BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Where are you getting the Euro? Its only out to 24 on Wxbell TT must be faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Where are you getting the Euro? Its only out to 24 on Wxbell weathermodels at 9.99 a month lol. its terrible but its less terrible than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 ryan mahue loves weathermodels.com. He could care less about weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 so the 2 worst models that give us the most snow are giving us the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: This is the winter of n, s, e, w of the D.C. snow hole. But in this case...something like this seems to have a somewhat better chance of breaking our way than the previous setup the models have been showing the past few days. So it's kinda like we may have two dice to roll this time instead of just one, lol (if it misses just south, I think that'll send a number of us off the ledge! If it's gonna miss l, I'd much rather it be because of a non-workable setup than because of something that could've worked just missing south!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But in this case...something like this seems to have a somewhat better chance of breaking our way than the previous setup the models have been showing the past few days. So it's kinda like we may have two dice to roll this time instead of just one, lol (if it misses just south, I think that'll send a number of us off the ledge! If it's gonna miss l, I'd much rather it be because of a non-workable setup than because of something that could've eorked just missing south!) I'd be surprised with something sliding south in the forecast range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Only good sign I can get is by extrapolating the 384hr pattern. The Negative height anomolies in the east Atlantic are retrograding towards the East Coast, possible decent pattern the first week in March if there's enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 27 minutes ago, Amped said: Only good sign I can get is by extrapolating the 384hr pattern. The Negative height anomolies in the east Atlantic are retrograding towards the East Coast, possible decent pattern the first week in March if there's enough cold air. I saw that too, that was cool to see. An outcome of the changes over the North Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Not that it is earth shattering but we did see a jump on the snowfall means for the weekend from the GEFS. Went from trace amounts in the cities to where the inch line is now just south/east of the cities. Roughly half of the members are now showing a 1/2 inch or better through the cities. One member has 6-9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 A little hope for y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Hopefully the geps and gefs are on to something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Hopefully the geps and gefs are on to something... Blocking does not guarantee cold for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Blocking does not guarantee cold for us. somtimes it blocks us from getting cold air lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Blocking does not guarantee cold for us. Nothing guarantees anything is this hobby....I'm more about odds. A robust -NAO increases our odds and that all I care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Please go away Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 7 hours ago, Mdecoy said: Other than the fluke, does March really deliver? Snowquester sticks in my mind where its like "Oh this looks like a great storm" and it was rain. The pattern seems to be looking more favorable (as it has numerous times this year in the LR), but I think even perfect patterns in March have a tough time delivering anything? We can talk negative NAOs and and good looks all we want, but I don't think odds are that great even in "good patterns". I think odds at this point highly favor essentially a shutout for the rest of the winter and a historically bad 2 year period for DC. It depends what you consider "deliver" and it depends where in our "area" you live. If we define that as "warning" criteria snowfall and we round 4.5" up since warning is loosely applied usually and an "average" across a county not one specific location...here are the actual facts for several locations across our area. Since 1940 at BWI, DCA BWI: 23% of the time had a warning event, 3 years with 2 warning events... one with 3 warning events... Max storm snowfall of 14" DCA: 16% of the time had a warning event, 1 year with 2 warning events. Max storm of 11.5" Since 1960 when records began IAD: 25% of the time had a warning event after March 1. 17 warning events over 57 years. 3 years with 2 warning events. Max storm of 14.1" since 1940 here... Northeast Carroll County: 40% of the time had a warning event, 6 times with 2 warning events, Max snow event of 32" So even at DCA there is a better than 10% chance of getting a warning snow after March 1. So its not "CRAZY" even there. But as you move NW of the fall line in our area the chances increase dramatically to about 1 in 4 at Dulles to about 40% in the higher terrain in the western and northern 1/3 of our region. For those of us that live NW of the fall line March is definitely NOT a throw away month. Actually I average about as much snow in March and any other month really. If you live south and east of the cities or in the urban heat island then March is a much worse proposition... so you have to determine this based on your location. Keep in mind some people in here have different snow climo then others. I used to live in Southern NJ southeast of Philly and it SUCKED there. It was much worse then northern VA near IAD where I moved to in high school. As a kid I remember going multiple years in a row without a warning level snow. Then once I was in northern VA usually I would beat my old location 80 percent of the time. But when I lived in South Jersey I didn't expect snow. It was some rare thing to be treasured...I never went into any season expecting to get much snow at all. If it happened I was so happy but I just kind of expected us to not get it based on what normally happened there. That is why I kind of get confused when I see people that live somewhere that gets barely any snow most of the time, and only typically gets one warning level snow every 2 years, going crazy and carrying on when it doesn't snow. I hate to say it but not snowing in places that only average 16 or 18" of