February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

[87storms]

e9 looks fun

[Ji]

euro is lousy. Looks like every other threat we have gotten. Precip looks good and it crosses the mountains and dies

[CAPE]

Check out the 12z GEFS at d15. Really nice look in the NA.. that will probably go to waste. The PV is too far NW, it efs with the E/NPAC, and we end up with more troughing in the west and the continuation of the SE ridge. Nina look all the way, and all the "historic" SSW event is likely to do is reinforce it. Eh, who knows, if the NAO can stay negative long enough, maybe we can get lucky. Mid March maybe lol.

[Amped]

NAO going negative towards day 15 on the GEFS, right as the EPO turns to crap. 

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Check out the 12z GEFS at d15. Really nice look in the NA.. that will probably go to waste. The PV is too far NW, it efs with the E/NPAC, and we end up with more troughing in the west and the continuation of the SE ridge. Nina look all the way, and all the "historic" SSW event is likely to do is reinforce it. Eh, who knows, if the NAO can stay negative long enough, maybe we can get lucky. Mid March maybe lol.

Man, ya totally faked me out with that...and then ya pull the rug out with your next sentence. Cruelty...lol 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Hard to post a single panel becuase of timing differences but this is half decent right here. A number of similar solutions with us being on the cold side. Not worried about ptype differences because odds favor a snow event with cold over the top and a wave running to the south. 

From what you guys are saying....I'm wondering if this is gonna be our last shot? If so...hug E9 or E19, lol

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From what you guys are saying....I'm wondering if this is gonna be our last shot? If so...hug E9 or E19, lol

Nobody knows whats going to happen over the next 5 weeks or so. If we get a -nao going then it's a lot better than a positive one. But as with any single feature or teleconnection, others things can help and hurt. There isn't a single path to victory. It's always a combination of multiple things. More often than not it's a combination of strange things and not some perfect setup. There are countless past snow events that look like crap on paper. 

Even if we have a se ridge d10-15, nobody can say with any credibility that it's permanent. It's been an uphill battle all year. I doubt that changes. But calling off winter on Feb 11th becuase a 15 day prog doesn't look good is premature to say the least. 

Next weekend is our only opportunity within a reasonable time frame. Can't put a fork in it for a few days. 

[cae]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From what you guys are saying....I'm wondering if this is gonna be our last shot?

Sure, it could be our last shot.  But not likely.  Most of February is looking bad but it's only Feb. 11th.  Realistically we have about another month left where we can get snow, and the models just can't reliably see out that far.  When it comes to what will happen in March, the angle of the sun is pretty much the only thing we can have confidence in. 

One potentially positive note is that the CFS weeklies are showing that the pattern is still shifting.  By the first week of March, they have us (and much of the country) in a cold pattern.  Dry too, but in March especially we need the cold first.  Then we can hope to get lucky with some well-timed precip.

[dallen7908]

If you believe the 12 UT Euro, three options for snow-lovers during the next two weeks. 

1) Get in your car; drive to Montreal; get out powerful binoculars and look to your northeast; that's the only place  in eastern North America where the Euro puts down >6" of snow over the next 15 days. 

2) Head to western MD next Friday evening, the 2-4" that could fall might be the most in the eastern US during the next 15 days. 

3) Friends in southeast VA?; visit them early Saturday and you may see snow TV.

 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Nobody knows whats going to happen over the next 5 weeks or so. If we get a -nao going then it's a lot better than a positive one. But as with any single feature or teleconnection, others things can help and hurt. There isn't a single path to victory. It's always a combination of multiple things. More often than not it's a combination of strange things and not some perfect setup. There are countless past snow events that look like crap on paper. 

Even if we have a se ridge d10-15, nobody can say with any credibility that it's permanent. It's been an uphill battle all year. I doubt that changes. But calling off winter on Feb 11th becuase a 15 day prog doesn't look good is premature to say the least. 

Next weekend is our only opportunity within a reasonable time frame. Can't put a fork in it for a few days. 

