February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Euro control throws out an appetizer for next Tuesday..A few inches north of i70. 

pics please, im a visual learner

[JB Fins]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the dumb angle has been a far bigger problem around here lately than the sun angle 

That angle is always so obtuse.  Hey oh!

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

pics please, im a visual learner

It's convoluted and not a way that really works around here. There's a northern stream shortwave that tracks through SW PA and it joins forces with an inverted trough type of alignment with a low off the coast. There's not much cold to work with, surface temps are above freezing, no strong HP to the north, return flow will draw warmth at the surface and midlevels as it approaches, and a really bad track for snowfall here. The short story is don't get any hopes up. lol

 

[Bob Chill]

EPS starting to light up a little d10-15 with some nice stuff. Not as scattered and isolated as previous runs but way far from any type of signal. Heading in the right direction for sure though. 

[pasnownut]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the dumb angle has been a far bigger problem around here lately than the sun angle 

LMAO..

PSU did a nice little weatherweenie 101 this morning.

I say you should do one this afternoon....call it a "prerequisit to posting" guide.   

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the dumb angle has been a far bigger problem around here lately than the sun angle 

 

44 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

That angle is always so obtuse.  Hey oh!

Ninja'd!  I was just going to say that it's definitely a reflection of rather obtuse views!  (I'm reminded of the line in "Shawshank Redemption" where the warden tells Andy..."Am I making myself clear?  Are you catching my drift?  Or am I being...obtuse?  Give him another month to think about it!").  I'm acutely aware of terrible puns!

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Subtropics said:

Problem with March is the sun angle. Even a strong storm is going to have issues sticking on the streets during the day time, especially with the upcoming torch.

[Amped]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

I would have sent him a middle finger. No point in asking to see a 1-3" 240hr snow map.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Subtropics said:

Tool? Lol let's not throw insults around on the forum. It's a fact sun angle is rising, and that's not a benefit to snow stickage. 

If you don't want to be called a tool stop acting like a tool. We've had a ton of March snow and ice recently and yet every year we have to deal with this nonsense. 

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS starting to light up a little d10-15 with some nice stuff. Not as scattered and isolated as previous runs but way far from any type of signal. Heading in the right direction for sure though. 

Looks like the beginning of this pattern may be showing it's hand on the eps.  The couple of decent hit in there look sorta like the control....we have also seen this on the gfs op runs.  A NW to SE diving low that bombs off the east coast.... I'll take it but those tracks come with too much nail biting.  Maybe as the trough off the east coast continues to retro we can get a more traditional storm track...

 

[Amped]

Every now and then we luck out in the NW-SE flow. March 1999 and Feb2010.  

Other times not so lucky, like March 2013 and March 2006. When the 50/50 low is to far south it becomes hard to get a good jet entrance region over our area.

[RevWarReenactor]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you don't want to be called a tool stop acting like a tool. We've had a ton of March snow and ice recently and yet every year we have to deal with this nonsense. 

It's true we have.

But its not nonsense to question certain "march" factors that COULD go against us  even in good setups. Because while we've had good storms in March, we've also had good setups (snowquester) that would have worked in Feb, but didn't work, because it was March.

It is part of the equation for sure.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

70s Tues/Wed and then Nam gives some trace frozen Thurs with 30s . Lol

 

Yeah, this is pretty cool. This kind of storm trends colder,snowier. Warm Stratosphere...................

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

It's true we have.

But its not nonsense to question certain "march" factors that COULD go against us  even in good setups. Because while we've had good storms in March, we've also had good setups (snowquester) that would have worked in Feb, but didn't work, because it was March.

It is part of the equation for sure.

It is nonsense because everyone here is well aware of these "factors" to which you continually refer. This crap is brought up and discussed ad nauseam year after year, despite the fact that it is obvious and taken into consideration. Why not tell us breathing is required in order to stay alive? I think we probably get that too.

[87storms]

the march superstorm had disastrous temps the day before.  it was legitimately mild with temps in the mid 40s and i remember waking up early in the morning and seeing a light rain/mix.  then i woke up a few hours later to about 6" and everything snow covered, streets, etc.  snow can stick even in april here if the rates are legit.

also, i want another snowstorm.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

70s Tues/Wed and then Nam gives some trace frozen Thurs with 30s . Lol

 

That's because I have to work long hours Tuesday and Wednesday then Thursday I could get out and enjoy the weather so it will be 35 with snizzle. 

[pasnownut]

33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It is nonsense because everyone here is well aware of these "factors" to which you continually refer. This crap is brought up and discussed ad nauseam year after year, despite the fact that it is obvious and taken into consideration. Why not tell us breathing is required in order to stay alive? I think we probably get that too.

Some will stop at nothing to say see I told you so. Debbie’s gonna Debbie. Just not sure how trolling quality discussions helps to point out ANYTHING that most here already know.

