Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS is again not a flake The current state of modelling is a cosmic joke Funny, not a flake for either of us.....just a few plain rain sprinkles. The tightrope walk gets even tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Even the amped up guidance is now showing a very progressive and fast hitting system with no blocking to slow it down. In and out. Have a hunch tonight or by 12z tomorrow Euro caves towards the gfs. Hope Im wrong but this is starting to play out like every other minor event this year. We take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 21 minutes ago, RedSky said: GFS is again not a flake The current state of modelling is a cosmic joke Funny, not a flake for either of us.....just a few plain rain sprinkles. The tightrope walk gets even tighter. This better not be fizzling out but i feel it is, I bought into this at 12z this WOULD be another Lucy i will fall on my butt hard and it will hurt. This is part of the payback for the superbowl win you can be sure. I was really looking forward to the spring - snow - spring roller coaster ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GGEM has a 1-3"/2-4" quick hitter for SE PA with heaviest snow axis being shifted S and E. Took another small step towards the GFS at h5 especially irt holding back S energy and shearing it out. Thats the takeaway I see. So not the greatest trends at 0z so far if hoping for a warning level system immediate PHL burbs in SE PA but probably looking at another nickel and dime type event to tack on for the season. I think as we move forward the euro will start to move towards the gfs and the gfs will slowly and stubbornly try to move towards tbe euro meeting somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Cecily/Accu-weather at 11:20pm...not a bad map. A little vague but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Birds~69 said: Cecily/Accu-weather at 11:20pm...not a bad map. A little vague but... What did the the snow hater on NBC say wait let me guess "more spring showers this weekend" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: What did the the snow hater on NBC say wait let me guess "more spring showers this weekend" Olympics are on but that sounds about right. I'll know in about 25min... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Cecily/Accu-weather at 11:20pm...not a bad map. A little vague but...Has she even aged? I mean seriously? I have video from the 96 storm and she looks almost exactly the same. She inherited from a good gene pool apparently. Oh and the map looks nice too. OK, back on-topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Cecily/Accu-weather at 11:20pm...not a bad map. A little vague but... Has she even aged? I mean seriously? I have video from the 96 storm and she looks almost exactly the same. She inherited from a good gene pool apparently. Oh and the map looks nice too. OK, back on-topic. Look she has red on too highest chance to score Her and Kate from channel 3 can come over and measure my snow any time they want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Cecily/Accu-weather at 11:20pm...not a bad map. A little vague but... Has she even aged? I mean seriously? I have video from the 96 storm and she looks almost exactly the same. She inherited from a good gene pool apparently. Oh and the map looks nice too. OK, back on-topic. And she'll be 49 in a month....she's very exercise/health conscious from her marathons and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Crazy uncle is amped and on steroids probably a heavy rainer! All tracks are in the mix this is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 31 minutes ago, RedSky said: What did the the snow hater on NBC say wait let me guess "more spring showers this weekend" "We can't talk about totals right now....maybe tomorrow. A 50 mile swing can make all the difference blah blah blah" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 ECM snow us 5-7" highest amounts lower counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS is like Germany in early 1945 - not looking too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Looking like we just started to lose out Southern Slider solutions. Now we are walking the line with mild air trying to ruin our fun. 6z GFS went from virtually nothing to white rain in one run. Euro looks good.....drier via more progressive quick hitter. 6z ICON went nuts locking in the colder air somehow. 6z NAM is thump to rain and slowly continues to be 1 degree warmer each run. Gonna be close. Bust potential increasing (too much waa flips us over too quickly....cold air hp hangs in and totals jump significantly.....could bust either side) . Still thinking low end WWA material for now extreme SE PA (lower Bucks, PHL, Delco) but there is upside for a warning type storm. Like I said earlier, it will probably end up a 1-3"/2-4" deal in the spots I mentioned above as all snow with the Southern track OR via a thump to rain. Iceman has the correct concern attm with the taint/rain thing being of greater concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Of note on the EPS individual members, there is still a weak sauce Southern slider cluster being shown with a good amount of the members missing the area completely. However, there is the amped up camp as well which seem to be of greater number. Some of those amped solutions give extreme SE PA all rain. A couple are all snow (including the op), but majority are quick thump to rain for lower bucks, Delco, PHL with a minor wwa type event. Those solution place Red Sky in the bullseye ie upper Bucks, N Montco, Chesco, part of LV. Going to be a nail biter for areas like mine right on the line. BL temps suck overall to begin with so my expectations are low end with some upside possible. Hoping we can end with an overperformer like we had several times earlier in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 This seems like