Chris78 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 There are about 12 or 13 EPS members that get snow into the area next weekend. Some are focused for the norther parts of the forum and some are more for south of dc. Not a majority for by any means but as @showmethesnow has been saying I wouldn' t totally write next weekend off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: It's probably futile even discussing but the 06z gefs are even more robust toward the end of the run with a -NAO. You can see how that could evolve pretty quick into a solid pattern...GEPS tend to agree but as noted earlier...the EPS will have nothing to do with it. Wait and see... CFS takes that same look and does exactly that for the following 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 51 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: It’s only Feb 12. Yes it looks bleak but it’s still mid Feb. can’t just write it off yet. Wait until March 12th It's been over since mid january ??? You mean Dec 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Feb is gone, unless something miraculous happens this weekend. Looking beyond that, the first 10 days to 2 weeks of March hold some promise. The -NAO looks stout on the latest runs of the GEFS, and appears to be building SW into the money position for us. Even though there is a trough out west towards day 15, the ridge in the east looks weaker on the 0z and 6z runs. Looks like the GEFS and GEPS have made some small moves away from the EPS the last couple cycles. Couple that with the CFS weeklies- it has a very similar look to the GEFS/GEPS for week 2, but the pattern evolves to a more favorable one for weeks 3 and 4 with a big block over Davis Strait, and a less hostile EPAC. It has been consistent with this general evolution for a while now. Something to keep an eye on over the next few days on the ensembles. This sounds like a broke record these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 ??? You mean Dec 8thNo....someone people actually count 15 days below 32 as winter....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: This sounds like a broke record these days. Complete failure is definitely an option. Not a certainty though, so it doesn't really make sense to constantly announce that winter is over because the trusty guidance at 15 day leads looks bleak. That accomplishes nothing other demonstrating ones frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Other than the fluke, does March really deliver? Snowquester sticks in my mind where its like "Oh this looks like a great storm" and it was rain. The pattern seems to be looking more favorable (as it has numerous times this year in the LR), but I think even perfect patterns in March have a tough time delivering anything? We can talk negative NAOs and and good looks all we want, but I don't think odds are that great even in "good patterns". I think odds at this point highly favor essentially a shutout for the rest of the winter and a historically bad 2 year period for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Complete failure is definitely an option. Not a certainty though, so it doesn't really make sense to constantly announce that winter is over because the trusty guidance at 15 day leads looks bleak. That accomplishes nothing other demonstrating ones frustration. Just because it isn't a certainty, people don't get to mention that the winter may be over? For a lot of us, it is. A storm in March would be nice, depending on when it is, but if it murders my flowering trees again (like happened last year) after the supposed best part of winter has been ****, I don't want that. And watching February go by without snow (if it goes down like that), this regions prime snow month, is another kick in the teeth. In any event a three week warmup followed by arctic cold in March? Eff that noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 18 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Other than the fluke, does March really deliver? Snowquester sticks in my mind where its like "Oh this looks like a great storm" and it was rain. The pattern seems to be looking more favorable (as it has numerous times this year in the LR), but I think even perfect patterns in March have a tough time delivering anything? We can talk negative NAOs and and good looks all we want, but I don't think odds are that great even in "good patterns". I think odds at this point highly favor essentially a shutout for the rest of the winter and a historically bad 2 year period for DC. through March? shutout favored? interesting. Past results are no guarantee of future performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 34 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: In any event a three week warmup followed by arctic cold in March? Eff that noise. I’m gonna be pissed if my flowering trees get nuked yet again. Would be the third winter in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 40 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Just because it isn't a certainty, people don't get to mention that the winter may be over? For a lot of us, it is. A storm in March would be nice, depending on when it is, but if it murders my flowering trees again (like happened last year) after the supposed best part of winter has been ****, I don't want that. And watching February go by without snow (if it goes down like that), this regions prime snow month, is another kick in the teeth. In any event a three week warmup followed by arctic cold in March? Eff that noise. One could argue that March isn't winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 37 minutes ago, BristowWx said: through March? shutout favored? interesting. Past results are no guarantee of future