snow a year is kind of normal. Especially when a big chunk of that 16" average comes from a couple huge anomaly years every decade. I still feel for those people. I understand wanting it to snow. And I lived in a place like that once...but I moved because it didn't snow enough for me to be happy there. Frankly in seasons like this it still doesn't snow enough here for me to be happy but I am an adult about it and just suck it up and move on with my life. But at least here I am happy about 60% of the winters vs 20 percent of the winters. I feel like some people are setting themselves up to be unhappy all the time expecting snow in a place that just isn't going to get it that often. I really hope no one takes this the wrong way... but if you NEED snow to be happy... and you know where you live its only going to get enough snow 2/10 years....maybe instead of being this miserable 80 percent of the time you should move somewhere that gets more snow. Life is too short...you only get one go... why be miserable. And if it doesn't really bother you that much...then stop carrying on like it does. PS: this is not directed all at you MDECOY but more of a public service announcement towards everyone that seems so bent out of shape over snow the last couple years...I really am worried about some of you. If it bothers you this much... consider if its worth being this frustrated so often every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 euro looks better by the end of Feb Neg NAO altough really east based SE ridge flater Temps slight above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 I can work with that euro look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Today was a win on guidance... First...all disclaimers apply, its 15 days away, low confidence, blah blah blah...yes I know That said all the long range guidance took a significant step in the direction we want today. We are going to be fighting a pretty ugly SE ridge and its not going to just instantly flip to a snowy regime. But from where all the guidance shows us day 15 it should get there. Now that is depending on the 15 day progs to be correct so laugh at it if you want I can't blame you for that...but its a better place to be in that needing to hope the guidance is all wrong AND it evolves in a good way. From that look day 15 we should get some opportunities after that. I would guess by day 20 there would be enough trough in the east to keep a system under us. Light at the end of the tunnel. Its probably a train coming but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can work with that euro look Yeah it made a nice step in the right direction. 12z GEFS looks really close to a nice h5 pattern just beyond day 15. I also like that the CFS has the same general look the global ensembles have at day 15, and week 3 it evolves to a really decent workable pattern, and gets better week 4...Nino-ish look with a perfectly placed west-based block. It has been consistent for a while now with that progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it made a nice step in the right direction. 12z GEFS looks really close to a nice h5 pattern just beyond day 15. I also like that the CFS has the same general look the global ensembles have at day 15, and week 3 it evolves to a really decent workable pattern, and gets better week 4...Nino-ish look with a perfectly placed west-based block. It has been consistent for a while now with that progression. Yea from where the ensembles leave off we would progress into a pretty good pattern. It's not crazy. 1956,1965,1976,1984,1999 and 2009 are all La Niña years where we got some good snow in march after a generally sucky winter. Almost pulled it off last year too. Not sure where the notion that ninas end early and bad came from but for my money a high percentage of ninas that are crappy overall go out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 9 hours ago, Chris78 said: There are about 12 or 13 EPS members that get snow into the area next weekend. Some are focused for the norther parts of the forum and some are more for south of dc. Not a majority for by any means but as @showmethesnow has been saying I wouldn' t totally write next weekend off yet. I counted 18 or 19 members from the 12z eps that get snow into part of the forum or all of the forum. Some focused north and some south. Nice increase of members over the 0z run. There are a few big hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 I counted 18 or 19 members from the 12z eps that get snow into part of the forum or all of the forum. Some focused north and some south. Nice increase of members over the 0z run. There are a few big hits in there. I wish the op models would play ball for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I counted 18 or 19 members from the 12z eps that get snow into part of the forum or all of the forum. Some focused north and some south. Nice increase of members over the 0z run. There are a few big hits in there. I wish the op models would play ball for once Imagine you are referring to 18z. The GFS looks quite steady from previous runs. Cold front pressing slowly south. Then follow up wave that could get Hampton Roads yet again. Groundhog Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Imagine you are referring to 18z. The GFS looks quite steady from previous runs. Cold front pressing slowly south. Then follow up wave that could get Hampton Roads yet again. Groundhog Day. Every event lately has trended north inside of 72 hours. The ice storm last Wednesday was looking like a nice thump of snow for the northern areas that trended north. Hopefully we see the same with this one but with our luck this one probably bucks the trend..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Every event lately has trended north inside of 72 hours. The ice storm last Wednesday was looking like a nice thump of snow for the northern areas that trended north. Hopefully we see the same with this one but with our luck this one probably bucks the trend..lolThey only trend North when we need a south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Focusing on the bottom image, did the EPS just jump to show the NAO to go negative? In DT's video where he referenced the 0z EPO (maybe 12z yesterday), and it only hit neutral by the 26th. Seems like a jump to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Nice to see a gfs op run that gets NA blocking going around the timeframe its ens are showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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