. Red flag the others may be too warm imoOthers arent too warm, they are just dry....very dry. That is our biggest issue, not necessarily temps. Coming in colder is great but if the precip craps out we are looking at another nickel and dime type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Fox29 @ 10 a tad conservative.... Seems very reasonable to me....probably because it is in line with my thoughts lol. ICON cut totals in half AGAIN (1-3") as did the GFS (c-2"). The trends are real. Puts you and I in the 2-4" so I'm cool with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 Riding the nam/euro off of the proverbial cliff here lol The old EE rule ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 ^ GFS all the way with them That model has been a buzz kill all winter long and continues at 0z Cant go against seasonal trends. GFS is the new king and probably had the right idea all along with the more progressive look and storm can never get its act together until too late for the area. Wont crown it the new king just yet but rgem is drier and the srefs are remarkably dry considering they are in the nam family. NAM is a major outlier unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I havent mentioned it today due to fear of being burned at the stake but the CRAS never wavered and the usually most amped model continues to show the most progressive solution. A coating is pushing it verbatim on the CRAS as precip is sheared and stays S and E of the m/d line for the most part and what does fall in SE PA is showery type white rain. That right there is your massive red flag. Otoh, the NAM almost always goes nuts with these types of systems and throws out ridiculous qpf amounts. It does have some support from the euro but that model hasnt exactly performed too well this year and has slowwwwly been backing down totals ever since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Dont even look at the GGEM guys, save yourselves the anguish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Don't look at the GEFS either, and don't look at the Ukie dropping qpf.... This is absurd everything is trying to point at another Lucy yank yet AGAIN after being pulled back in hook line and sinker 0z ECM/Ukie last night and 12z ECM/UKIE/UKMET would get a winter fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 23 hours ago, RedSky said: GFS is like Germany in early 1945 - not looking too good LOL - Is GFS headed for the all time coup vs all other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: LOL - Is GFS headed for the all time coup vs all other models That is certainly possible, the Euro has certainly been a shell of it's former self and the NAM could be overdoing things for this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, Cobalt said: lmao - nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 For those still praying for a miracle, the Euro simply has not wavered. Cut back some again but nothing absurd like the other guidance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The amount of spread among guidance right now with such little lead time is remarkable tbh. Even among individual ens members the amount of big ticket hits vs literally complete misses is something I dont recall seeing in quite a long time. I said this since Wednesday and will say again now with even greater affirmation that the bust potential on either side for this one is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: For those still praying for a miracle, the Euro simply has not wavered. Cut back some again but nothing absurd like the other guidance: ^Nothing wrong with that.... but yeah it's strange how all over the map the models are with not much time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Mt.Holly has issued a WSW here from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for 4-6" of snow expected here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Mt.Holly has issued a WSW here from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for 4-6" of snow expected here. " * WHERE...Most of southeastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey." I'm pretty shocked at the amounts... http://tinyurl.com/ycdf593u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: " * WHERE...Most of southeastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey." I'm pretty shocked at the amounts... http://tinyurl.com/ycdf593u WSW in effect for NYC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 It's a shame if we get a decent thump it'll melt rather quickly w/the temps spiking starting Sunday through next week. The life span of anything that accumulates is practically zilch ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Accu weather moved the 1-3" line way up into upper Bucks/Mont counties where as yesterday it stopped in lower Bucks/Mont counties then went 3-6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.