As always, I appreciate your level-headed analysis, Bob! (I shudder to think what this forum would look like without you and PSU, lol) Even though I've only been following this forum since around 2014, thanks to you guys' commentary, I'm starting to see just how much goes into how we get snow around here (and why we need to greatly appreciate it when it comes). So many factors (But I suppose at least if there's at least a few factors that COULD go right...ya can't right things off completely!)

[cae]

About 1/3 of GEPS members give mby more than 1" next weekend.  Not great, but better than 00z.  GEFS rediscovered next weekend's potential storm after nearly completely losing it at 00z.  About 1/4 of EPS members give someone in our region more than 1/2" next weekend.

So not a great look on the 12z ensembles, but better than 00z.

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

If you believe the 12 UT Euro, three options for snow-lovers during the next two weeks. 

1) Get in your car; drive to Montreal; get out powerful binoculars and look to your northeast; that's the only place  in eastern North America where the Euro puts down >6" of snow over the next 15 days. 

2) Head to western MD next Friday evening, the 2-4" that could fall might be the most in the eastern US during the next 15 days. 

3) Friends in southeast VA?; visit them early Saturday and you may see snow TV.

 

 

 

I still haven't made my winter trek to Canaan. Been waiting for it to get 'good" there. lol. Hasn't worked out. I have 2 more weeks where my work schedule will allow me to escape for a few days. Sadly, I am actually considering late this week.

[Ji]

the 18z gfs is a disaster for next weekend. Any gains we made at 12z we lost double at 18z

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

the 18z gfs is a disaster for next weekend. Any gains we made at 12z we lost double at 18z

Did you expect anything other wise.  Everything storm becomes Northern Dominated.  That most always ends bad for us.

[Maestrobjwa]

Oh those middle-of-the country HPs...lol Now I see why La Niña snow totals typically look the way they do (except for 2014 &15) @Bob Chill and @psuhoffman I know you've probably covered this more than a few times, but what did you say the key(s) are to scoring in a La Niña again? I'm sure perfect timing is one way....(please refer me back to a previous post if you don't feel like explaining again, lol)

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh those middle-of-the country HPs...lol Now I see why La Niña snow totals typically look the way they do (except for 2014 &15) @Bob Chill and @psuhoffman I know you've probably covered this more than a few times, but what did you say the key(s) are to scoring in a La Niña again? I'm sure perfect timing is one way....(please refer me back to a previous post if you don't feel like explaining again, lol)

BLOCKING!!!!! Need to slow and buckle the flow down. That's why we were hammering on a -NAO and AO during the fall.

[Wonderdog]

The 18z op run wasn't much different than 12z. I bet the 18z GEFS are better.

[showmethesnow]

18Z was the first run that actually ejects most of the energy out of the southwest leading into next weekend. Would not be surprised if we start seeing a different solution/setup in future runs for the weekend if in fact the energy does eject as shown.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

BLOCKING!!!!! Need to slow and buckle the flow down. That's why we were hammering on a -NAO and AO during the fall.

Yes, I have gotten the fact that we need all negatives around here, lol (although, partially due to my inexperience I'm not clear on what that looks like in models. I know it's been posted but I probably didn't know what I was looking at!)

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh those middle-of-the country HPs...lol Now I see why La Niña snow totals typically look the way they do (except for 2014 &15) @Bob Chill and @psuhoffman I know you've probably covered this more than a few times, but what did you say the key(s) are to scoring in a La Niña again? I'm sure perfect timing is one way....(please refer me back to a previous post if you don't feel like explaining again, lol)

2014 was cold neutral and 2015 was warm neutral. Neither was a Nina. 

We need nao blocking.  Every warning level snow in the last 20 La Niña years was helped by nao blocking. Without blocking the best we get are nickel and dime stuff from fast moving weak systems when it's cold. As showme said have to buckle the NS in a Nina to have a chance at a legit snow here. We've had a straight nao fail all winter so this was predictable. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Check out the 12z GEFS at d15. Really nice look in the NA.. that will probably go to waste. The PV is too far NW, it efs with the E/NPAC, and we end up with more troughing in the west and the continuation of the SE ridge. Nina look all the way, and all the "historic" SSW event is likely to do is reinforce it. Eh, who knows, if the NAO can stay negative long enough, maybe we can get lucky. Mid March maybe lol.

