Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Alot of focus on the gfs op and the gefs this morning with little mention of the eps which, again, throws us a signal for something around March 3. Some key differences between those 2 ens families irt to the retrogression of the block and the wonky WSW movement of the 50/50 on the gefs. EPS is more of a stable look imo which would allow for several *chances* thru mid March whereas the GEFS has alot of eggs in one or two baskets so to speak. GEPS imo is somewhere in the middle but is clearly aligned more with the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Go back and look at PSU's post last night with h5 looks for dif storms in March. (Great post btw) Only two have some ridging in the west....and its pretty weak at that. Compare those looks to the eps from last night. I'm not sure a big PNA ridge is what we want....at least history says it's not the deciding factor with good March storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 The one thing that most of the March blocking wins had in common was ridging west or southwest of Alaska in the WPO domain. We seem to have that this time too. Most of the total fail blocks had troughs there. I've done no deeper study or readings into it it's just what sticks out when looking at all the analogs that are essentially similar over the Atlantic and N Am and trying to say "so where is the difference" and it's the only thing that stuck out with any consistency. Could be a coincidence though. Thought it was worth noting and see what others think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The one thing that most of the March blocking wins had in common was ridging west or southwest of Alaska in the WPO domain. We seem to have that this time too. Most of the total fail blocks had troughs there. I've done no deeper study or readings into it it's just what sticks out when looking at all the analogs that are essentially similar over the Atlantic and N Am and trying to say "so where is the difference" and it's the only thing that stuck out with any consistency. Could be a coincidence though. Thought it was worth noting and see what others think. It's logical. An AK trough or vortex is typically a maritime air pump into Canada so the blocking is only displacing pac maritime air. Having the AK ridge allows more continental air to build in our source region. Not uber arctic stuff. Just more typical cold continental air. If you ran the temp anomalies between the 2 sets my guess is the AK trough would show a lot of AN temps in NA and vice versa. Just a guess without looking at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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