Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: You 100% correct, his initial comment at face value isn't true. Everything you say is also true in the above. Heck I remember as a kid (I think it was 1997) we got snow that stuck in April. And I get tracking long range, I really do, I just think there are times when you guys don't stress the odds of certain outcomes. You don't stress the "what could go wrong"enough and you seem to bite the heads off of the people who come in with the "what could go wrong". I think some walk away with a higher expectation of a certain outcome based on what is said here than what is really the probability of that outcome. Thats all. Not to stir the pot, but I have lurked on this thread for years and only recently started posting.. I have always felt like there is an even amount of "what could go right" and "what could go wrong". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 26 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: You 100% correct, his initial comment at face value isn't true. Everything you say is also true in the above. Heck I remember as a kid (I think it was 1997) we got snow that stuck in April. And I get tracking long range, I really do, I just think there are times when you guys don't stress the odds of certain outcomes. You don't stress the "what could go wrong"enough and you seem to bite the heads off of the people who come in with the "what could go wrong". I think some walk away with a higher expectation of a certain outcome based on what is said here than what is really the probability of that outcome. Thats all. Lots can go wrong. Too much blocking with a 50/50 too far south and things could get suppressed. Even with blocking something could over amp and cut too much for our purposes. We are too far south to think we're ever not vulnerable to rain in any pattern. Our biggest threat to a fail imo is if things just stay out of sync and northern vorts slide by and bomb off the coast and stj systems get suppressed. I think what your saying is due to perception bias I myself have said thinks like "it is very low probability but this is how maybe we could get some snow" then I discuss the prospect and then when the pattern fails there are posts to the effect of "see we told you it wouldn't snow" or "why did you get hopes up". Just last week I started a post with "I am not being hostile just want to bring up a contrary point to discuss" and got a reply "why you attacking me". People hear what they want. Bob includes disclaimers all the time. And when it looks bad we say so. I post "how it can fail" posts all the time. But I've noticed the optimists that only want happy thoughts only see my deb posts and the debs that get annoyed for some stupid reason by anyone being optimistic only see my hopeful posts. Anyone is free to inject their opinion and hopefully more often fact based objective analysis. But if that opinion is nonsense that was literally just dispelled a few posts earlier then I don't feel bad if they meet some bit of pushback. For a long time myself and others held back. Didn't really push back. Let the same crap be posted then derail the thread over and over. We're not chasing anyone. But i am pushing back now if someone wants to come in here and take a dump with the same regurgitated nonsense that has been disproven with facts and evidence over and over again. They are welcome to then push back at me and defend their stance. I'm not above reproach. But neither is anyone else if they want to toss around BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 30 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Not to stir the pot, but I have lurked on this thread for years and only recently started posting.. I have always felt like there is an even amount of "what could go right" and "what could go wrong". Every single discrete event is gone over in detail on what could go wrong. Long range discussion is about what can go right because any person with a lick of intelligence knows what can go wrong....it won't snow for any number of reasons. Duh. I don't even know what the point of decoy's post is. Nobody ever claims that anything in the long range is high probability or a lock or anything of the sort. I think decoy needs to create a new weather forum that focuses solely on it not snowing because that's all he seems to care about and wants to post about. The really weird thing is that if there was such a forum he would post about why he thinks it IS going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Weeklies hold the blocking pattern for a solid 2 weeks then break things down around march 15-20. That's fine since that's about when our climo expires anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 7 hours ago, Subtropics said: Problem with March is the sun angle. Even a strong storm is going to have issues sticking on the streets during the day time, especially with the upcoming torch. Subtropics, the reasons people disagree with this post are: 1) The upcoming torch over the next week or so will be gone by March. 2) You're right that surfaces, asphalt roads in particular, will be warmer in March in the daytime due to sun angle. But in a strong storm the solar radiation will be partially blocked by the clouds, and snow will come down at rates that are fast enough to overcome the remaining solar heating. Once the first layer of snow accumulates on the surface, about 80% of the solar radiation will be reflected by the snow, limiting further warming of the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Ok fair enough. I’ll shut up. Honestly on stickage I ve found no rhyme or reason to it sometimes. When you think it should stick it doesn’t when you think it shouldn’t it does. I guess it’s a lot of factors. But this past weekend even with the temp at 32 and it being 5pm and great rates the streets were struggling to cave where I live. So what was said about that being a concern in March..... it’s a very valid one. I think that is what the poster might have been saying? Of course snow can absolutly stick in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Ok fair enough. I’ll shut up. Congrats on your first good post here. Way to go. Took years, but you’ve finally done it brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS weeklies say game on through at least mid March. I really hope so man. Would be nice to throw a couple of nice events together. No doubt signs are starting to look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 jesus christ its jason bourne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: jesus christ its jason bourne. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 From the SNE forum... thought this was a good look for us: 2 hours ago, CT Rain said: Well this could be interesting. Pretty mega blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh? Historic blocks will do funny things to people.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 You get rates, snow will stick, roads will cave. It's gonna happen all over the subforum. Many will be amazed. It will seem like January to many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Just now, Jebman said: You get rates, snow will stick, roads will cave. It's gonna happen all over the subforum. Many will be amazed. It will seem like January to many. Hopefully not like this January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 It will be like a perfectly cold, snowy January for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 57 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Historic blocks will do funny things to people.... Sweet mercy!!! If this is still modeled by the end of the week...wow. Could get interesting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 What a sweet look. Might have to save this one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: What a sweet look. Might have to save this one lol. If someone doesn't like that look for March, they should move to FL or AZ. That's a great signal for the east coast. Wish the PAC was a little nicer, but beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 lol @ the New England subforum worrying about suppression in this upcoming pattern. We just gotta hope their fears come to fruition (sorry New England forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: If someone doesn't like that look for March, they should move to FL or AZ. That's a great signal for the east coast. Wish the PAC was a little nicer, but beggars can't be choosers. Yeah I nitpick too. But it is what it is. Given its a Nina winter, we aren't likely to get "perfection". That block is a bully though. Retros the pattern and gets the PAC look at least serviceable. Just imagine what that panel looks like with a neutral or +NAO. Lets just hope the NAO does verify something close to -3 SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, Cobalt said: lol @ the New England subforum worrying about suppression in this upcoming pattern. We just gotta hope their fears come to fruition (sorry New England forum) At some point it may be a concern here. GEFS has been hinting at events for the Carolinas that would likely miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I nitpick too. But it is what it is. Given its a Nina winter, we aren't likely to get "perfection". That block is a bully though. Retros the pattern and gets the PAC look at least serviceable. Just imagine what that panel looks like with a neutral or +NAO. Lets just hope the NAO does verify something close to -3 SD. I'm crossing my fingers on that one. So far, tough not to like the trends going forward. The second week of March is looking like the breaking point for here. I hope it verifies, but still a long ways to go. Until then, I'm just going to enjoy the nice weather. I'll be in FL tomorrow around Lauderdale and the Keys, so I'm taking a little hiatus from winter and the forums for a few days. Hopefully when I come back, rumors of storms and the block will still be abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: At some point it may be a concern here. GEFS has been hinting at events for the Carolinas that would likely miss us. Course, but it's certainly better than wanting suppression, especially with the unconventional storm track that the GFS keeps throwing at us. Is it just all on how strong the -NAO is? IIRC, the NAO has been teased at being negative (especially in late Dec), but has been positive. Especially since the GEFS is basically showing that the NAO will be off the charts negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Historic blocks will do funny things to people....Too much of a good thing isnt what we want. Careful what you wish for. Archambault is when we score at our latitude, likely not during the blocking peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 What a sweet look. Might have to save this one lol.This is a much cleaner look/setup than some of the epic block maps that are being posted. Its when that block weakens and relaxes that we potentially score. Sure, a suppressed ots southern slider whatever type look gives 'wiggle room' and is better than a consistent cutter look but that also shows how we arent likely to score until March 4-10+ and not during the extreme -SD blocking appearance. Just my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 lol @ the New England subforum worrying about suppression in this upcoming pattern. We just gotta hope their fears come to fruition (sorry New England forum)They are right in the shorter long range (does that make sense? Lol). But this is a setup where we can all score potentially from subsequent events as the block weakens ie Storm 1 Southeast, Storm 2 mid atl/phl, Storm 3 nyc/ne sorta thing. Dont take that verbatim that there will be 3 events just saying there is a chance we all get an opportunity here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: What a sweet look. Might have to save this one lol. This is a much cleaner look/setup than some of the epic block maps that are being posted. Its when that block weakens and relaxes that we potentially score. Sure, a suppressed ots southern slider whatever type look gives 'wiggle room' and is better than a consistent cutter look but that also shows how we arent likely to score until March 4-10+ and not during the extreme -SD blocking appearance. Just my $.02 0z EPS looks almost identical at h5 for around the 7th, with a slightly stronger western ridge. Nice to see the top 2 globals in alignment at this range with the eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 @psuhoffmanthe EPS snowfall map is still as bad as Ive seen this winter and now its taking us to March 7th. First week of march is a disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Ensemble snowfall maps are pretty useless at 10 day leads, especially with a major pattern change ongoing. Not sure why some people pay so much attention to them. And yes, realistically we are probably looking at around the 3rd for a legit threat. Could be sooner, but expecting it is probably going to result in disappointment. This is going to be a slow process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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