We need the blocking to be centered southeast of where it is and to be more dominant than the lower heights near Alaska. That combo works. What the gefs shows now doesn't. But the epo is unlikely to help. Getting an epo ridge with an nao ridge is very rare and unlikely. We can do fine with a neutral or slightly positive epo. But if the nao is less then ideal and the Pacific is god awful then no. It's a matter of degrees. We need the positive factors to out weight the negative ones. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

The 18z op run wasn't much different than 12z. I bet the 18z GEFS are better.

Nope 18z gefs totally lost any signal for that threat. 

12z

18z

 

 

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We need the blocking to be centered southeast of where it is and to be more dominant than the lower heights near Alaska. That combo works. What the gefs shows now doesn't. But the epo is unlikely to help. Getting an epo ridge with an nao ridge is very rare and unlikely. We can do fine with a neutral or slightly positive epo. But if the nao is less then ideal and the Pacific is god awful then no. It's a matter of degrees. We need the positive factors to out weight the negative ones. 

Yeah and I still think the first 2 weeks in March is going to be our window if there is to be one. The -NAO, if it does develop as modeled, should be in a better spot. At day 15 it seems to be building further south towards Baffin/Davis Strait. Just need to get some minor adjustment in the EPAC, and squash the SE ridge for a time. 

[CAPE]

Speaking of a nice -NAO in a perfect spot, the latest CFS (weeklies) still looks pretty sweet for weeks 3 and 4. Here is week 4. If this is close to correct, we will have one last shot.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah and I still think the first 2 weeks in March is going to be our window if there is to be one. The -NAO, if it does develop as modeled, should be in a better spot. At day 15 it seems to be building further south towards Baffin/Davis Strait. Just need to get some minor adjustment in the EPAC, and squash the SE ridge for a time. 

I meant southwest not southeast but yea. And I agree from day 16 things could evolve towards a better look. Maybe even should. But time is running out and I'm in wait and see. If it's going to we need signs soon. 

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Speaking of a nice -NAO in a perfect spot, the latest CFS (weeklies) still looks pretty sweet for weeks 3 and 4. Here is week 4. If this is close to correct, we will have one last shot.

Holy crap that's nice. But the cfs is badly messing up the mjo right now so I'm taking it with a grain of salt. 

[stormtracker]

Been drankin a little so imma speak freely....it's a disaster for at least the next 10 days.  That brings us to what, early March?  Can't rule out March, but we are screwed for the meat of winter.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Been drankin a little so imma speak freely....it's a disaster for at least the next 10 days.  That brings us to what, early March?  Can't rule out March, but we are screwed for the meat of winter.

its been a disaster since the Jan 2016 blizzard. Worst 2 year stretch since the last worst 2 year stretch

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Been drankin a little so imma speak freely....it's a disaster for at least the next 10 days.  That brings us to what, early March?  Can't rule out March, but we are screwed for the meat of winter.

Feb is toast. So yeah we are left with a March hail mary. Its more of a long shot considering where the pattern is headed over the next 10 days, and the fact that we are in a Nina. But at least there is some hope...CFS!!

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

its been a disaster since the Jan 2016 blizzard. Worst 2 year stretch since the last worst 2 year stretch

It's been pretty bad for sure.  I just don't even care anymore and it's not reverse psychology  I honestly just don't care at this point.  Going away this weekend and coming back Tuesday.  Give me 70 and I'm ok.  No need for misery and rain and 33 degrees.  At this point, I'm not sure anything short of the blizzard of '93 will salvage this winter.

[stormtracker]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Feb is toast. So yeah we are left with a March hail mary. Its more of a long shot considering where the pattern is headed over the next 10 days, and the fact that we are in a Nina. But at least there is some hope...CFS!!

It is what it is.  I'm older now, so I'm much less emotional about it all.  I'm ok if we get skunked.  There's always next winter.  If we're not going to get snow, it's time to root for mild and dry at this point.