Some need reminded that it’s a discussion forum. It would be nice to move beyond this silly clutter. 

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

It's true we have.

But its not nonsense to question certain "march" factors that COULD go against us  even in good setups. Because while we've had good storms in March, we've also had good setups (snowquester) that would have worked in Feb, but didn't work, because it was March.

It is part of the equation for sure.

Your defending things he didn't say. Yes a marginal setup is likely to break the wrong way. And we all know that. But he said "even a strong storm". That's the part that makes it nonsense.  

Then to make it worse he even said "especially with the upcoming torch" when just 20 posts ago or so I pointed out that Baltimore got 8" of snow in March 76 a few days after it was 80 degrees and on a day that had a high in the 40s.   If that doesn't prove that high temps one day has absolutely nothing to do with snow prospects later on then I don't know what to tell you. This myth has been dispelled time and time again by facts. Historical evidence. 

1.  It has snowed a lot in march. 

2. It snows with marginal temps in march a lot. 

3. When it snows hard enough it will overcome marginal temps and sun angle. 

Those 3 things are proven facts yet we have to entertain this every time there is a snow threat after Feb 10th every year. 

Sorry but after repeated evidence to the contrary anyone still spitting that out is being a tool. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Looking over medium term models and 18z gfs ensembles, it's unlikely the big -NAO surrounded by cutoff vortexes will occur. This is not the pattern

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Looking over medium term models and 18z gfs ensembles, it's unlikely the big -NAO surrounded by cutoff vortexes will occur. This is not the pattern

Ok. Thanks for the heads up. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I'm usually right, about 65%. When it gets to be 75%, things change

[poolz1]

Gefs  look like they are getting more active in the 10-15.  Some nice looks in there...starting to see more southern systems show up as well.

Cherry-picked hour....

[Wxdood]

10 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

There is a different variable on Earth right now, 17-18, that differs from analogs past. I think he's making a climo based forecast. The closest way to explain is maybe cross-polar ridge dynamics dont trend into this

Explain the different variable. Get that climate change out of here, this is a long range thread discussing weather, not climate change. 

 

I know I don't post much but all that does is muck stuff up

[Wxdood]

9 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The snowstorm underperforming a few days ago was really a damper on potential 

I gotta disagree, in my mind it over performed for areas it said it was barely going to do anything. We got close to 3 inches here in g burg when it was saying like half an inch. Over performer. Do you just try to make open ended posts or what. I'm not even a met or someone who does this very often, used to be more into looking at models than now, but your dialogue adds nothing of interest or anything positive. 

[Cobalt]

A lot of southern storms showing up on the GEFS. Probably really good news if we want a good hit from this pattern. This is a start

[CAPE]

EPS weeklies say game on through at least mid March.

[Interstate]

25 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

A lot of southern storms showing up on the GEFS. Probably really good news if we want a good hit from this pattern. This is a start

e10 would be our luck this winter

[Scraff]

After legitimately trying to catch up in here, apparently I’m a few universes short of six pack!  

 

Anyway...I like where we are headed. March will rock hard.  I’m feeling it. Maybe I’m drinking too much Jebjuice, but I think a shellacking is on the way. 

[PCT_ATC]

6 minutes ago, Scraff said:

After legitimately trying to catch in here, apparently I’m a few universes short of six pack!  

 

Anyway...I like where we are headed. March will rock hard.  I’m feeling it. Maybe I’m drinking too much Jebjuice, but I think a shellacking is on the way. 

TOUCHE!

 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Your defending things he didn't say. Yes a marginal setup is likely to break the wrong way. And we all know that. But he said "even a strong storm". That's the part that makes it nonsense.  

Then to make it worse he even said "especially with the upcoming torch" when just 20 posts ago or so I pointed out that Baltimore got 8" of snow in March 76 a few days after it was 80 degrees and on a day that had a high in the 40s.   If that doesn't prove that high temps one day has absolutely nothing to do with snow prospects later on then I don't know what to tell you. This myth has been dispelled time and time again by facts. Historical evidence. 

1.  It has snowed a lot in march. 

2. It snows with marginal temps in march a lot. 

3. When it snows hard enough it will overcome marginal temps and sun angle. 

Those 3 things are proven facts yet we have to entertain this every time there is a snow threat after Feb 10th every year. 

Sorry but after repeated evidence to the contrary anyone still spitting that out is being a tool. 

You 100% correct, his initial comment at face value isn't true.

Everything you say is also true in the above. Heck I remember as a kid (I think it was 1997) we got snow that stuck in April.

And I get tracking long range, I really do, I just think there are times when you guys don't stress the odds of certain outcomes. You don't stress the "what could go wrong"enough and you seem to bite the heads off of the people who come in with the "what could go wrong". I think some walk away with a higher expectation of a certain outcome based on what is said here than what is really the probability of that outcome. Thats all.