mappy Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So something on the Euro changed? no clue. just posting his aleet. i haven't looked at any models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 welp my pluot tree think its spring. always first to bloom and first to lose every single blossom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So something on the Euro changed? He seems to indicate that the western ridge position in the LR is now more favorable, and there was no hint of that on any guidance until last night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: He seems to indicate that the western ridge position in the LR is now more favorable, and there was no hint of that on any guidance until last night lol. Oh yeah, NO hint. I mean look at that map in Ian's tweet. Big storms don't usually have some honking PNA or EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Oh yeah, NO hint. I mean look at that map in Ian's tweet. Big storms don't usually have some honking PNA or EPO ridge. Well the GEFS was retrograding the long wave pattern before the EPS, so he wouldn't have noticed(or acknowledged it) until very recently lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 27 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Not buying the awesome massive block, patterns don't break like this when the Hemisphere is so rigid. It's feedback from the +NAO left of some medium, can you believe it? I can believe the feedback from the +NAO left some medium especially with the Hemisphere being so rigid assuming the pattern breaks which it probably wont because of the rigidity which seem suspect considering the awesome massive block being advertised. But what I am buying is the awesome massive block because I don't think the Hemisphere is that rigid. There is probably no medium left behind by the +NAO but that is just a guess on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Euro manages to ram a west track into retreating cold and snows on us d9-10. The interesting thing is that it did it with a west track. If blocking gets going earlier then it could end up an underneath track. Either way, I'll hug the run for now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro manages to ram a west track into retreating cold and snows on us d9-10. The interesting thing is that it did it with a west track. If blocking gets going earlier then it could end up an underneath track. Either way, I'll hug the run for now. lol Yeah I think this could actually improve in future runs. I would have to go back and look but I think it had something cooking towards day 10 at 0z but it cut way up into Wisconsin. So it is already responding to the developing block it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro manages to ram a west track into retreating cold and snows on us d9-10. The interesting thing is that it did it with a west track. If blocking gets going earlier then it could end up an underneath track. Either way, I'll hug the run for now. lol Just checked the snow map for giggles - Goes from just under 1" of snow at DCA at hr 234 to 6" of snow around DCA at hr 240 on the 10:1 maps... I can see why Bob is hugging the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 3 hours ago, frd said: Hmm, this is a bit confusing. No one ever said extreme cold, but it seems like he is blowing off any potential during March 46 day forecast? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I think this could actually improve in future runs. I would have to go back and look but I think it had something cooking towards day 10 at 0z but it cut way up into Wisconsin. So it is already responding to the developing block it seems. Pretty much in shotgun mode. Basically a "brand new" idea. We can easily get west tracks with a block so it's not far fetched. However, unlike previous west tracks this one actually has a HP anchored and not retreating. It's not a very cold or strong hp either. The run is just a testament to how progressions might behave going forward. Tune in @ 0z for a brand new idea. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Heh, control and 10 other members support the idea that the op had. I guess it officially a "signal" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, control and 10 other members support the idea that the op had. I guess it officially a "signal" now. since we are big time blocked and no more progressive flow and timing/issues...maybe this wont disappear so easily as the other storms we track haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 the EPS mean snow ticked us about into the blue color. Thought it would be purple but okay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 3 hours ago, cae said: With the discussion recently about temps and March snow, I was curious as to what the historical relationship is. The below plot shows Jan-Feb-March temps vs. snowfall for Baltimore for all years since 1884. The vertical lines show the average temps for each month over all years. (In case you're curious, the month with 50" was February 2010.) The first thing that comes to mind is that there's clearly a relationship between temps and snow. In March months when we had above-average temps, Baltimore got an average of 1.9" of snow. When we had below-average temps, Baltimore got an average of 6.2". We've never had snow in a March with average temps above 50, and we've always had snow in years when average March temps were below 39.8 (4 degrees below the long-term average). But there's also a lot of spread. 