Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Feb is toast. So yeah we are left with a March hail mary. Its more of a long shot considering where the pattern is headed over the next 10 days, and the fact that we are in a Nina. But at least there is some hope...CFS!! i remember posting a few months ago that i couldnt recall many good Februarys in Nina. 1996? but it seems like most Nina--you better score early or your going to be a shutout. I called a February shutout last month. I hope i am wrong:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: It is what it is. I'm older now, so I'm much less emotional about it all. I'm ok if we get skunked. There's always next winter. If we're not going to get snow, it's time to root for mild and dry at this point. or maybe you went to Europe and saw more snow than you ever wanted to see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Just now, Ji said: i remember posting a few months ago that i couldnt recall many good Februarys in Nina. 1996? but it seems like most Nina--you better score early or your going to be a shutout. I called a February shutout last month. I hope i am wrong:( Seems about right. Feb 2011, Feb 2009, Feb 2012, Feb 2017, and probably this month were all god awful Februaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: i remember posting a few months ago that i couldnt recall many good Februarys in Nina. 1996? but it seems like most Nina--you better score early or your going to be a shutout. I called a February shutout last month. I hope i am wrong:( The best op was wasted for most of the subforum. We had a 2 week stretch of pretty brutal cold, and not much to show for it. I just chase when things are crap. Strange how I caught 2 great cold snowstorms in consecutive Januarys(blizzard this year)...at Rehoboth Beach. Both times I was planning to go to Canaan, and the beach was the better choice. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's been pretty bad for sure. I just don't even care anymore and it's not reverse psychology I honestly just don't care at this point. Going away this weekend and coming back Tuesday. Give me 70 and I'm ok. No need for misery and rain and 33 degrees. At this point, I'm not sure anything short of the blizzard of '93 will salvage this winter. Did Mdecoy Hijack your handle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: or maybe you went to Europe and saw more snow than you ever wanted to see lol That still wasn't enough 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Did Mdecoy Hijack your handle? Damn, was my post that bad??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn, was my post that bad??? NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Seems about right. Feb 2011, Feb 2009, Feb 2012, Feb 2017, and probably this month were all god awful Februaries. But the super awesome historic SSW event is going to make things different this time. You just cant ignore all the experts on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: I still haven't made my winter trek to Canaan. Been waiting for it to get 'good" there. lol. Hasn't worked out. I have 2 more weeks where my work schedule will allow me to escape for a few days. Sadly, I am actually considering late this week. I spent several days in northern Vermont during late December and had planned to go to XC skiing in New Germany State Park yesterday but chickened out due to concerns about rain and 51 degrees. Felt pretty smart when we had moderate rain by 11 AM here; not so smart when I saw the rain hold off in western Maryland until late in the day. The mean snow fall for various simulations that comprise the 18Z GEFS is T-1" of snow for most of the east coast north of South Carolina by this time next week. Although the "most" does not include much of our forum that could change by 00 UT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: I spent several days in northern Vermont during late December and had planned to go to XC skiing in New Germany State Park yesterday but chickened out due to concerns about rain and 51 degrees. Felt pretty smart when we had moderate rain by 11 AM here; not so smart when I saw the rain hold off in western Maryland until late in the day. The mean snow fall for various simulations that comprise the 18Z GEFS is T-1" of snow for most of the east coast north of South Carolina by this time next week. Although the "most" does not include much of our forum that could change by 00 UT. The way things look now, Canaan could see 4-5" next weekend. I will just watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: It is what it is. I'm older now, so I'm much less emotional about it all. I'm ok if we get skunked. There's always next winter. If we're not going to get snow, it's time to root for mild and dry at this point. the older i get i still love a good snowstorm, but i'm a little less attached to things i can't control. would be weird to have a partially frozen potomac in early jan and not a legit snowstorm to show for it, but maybe we're due for weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 hours ago, Ji said: i remember posting a few months ago that i couldnt recall many good Februarys in Nina. 1996? but it seems like most Nina--you better score early or your going to be a shutout. I called a February shutout last month. I hope i am wrong:( Out of the last 20 ninas 3 February's were very snowy. 1972, 1996, 2006. There were several acceptable average snow months too. 1955, 1974 and 1975. So 6 average of snowier and 14 crappy February's. Not great odds. But also pretty par for a Nina. Overall most are crappy. I think the one thing about a Nina is other then 1996 any snowy pattern is transient and doesn't lock in as a whole winter thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, 87storms said: the older i get i still love a good snowstorm, but i'm a little less attached to things i can't control. would be weird to have a partially frozen potomac in early jan and not a legit snowstorm to show for it, but maybe we're due for weird. Yeah, I mean look...I still love snow as much as I did when I was 4 years old..but I'm mature now and really not that emotional about it. 97-98 I was ready to jump off of a bridge. Seriously, I remember it because it was that gd traumatic. Now, I'm like...meh. Before I would NEVER plan a trip in snow season. Now I just roll the dice and so far, I haven't missed any big ones. Only 10 more months until winter '18-19! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I mean look...I still love snow as much as I did when I was 4 years old..but I'm mature now and really not that emotional about it. 97-98 I was ready to jump off of a bridge. Seriously, I remember it because it was that gd traumatic. Now, I'm like...meh. Before I would NEVER plan a trip in snow season. Now I just roll the dice and so far, I haven't missed any big ones. Only 10 more months until winter '18-19! I don't get hung up on this stuff anymore either. It's just weather. Fun hobby that's often frustrating or fruitless. But when it hits big it's a blast. If you aren't patient and lack of snow causes negative emotions then walk away from the entire hobby and never look back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I mean look...I still love snow as much as I did when I was 4 years old..but I'm mature now and really not that emotional about it. 97-98 I was ready to jump off of a bridge. Seriously, I remember it because it was that gd traumatic. Now, I'm like...meh. Before I would NEVER plan a trip in snow season. Now I just roll the dice and so far, I haven't missed any big ones. Only 10 more months until winter '18-19! oh trust me, i'd get real pissed off back in the day if we didn't get a storm. i was young and thought getting pissed off over something i can't control is normal. i still get down if a storm busts, but i'm not as attached to it. i also think the run from '13 to the blizzard helped with this snow drought. with that said...if nothing happens the rest of the winter then somethin' needs to happen next winter or else i may need to start applying to jobs in colorado or at least take some west coast trips lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 bring on summer! ........ too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 00z CMC looks like some of the better Euro runs for next weekend. ICON is not too far off either. GFS says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Final storm total rainfall of 1.93" here. Current temp 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 All hail the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 00z CMC looks like some of the better Euro runs for next weekend. ICON is not too far off either. GFS says no.Gfs always says no...and its always right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Overnight EPS? Blah...... Still a horrible look for snow chances in our extended. About the only thing positive I can say is that we have seen very marginal improvement with the NAO, EPO and the SE ridging. Unfortunately we also still have the strong SW troughing and the migration of the trop pv Northwestward. On a side note. Not calling for a snowstorm by any means but I don't think I would write off the possibility of seeing some snow quite yet for next weekend. Models have been evolving on how they want to handle all the energy they are dumping into the southwest prior to the weekend. GFS/GEFS in particular is now ejecting more energy and quicker. At this point we see high pressure building southward to squash that energy as it moves eastward though. But a little more easterly component and less southerly with that High and/or a weaker high could possibly give an opportunity for that energy sliding eastward. One way or the other though, if we see these changes continue with the handling of that SW energy as well as some cooperation from the High dropping in it would come as no surprise to see some changes with the pattern/weather this weekend then what is currently advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Overnight EPS? Blah...... Still a horrible look for snow chances in our extended. About the only thing positive I can say is that we have seen very marginal improvement with the NAO, EPO and the SE ridging. Unfortunately we also still have the strong SW troughing and the migration of the trop pv Northwestward. On a side note. Not calling for a snowstorm by any means but I don't think I would write off the possibility of seeing some snow quite yet for next weekend. Models have been evolving on how they want to handle all the energy they are dumping into the southwest prior to the weekend. GFS/GEFS in particular is now ejecting more energy and quicker. At this point we see high pressure building southward to squash that energy as it moves eastward though. But a little more easterly component and less southerly with that High and/or a weaker high could possibly give an opportunity for that energy sliding eastward. One way or the other though, if we see these changes continue with the handling of that SW energy as well as some cooperation from the High dropping in it would come as no surprise to see some changes with the pattern/weather this weekend then what is currently advertised. Break out the shorts and flip flops. Sorry I couldn't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 It’s only Feb 12. Yes it looks bleak but it’s still mid Feb. can’t just write it off yet. Wait until March 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 It’s only Feb 12. Yes it looks bleak but it’s still mid Feb. can’t just write it off yet. Wait until March 12thIt's been over since mid january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 6Z GFS is about as bad as you can get for Feb snowlovers. Cutters, rain, warm. Nothing even remotely close. This brings us to the last day of Feb, yes its a ways out there, but I don't even see how anything could trend in our favor (except maybe this weekend which is likely DOA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ji said: 35 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s only Feb 12. Yes it looks bleak but it’s still mid Feb. can’t just write it off yet. Wait until March 12th It's been over since mid january looking back if we get nothing else from this point it was over Dec 8th...at least for me. But even you know how an event or two can change everything. We cant just say with extreme confidence its over regardless of how its looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 9 hours ago, 87storms said: the older i get i still love a good snowstorm, but i'm a little less attached to things i can't control. would be weird to have a partially frozen potomac in early jan and not a legit snowstorm to show for it, but maybe we're due for weird. When I was younger I used to think I was being punished by God when the snow would miss us! LOL! I would not mind if snow went to the north, but when the south got snow and I did not, I would get angry! Yep, deep emotion when it comes to snow. And if it is me that is causing God to get so angry that none of us get snow, I should walk the plank like Jonah so God will get us the snow! LOL! Obviously, as I got older this got better. I still get more upset about snow to the south and a really close call to heavy snow, but a few times in the last 10 years I have been in the sweet spot for mega snow and I just cannot have been luckier! This winter has been frustrating with the model teases, but always a learning experience. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 It's probably futile even discussing but the 06z gefs are even more robust toward the end of the run with a -NAO. You can see how that could evolve pretty quick into a solid pattern...GEPS tend to agree but as noted earlier...the EPS will have nothing to do with it. Wait and see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Feb is gone, unless something miraculous happens this weekend. Looking beyond that, the first 10 days to 2 weeks of March hold some promise. The -NAO looks stout on the latest runs of the GEFS, and appears to be building SW into the money position for us. Even though there is a trough out west towards day 15, the ridge in the east looks weaker on the 0z and 6z runs. Looks like the GEFS and GEPS have made some small moves away from the EPS the last couple cycles. Couple that with the CFS weeklies- it has a very similar look to the GEFS/GEPS for week 2, and then the pattern evolves to a more favorable one for weeks 3 and 4 with a big block over Davis Strait, and a less hostile EPAC. It has been consistent with this general evolution for a while now. Something to keep an eye on over the next few days on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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