performance. True, it obviously can snow, but if the pattern is going to produce, it needs to do so quickly into March. Each day in gets less favorable. Sun angles, needing temps to be 30 degrees to accumulate, need it to fall at night, all this stuff becomes more of a struggle with each passing day, and the odds quickly go against us even in a good setup or pattern. Time is never on our side in March, and having punted all of our peak climo like it ain't no thing, hope is not inspired here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Mdecoy said: True, it obviously can snow, but if the pattern is going to produce, it needs to do so quickly into March. Each day in gets less favorable. Sun angles, needing temps to be 30 degrees to accumulate, need it to fall at night, all this stuff becomes more of a struggle with each passing day, and the odds quickly go against us even in a good setup or pattern. Time is never on our side in March, and having punted all of our peak climo like it ain't no thing, hope is not inspired here. These are all true statements...still I like our chances in March but I have nothing to back my enthusiasm other than some weak ensemble forecasts and the fact that we have failed up until now and most everyone is saying its over. We had epic looks on the guidance and yet nothing. we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Mdecoy said: Other than the fluke, does March really deliver? Snowquester sticks in my mind where its like "Oh this looks like a great storm" and it was rain. The pattern seems to be looking more favorable (as it has numerous times this year in the LR), but I think even perfect patterns in March have a tough time delivering anything? We can talk negative NAOs and and good looks all we want, but I don't think odds are that great even in "good patterns". I think odds at this point highly favor essentially a shutout for the rest of the winter and a historically bad 2 year period for DC. Yeah, but other storms such as Saint Patricks day stick out too, where it was 70 the day before, 45 the day of, and we got 8-10" of snow. While it's a stretch to get a good storm in March, it has happened, and it's not like it's unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: It's probably futile even discussing but the 06z gefs are even more robust toward the end of the run with a -NAO. You can see how that could evolve pretty quick into a solid pattern...GEPS tend to agree but as noted earlier...the EPS will have nothing to do with it. Wait and see... Not could, that would evolve into a decent snow pattern. Unlikely to be cold. Most of the real cold gets routed and it's too late to really build it again although last year managed an impressive blast mid month so watch me eat those words. But that right there would make it likely for systems to stay under us and that can work. I don't care if it's 50 the day before and after if we get a warning event I'm calling it a win and celebrating. My guess where things go from there is that trough in the west gets forced under and probably is a rain event but the system after that would then be the one to watch. So around march 5-10th. But that's assuming the day 16 is right lol. Just speculation obviously but if that is right we would have one last window of opportunity in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not could, that would evolve into a decent snow pattern. Unlikely to be cold. Most of the real cold gets routed and it's too late to really build it again although last year managed an impressive blast mid month so watch me eat those words. But that right there would make it likely for systems to stay under us and that can work. I don't care if it's 50 the day before and after if we get a warning event I'm calling it a win and celebrating. My guess where things go from there is that trough in the west gets forced under and probably is a rain event but the system after that would then be the one to watch. So around march 5-10th. But that's assuming the day 16 is right lol. Just speculation obviously but if that is right we would have one last window of opportunity in march. This is an example of where your location is money. Not the only example but I could see a mixed slop mess in and near the cities but something better up your way. It has happened before and will again I am sure. But that's on reason why you moved there right. Has to be some payoff and it comes in March. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Even though the op got better, 00z GEPS backed off the weekend system a bit. About 1/4 of members get snow into DC. 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not could, that would evolve into a decent snow pattern. Unlikely to be cold. Most of the real cold gets routed and it's too late to really build it again although last year managed an impressive blast mid month so watch me eat those words. But that right there would make it likely for systems to stay under us and that can work. I don't care if it's 50 the day before and after if we get a warning event I'm calling it a win and celebrating. My guess where things go from there is that trough in the west gets forced under and probably is a rain event but the system after that would then be the one to watch. So around march 5-10th. But that's assuming the day 16 is right lol. Just speculation obviously but if that is right we would have one last window of opportunity in march. I know you don't have a lot of faith in the CFS, but the weeklies say we get another shot of cold in early March, roughly lining up with your March 5th timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m gonna be pissed if my flowering trees get nuked yet again. Would be the third winter in a