1942 stands out as a month in which the temps were more than 3 degrees above average but we still got 22" of snow. The other thing I noticed is that given a February and March with the same average monthly temperature, we'll probably get more snow in March. It's better to be in the upper 30s in March than in February. Of course usual caveats apply. This is all broad brush analysis, and the particulars of every year are different. I don't see a citation. Did you do the plot? If so thanks for the work. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 42 minutes ago, Ji said: since we are big time blocked and no more progressive flow and timing/issues...maybe this wont disappear so easily as the other storms we track haha That’s a fair point Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 What a sweet animation by John recently, over the past week and days this is getting better and better in my opinion. The amazing Pac retro is awesome to look at here, I believe HM alluded to this yesterday and has been for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, wkd said: I don't see a citation. Did you do the plot? If so thanks for the work. Very interesting. I did put it together, thanks. It probably looks like more work than it was. I just pulled data from here and put it into Excel. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, frd said: What a sweet animation by John recently, over the past week and days this is getting better and better in my opinion. The amazing Pac retro is awesome to look at here, I believe HM alluded to this yesterday and has been for days. All the caveats apply...but man that is just beautiful/textbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, poolz1 said: All the caveats apply...but man that is just beautiful/textbook I honestly forgot what a legit NAO block looked like. Its been that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 4 hours ago, mappy said: DT aleet Welcome to the conversation we've been having for a week. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Massive blocking situation setting up over Europe and most of the Atlantic basin, March could take on some of the characteristics of Feb 2010 but with the different look of the Pacific might be a case of take one storm and run. This is my probability forecast for further snowfall in the region: zero to 3" only __ 20% 3" to 8" ____ 30% 8" to 15" ___ 30% 15" to 22" __ 19% 22" or more __ 1% This makes 8" the over-under forecast (would verify at IAD-BWI mean, DCA implied 5" RIC implied 3", best local implied 12") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2 hours ago, poolz1 said: All the caveats apply...but man that is just beautiful/textbook Awesome to see a legit NA block just overpower the pattern(modeled of course). As PSU has stated, a -NAO is even more vital for snow chances here in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Too bad happy hour gfs didn't go to day 20 to show our march 10 HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 @psuhoffman GFS looked to be setting up something big shortly there after. As you and Bob have described in great detail the pattern looks ripe for a big storm. I have a feeling there's no in between for us. Either we are heading into spring in glory or frustrated as all get out...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Awesome to see a legit NA block just overpower the pattern(modeled of course). As PSU has stated, a -NAO is even more vital for snow chances here in a Nina. At least spring is right around the corner if this pattern fails us. It's not like we have two more months of snowless winter ahead of us... My preference is for a stalled bomb to burry this entire subforum...and thats what im pulling for. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Pretty impressive mean 850's on the EPS d10-15. 0c line all the way down in SC @ d15. With the mean h5/850 panels it looks like we would most likely be snow and not rain with any precip that falls after March 3rd. Mean surface temps are in the mid 40's d11-15. That's an impressive mean for long leads in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: At least spring is right around the corner if this pattern fails us. It's not like we have two more months of snowless winter ahead of us... My preference is for a stalled bomb to burry this entire subforum...and thats what im pulling for. lol We haven't had a look like this since 09/10 - 10/11. The -AO and bootleg -NAO is what drove the Jan 16 blizzard. Unless models are totally trippin, it's going to be the best -NAO in many years. Just wait until a week or so down the line. EPS/GEFS are going to have some wild solutions once the pattern is in full range and not hanging out d9+ like it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We haven't had a look like this since 09/10 - 10/11. The -AO and bootleg -NAO is what drove the Jan 16 blizzard. Just wait until a week or so down the line. EPS/GEFS are going to have some wild solutions once the pattern is in full range and not hanging out d9+ like it is now. Didn't 10/11 fail us? I know NE got hammered but nothing notable sticks out in my mind around here. But, thats not really saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We haven't had a look like this since 09/10 - 10/11. The -AO and bootleg -NAO is what drove the Jan 16 blizzard. Unless models are totally trippin, it's going to be the best -NAO in many years. Just wait until a week or so down the line. EPS/GEFS are going to have some wild solutions once the pattern is in full range and not hanging out d9+ like it is now. Ash Weds odds ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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