another storm where snowfall maps from the models will need to be taken lightly due to borderline BL temps and a warm ground from the 50s and 60s the next couple days. I would expect nothing more than 6" tops at this moment. Most here will likely fall in the 2-4/3-5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Accu weather tweaked there accumulation % from late last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Accu weather tweaked there accumulation % from late last night... Not a fan of this new % probability thing personally. Maybe it's better for the general public? If they understand statistics? Anyway, that seems fairly accurate. Best shot is this being a light event overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Our DTN (i'ts like Wxism but different) is showing temps above 32 from start to finish IMBY. Unless it's a hard thump, I don't see much of this sticking to the roads, and what does stick will be melted come sunrise. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Gonna white rain all nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I like it, use to wonder why they would have a cloud and rain with 20% chance of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 We will likely know where this is headed by 12z imo. The warmish trends need to stop pronto....we are out of wiggle room. Lead time isnt too bad BUT if we continue seeing the NAM upticking temps as it enters it's more reliable range and the GFS follows suit without much of a trend the other way, I fear white rain will be the predominant precip with any accums on grass and cartops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 I disagree about white rain. If we get snow, it's gonna stick. It's going to be heavy And the rates should overcome temps. Plus it's an all night time event. I'm more worried about plain rain but I still think we would see a high end wwa before a changeover. The two most consistent models cmc and euro are still on board so until they change my thoughts are pretty much the same from yesterday. I have much less confidence though in an all snow event for half of se pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not a fan of this new % probability thing personally. Maybe it's better for the general public? If they understand statistics? Anyway, that seems fairly accurate. Best shot is this being a light event overall. God help us if people can't understand percentages but I'm sure many will be confused. It's more of a look of "what may happen" in advance which I don't mind. (Kinda like DT's 1st call) Then nail it down w/numbers later. The other networks didn't give anything last night ...didn't see them this morning so they may have updated. My "off the top of my head prediction"....sloppy 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 God help us if people can't understand percentages but I'm sure many will be confused. It's more of a look of "what may happen" in advance which I don't mind. (Kinda like DT's 1st call) Then nail it down w/numbers later. The other networks didn't give anything last night ...didn't see them this morning so they may have updated. My "off the top of my head prediction"....sloppy 2".Agreed, more of a slushy grass/cartopper in our area....minor slush on roads. We need good rates if we hope to cash in and cool the column enough for good accum.....light stuff isnt going to cut it thus the higher bust potential with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 All 3 ensemble means place the axis of heavier snow just N and W of 95. That is where I believe right now is the sweet spot. Below that, it is going to be close and precip type may become an issue. Still the timing is perfect for this event being all overnight so we do have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: God help us if people can't understand percentages but I'm sure many will be confused. It's more of a look of "what may happen" in advance which I don't mind. (Kinda like DT's 1st call) Then nail it down w/numbers later. The other networks didn't give anything last night ...didn't see them this morning so they may have updated. My "off the top of my head prediction"....sloppy 2". Agreed, more of a slushy grass/cartopper in our area....minor slush on roads. We need good rates if we hope to cash in and cool the column enough for good accum.....light stuff isnt going to cut it thus the higher bust potential with this one. I mean .6-1.0" of precip over 10 hours is fairly good rates. The progressive nature here and the amount of precip falling in a very short period may actually help us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I mean .6-1.0" of precip over 10 hours is fairly good rates. The progressive nature here and the amount of precip falling in a very short period may actually help us here.I want to hold judgment until 1:30pm-ish after the 12z has completed (save for the eps). I will try and post thoughts but tied up with appointments most of the morning. Hopefully those rates u mentioned hold steady. Nervous about a shift since the energy will just be nearing the West coast at 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 well as I posted before I only really want 2.3" for this event. I still think that is very likely at this time for lower bucks, inland S and Central jersey, and Philly even if we do end up changing to rain. The GFS imo has trended towards the Euro bigly at 6z. The euro being one of the coldest models is also a good thing to me...very rarely is the euro too cold and very often it is too warm on events so that is another positive aspect. While this isn't an arctic front, it should be fresh enough that the models may be underdoing the temps right now as well as not taking into account the heavy rates that will be associated. Not as confident in a WSW event as yesterday but I am not pessimistic at all at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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