row. Word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m gonna be pissed if my flowering trees get nuked yet again. Would be the third winter in a row. You may be okay up there if that pattern on the EPS lasts only 5-7 days or so. If it goes beyond that there will be trouble. Without a doubt the SE is going to have issues. I have heard Augusta is talking about trying to mass tarp the azaleas so they do not bloom this year (don't think that works). Remember too, that even in a very mild pattern the preceeding winter conditions can have an impact on whether early blooming occurs. If you have a week of 60s and 70s from 2/23-3/1 one year and January was +3 the blooming result may be different than a year where January -1 with the same temps in that week in late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Just because it isn't a certainty, people don't get to mention that the winter may be over? For a lot of us, it is. A storm in March would be nice, depending on when it is, but if it murders my flowering trees again (like happened last year) after the supposed best part of winter has been ****, I don't want that. And watching February go by without snow (if it goes down like that), this regions prime snow month, is another kick in the teeth. In any event a three week warmup followed by arctic cold in March? Eff that noise. Just throwing a contrarian idea in so don't think I'm being hostile. Just discussing...but wouldn't that be better in banter? Legit negatuve analysis is fine. Plenty of us have said the pattern looks bad and why. But pure complaining about how someone doesn't like it seems like banter or panic room stuff to me. Because 90% of us aren't happy and the people who make those kinds of emotional posts seem to outnumber the people making substantive analysis so if that belongs in here wouldn't this thread just come one big b!tch fest about how bad this winter was? Im pretty unhappy about it too. And I wouldn't mind venting a bit. Create a thread for that or do it in banter and panic and I'll participate but why does it have to be in this thread if some are still trying to simply objectively analyze the pattern? Im not upset about anything I'm just unsure why some insist in posting their frustrations in this thread when there are threads specifically created for that? Everyone can get what they want. They can complain 10 times a day and those that want a thread to analyze without 60 posts a day of complaints can have that too if we all simply post in the correct threads. I just don't understand why that's so hard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 12z ICON destroys us haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 12z ICON destroys us haha When does it not destroy us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: When does it not destroy us? it must think we are Pearl Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not could, that would evolve into a decent snow pattern. Unlikely to be cold. Most of the real cold gets routed and it's too late to really build it again although last year managed an impressive blast mid month so watch me eat those words. But that right there would make it likely for systems to stay under us and that can work. I don't care if it's 50 the day before and after if we get a warning event I'm calling it a win and celebrating. My guess where things go from there is that trough in the west gets forced under and probably is a rain event but the system after that would then be the one to watch. So around march 5-10th. But that's assuming the day 16 is right lol. Just speculation obviously but if that is right we would have one last window of opportunity in march. Speculating past day 16 during a year like we have had comes with big risks in here..lol But I still enjoy it.. Looping that run of the gefs has the trough backing into the east coast and the trough in SW continuing to fade off the coast. Higher heights starting in W Canada and wanting to connect to the NAO ridge. IMO, day 18-19 would be a beautiful look. Funny how both the gefs and geps had this look a few days ago and then lost it and then now both are picking back up on the idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Just now, poolz1 said: Speculating past day 16 during a year like we have had comes with big risks in here..lol But I still enjoy it.. Looping that run of the gefs has the trough backing into the east coast and the trough in SW continuing to fade off the coast. Higher heights starting in W Canada and wanting to connect to the NAO ridge. IMO, day 18-19 would be a beautiful look. Funny how both the gefs and geps had this look a few days ago and then lost it and then now both are picking back up on the idea... i can handle us being back into a wintry pattern march 1. This disaster is early enough that we lose February but we there is still time to get something. March 1 recovery is much better than March 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 12z ICON destroys us haha ICON does the same thing the 0z CMC did. Runs a trailer on the front. Within the realm....how lucky you feelin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: ICON does the same thing the 0z CMC did. Runs a trailer on the front. Within the realm....how lucky you feelin? about as lucky as Ted Leonsis when Ernie is drafting and making trades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: about as lucky as Ted Leonsis when Ernie is drafting and making trades Break out the mop then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 the 12z GFS looks better/different than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 GFS forgot to eject the s/w energy this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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