psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Tenman Johnson said: This is all nice discussion but what does it mean down here on the surface OR what is your prediction?? There seems to be zero historical analog efforts of comparison and to this observer it's a lot of quoted posts of people who never post here with non discussion of what it means for where we All live, on the surface This is a DISCUSSION thread. Yes this is an open discussion and speculation. Not a forecast. Sometimes myself and others do throw a forecast in there but most of it is discussion. And the posts giving additional opinions from some leading experts is valuable to the discussion. And we have discussed what the possible effects could be at length. A true SSW will disrupt the PV and that will probably lead to anomalous cold somewhere. But where is an open question. We're mostly in a wait and see here. I think people have been really responsible about that fact and that we don't know how this plays out. I have also seen some analogs thrown around. Problem is some ended well and some didn't. It's hard to know how this will play out. No one has predicted snow. We're just talking about the pattern. If you want more analog talk then why not start it. Offer some analogs. If you want more forecasts make one. I left an open invitation in banter the other day to all the complainers to explain how they think this thread should go. Give some example posts of what your vision is. And no one stepped up. They all shut up for a bit then came back in here to complain some more and take another dump on our conversation. Again this is a discussion not just a thread to post predictions. Your welcome to post predictions also but it's not limited to that. If you want a prediction though I'll give you one. Some will continue to complain no matter what happens. The ensembles strongly support so my confidence is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS still hell bent on digging a trough into the SW. Another run with a nice look in the NA towards day 15, but still not much progress in squashing the eastern ridge. It must be wrong. Definitely cringe worthy. Could repeat once again that the EPS has overplayed the dump into the Southwest all winter long. But I won't. I'll just stick with hugging the GEFS which has handled the longer ranges better for our corner of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, frd said: Speaking of the Pac, seems the record breaking MJO in phase 7 for years, will be the death blow to the La Nina, should weaken rapidly soon Yep but I have no idea where we go from there. Im not going to pretend. The enso state has been misrepresented at long leads several years in a row. But might as well say a modoki Nino is coming. Why not. As good a shot as anything else. Some guidance suggests that. 40-80" next year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Definitely cringe worthy. Could repeat once again that the EPS has overplayed the dump into the Southwest all winter long. But I won't. I'll just stick with hugging the GEFS which has handled the longer ranges better for our corner of the world. Agree with @Bob Chill that the geps coming on board with the gefs plus the slow bleed in a better direction by the gefs is big. The EPS has been routed a few times this year at range. No reason to feel doomed that it's correct here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Btw we don't need to see some big blue ball over us to have a shot. Many of our big late season snows from a -nao came during otherwise warm periods. It could be 50 every day the week of the snow. It's happened before. This isn't a cold pattern. But it's one that could force something under us and if it amps just right, get a 990 low off VA beach and....hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Agree with @Bob Chill that the geps coming on board with the gefs plus the slow bleed in a better direction by the gefs is big. The EPS has been routed a few times this year at range. No reason to feel doomed that it's correct here. Nope, no feeling of Doom or despair on my part. Watched the EPS flail around too often this winter to be to concerned about what it has in the longer ranges. And to be honest if we don't get anymore snow this winter then so be it. I will move on. But I will keep tracking till the end just like I do every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yep but I have no idea where we go from there. Im not going to pretend. The enso state has been misrepresented at long leads several years in a row. But might as well say a modoki Nino is coming. Why not. As good a shot as anything else. Some guidance suggests that. 40-80" next year!!! Is there a connection with the solar cycle , I thought there was. Again I have no real idea, but neutral or weak West based might work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Btw we don't need to see some big blue ball over us to have a shot. Many of our big late season snows from a -nao came during otherwise warm periods. It could be 50 every day the week of the snow. It's happened before. This isn't a cold pattern. But it's one that could force something under us and if it amps just right, get a 990 low off VA beach and....hope. We may not need the PV sitting above us in Canada to score but if we see that move to the general NW Canada region and then plant we can probably call a final time on this winter. Gets into that location and the strong troughing we are seeing in the SW on the EPS will probably begin to verify and we are looking at an early spring as the SE ridging goes to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, frd said: Is there a connection with the solar cycle , I thought there was. Again I have no real idea, but neutral or weak West based might work. Think the solar cycle correlates more so with the higher latitude blocking as opposed to ENSO states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 38 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Nope, no feeling of Doom or despair on my part. Watched the EPS flail around too often this winter to be to concerned about what it has in the longer ranges. And to be honest if we don't get anymore snow this winter then so be it. I will move on. But I will keep tracking till the end just like I do every year. You me cape and bob to the end. Every year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 38 minutes ago, frd said: Is there a connection with the solar cycle , I thought there was. Again I have no real idea, but neutral or weak West based might work. I honestly don't know. That's something worth looking into when I have some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 35 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: We may not need the PV sitting above us in Canada to score but if we see that move to the general NW Canada region and then plant we can probably call a final time on this winter. Gets into that location and the strong troughing we are seeing in the SW on the EPS will probably begin to verify and we are looking at an early spring as the SE ridging goes to town. Oh yea if the EPS is right we're cooked. But the mediocre temp profile on the gefs is fine imo. Of course I'd prefer a cold and snowy pattern but that's just not in the cards so I'll take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Thoughts on the 18z GFS? My inexperienced eyes can't tell if it's a step better than 12z or not (at least setup-wise) for next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 42 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thoughts on the 18z GFS? My inexperienced eyes can't tell if it's a step better than 12z or not (at least setup-wise) for next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: You me cape and bob to the end. Every year lol. Always! I don't give it up until sometime in March when it's clearly over. I enjoy the technical side of the chase. Plain and simple and it's always fun for me regardless. There are different levels of fun of course. Lol. But I'm hard wired for this stuff so I embrace the rare wins and plentiful fails. We might pull off a hail mary this year. You never know until you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 On the bright side if the 18Z GFS is right you can kiss the drought issue goodbye. Plenty of rain over the next couple of weeks according to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: Ah c'mon...is it really that far away from something? (Especially at this lead time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Ah c'mon...is it really that far away from something? (Especially at this lead time) there's a low where a high should be. it looked pretty ugly to my eyes, but who knows what will happen a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 92/93 was pretty bad until march, so who knows...maybe we can get a late season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: there's a low where a high should be. it looked pretty ugly to my eyes, but who knows what will happen a week away. Yeah I saw that...but it seems like there have been like three different solutions over the past few GFS runs, lol (whereas the EURO has been more consistent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: there's a low where a high should be. it looked pretty ugly to my eyes, but who knows what will happen a week away. Let’s be honest. Anything outside 3-4 days is gaaaaaaarrrrrbaaaaaaage on the models this “winter”. We can do better. I know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I saw that...but it seems like there have been like three different solutions over the past few GFS runs, lol (whereas the EURO has been more consistent) Euro op is normally a more consistent model, run to run, then the GFS. As far as the 18Z run? Wasn't really enamored with it at all. But roughly 7 days out so plenty can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Euro op is normally a more consistent model, run to run, then the GFS. As far as the 18Z run? Wasn't really enamored with it at all. But roughly 7 days out so plenty can change. Since its not a wrapped up synoptic type of deal (at least nothing is showing that), we really don't know what we're dealing with yet. Both the gefs and eps have held steady the last couple days. Any by steady I mean they are spread all over the place with no consolidation towards any 1 solution. Until I start to see some sort of consolidation towards a specific outcome I won't bite on any op run even if it shows the same thing 3+ times in a row. It we pull something off it will be pretty lucky considering it's in the middle of an overall blah background state for snowfall. I'm sure you and I are on the same page. Just stating my take right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: then Since its not a wrapped up synoptic type of deal (at least nothing is showing that), we really don't know what we're dealing with yet. Both the gefs and eps have held steady the last couple days. Any by steady I mean they are spread all over the place with no consolidation towards any 1 solution. Until I start to see some sort of consolidation towards a specific outcome I won't bite on any op run even if it shows the same thing 3+ times in a row. It we pull something off it will be pretty lucky considering it's in the middle of an overall blah background state for snowfall. I'm sure you and I are on the same page. Just stating my take right now. Not really high on that period but I could see where something could work out. Making it a 3 day weekend at Valley Forge Casino for my B-Day so I will be too busy losing money to really worry about snow then anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not really high on that period but I could see where something could work out. Making it a 3 day weekend at Valley Forge Casino for my B-Day so I will be too busy losing money to really worry about snow then anyway. I’ve been getting killed before at the casino and still checking the forum...while waiting for a drink..that is usually the time things really go south both weather and my wallet. You will check in I bet money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 8 hours ago, BristowWx said: I’ve been getting killed before at the casino and still checking the forum...while waiting for a drink..that is usually the time things really go south both weather and my wallet. You will check in I bet money on it. Yeah, I probably will. Will take my laptop though because this site has been giving my phone fits lately. Thinking about it though I think I would like to see a major snow then. My wife is talking about shopping at King of Prussia and that can put a far bigger dent in my wallet then what I could possibly lose at the casino. So I say, Let it snow!!! eta: Sorry, should have put this in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, I probably will. Will take my laptop though because this site has been giving my phone fits lately. Thinking about it though I think I would like to see a major snow then. My wife is talking about shopping at King of Prussia and that can put a far bigger dent in my wallet then what I could possibly lose at the casino. So I say, Let it snow!!! Happy birthday brother. Perfect birthday is a fresh drink, pocket full of casino cash, comp buffet, and a Wintter Storm Warning. Maybe some action in the room later..that’s optional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah c'mon...is it really that far away from something? (Especially at this lead time) It wasn't great, but not terrible either. Right now there's a good signal that we'll have precip and cold air in the neighborhood around the same time. We don't know if they'll come together in the right way at the right time, but at this lead, it's good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 These Northern Lows are getting on my nerves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I don't think this is what were looking for..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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