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February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I disagree

 

Anyway, Wednesday is trending warmer. It stops here

Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph.

Chuck, can you elaborate on why you disagree? Its fine that you do, just a little more behind it to say why that is the case would be great. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

@Ji

i know you were worried about the lack of snow signal on the EPS, and gefs for that matter, but it's just coming into range. It's typically a bit after blocking establishes that we get a threat. The gefs was just rushing the evolution 3/4 days ago.   But now everything is in agreement that the block will retrograde west across North Am.  The gefs was still about 2 days ahead of the EPS but now the 6z gefs slowed things down a day and is only slightly ahead of the EPS now so even that is coming into alignment. Gefs had the right idea but was rushing. Based on that our best chance would be in March. And it might not be until march 5-15th ish.  I wouldn't be shocked if something does sneak up before then either the very end of Feb as the blocking forces a high across to our north in that period or with that early march wave  on guidance.  But history says we do better after the blocking flexes and is going through a relax or break down phase. That is later.  I would expect the EPS and gefs to start to light up in the next 48-72 hours or so as the period just beyond what they can see now comes into focus. If later this week we're still not seeing any reflection in snowfall then I will worry a bit. Not at all now. 

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Jandurin

Jandurin

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

There is a different variable on Earth right now, 17-18, that differs from analogs past. I think he's making a climo based forecast. The closest way to explain is maybe cross-polar ridge dynamics dont trend into this

So you don't disagree there might be a snowstorm, you just disagree with the very premise of what he said.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Good write up, PSU.  I find this anomaly map a bit confusing though.  With higher heights in the NOA domain space, why would there be negative temp anomalies in Greenland?

My guess is because by that frame the ridge has retrograded to the point it's centered southwest of Greenland allowing cold to filter in from over the top. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

There is a different variable on Earth right now, 17-18, that differs from analogs past. I think he's making a climo based forecast. The closest way to explain is maybe cross-polar ridge dynamics dont trend into this

Chuck I do think things might seem skewed towards extremes right now but when it gets cold it's been cold. It's been a year of great variance. That said the warmth hasnt meant it can't get cold also. Plus extreme warmth doesn't preclude snow later. In 1976 it was 80 degrees 5 days before Baltimore got 8" of snow. 

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snowmagnet

snowmagnet

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The good news is things look good for a last hurrah...the bad news is we are pretty much out of the game for 10 days. We can wrangle and hand wring about what we see d10-15+ or we can just relax and enjoy the warm weather this week. I'm choosing the latter. 

I thought there was something possibly around Feb. 26-28th.  Is that gone at this point?  Once the blocking begins, could something potentially show up before the end of February or are we on hold until March 3rd or so?  By the way, my parents got married in a blizzard in PG County in MD on March 1, 1969.  

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The good news is things look good for a last hurrah...the bad news is we are pretty much out of the game for 10 days. We can wrangle and hand wring about what we see d10-15+ or we can just relax and enjoy the warm weather this week. I'm choosing the latter. 

Anyone who doesn't is a lunatic.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, snowmagnet said:

I thought there was something possibly around Feb. 26-28th.  Is that gone at this point?  Once the blocking begins, could something potentially show up before the end of February or are we on hold until March 3rd or so?  By the way, my parents got married in a blizzard in PG County in MD on March 1, 1969.  

Big long shot. Cold high moving through but getting that to combine with precip looks unlikely. Very unlikely honestly. The real window doesn't look to start until the first week of March. If something shows up before then I can guaranty it will be discussed in full detail. lol

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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Sparky said:

I don't think Chuck is trolling.  His mind is confused and I think he is suffering from some kind of addiction.

I can't get this program off of me. I saw a person in 2013 and since then a net has been over my mind, mirroring everything no matter how stupid. It was a structure for time, autopilot, and I don't know how to shake it... drugs? seclusion? change the future? This person also breaks it daily in his doings, website updates and stuff. Torturous stuff, hopefully at least you guys can benefit from my sight in weather 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm more than fine tossing the next 10 days or so and enjoying the weather if that period is that legit. Going to be exciting.

It is kinda fun pondering a big blocked coastal. We really haven't seen many since 2011. Jan 2016 was a lucky strike in the middle of a multi-year blocking drought. Once things broke down after the Jan 2011 storm, it's been pretty much a "new regime" for hemispheric winter patterns. Further north like NYC/SNE/NNE is the sweet spot due to time of year climo coming up but we're squarely in the general game until further notice. 

If you want to track ens trends coming over the next week, keep an eye on the SE region. If we start seeing some coastal hits put them in the game then it's a testament to how good it might get around here. What we really don't want to see at range is NW climo storms with little city involvement. That spells temp problems regardless of track/pattern/etc. Once we're in March we need wiggle room. As the better pattern comes closer to the mid range we'll probably start drooling over teases and such but if the teases don't include central VA/NC piedmont then it's going to be a little troubling. 

Atlantic blocking slows down flow so there won't be tight spacing. Let's make a basic assumption that the good period runs at least a good consecutive 2 week period beginning sometime around March 5th or so. That would put us in the game through March 20th at least and that's just about the end of climo period for areas near the cities. With slower/blocked flow, there's really only opportunity for 1-3 good storms due to speed/spacing etc. Do we hit with 1-3 chances in late season climo? Beats me. lol. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Anyone who doesn't is a lunatic.

wow....or maybe just someone that relishes snow and cold when climatoligically its supposed to be as such.  

Or they can get their fix of warmth the other 9 months out of the year.  

nothing lunatic about it whatsoever.  

 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It is kinda fun pondering a big blocked coastal. We really haven't seen many. Jan 2016 was a lucky strike in the middle of a multi-year blocking drought. Once things broke down after the Jan 2011 storm, it's been pretty much a "new regime" for hemispheric winter patterns. Further north like NYC/SNE/NNE is the sweet spot due to time of year climo coming up but we're squarely in the general game until further notice. 

If you want to track ens trends coming over the next week, keep an eye on the SE region. If we start seeing some coastal hits put them in the game then it's a testament to how good it might get around here. What we really don't want to see at range is NW climo storms with little city involvement. That spells temp problems regardless of track/pattern/etc. Once we're in March we need wiggle room. As the better pattern comes closer to the mid range we'll probably start drooling over teases and such but if the teases don't include central VA/NC piedmont then it's going to be a little troubling. 

Atlantic blocking slows down flow so there won't be tight spacing. Let's make a basic assumption that the good period runs at least a good consecutive 2 week period beginning sometime around March 5th or so. That would put us in the game through March 20th at least and that's just about the end of climo period for areas near the cities. With slower/blocked flow, there's really only opportunity for 1-3 good storms due to speed/spacing etc. Do we hit with 1-3 chances in late season climo? Beats me. lol. 

Great points.  Its a go big or go home kinda deal.  not going to be loaded w/ opps to "pick one".  As you stated, just nice to see a good final period coming up before its back to skorts for everyone.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Great points.  Its a go big or go home kinda deal.  not going to be loaded w/ opps to "pick one".  As you stated, just nice to see a good final period coming up before its back to skorts for everyone.  

It's an interesting period (stating obvious...duh...lol). There's always a chance it's more active than I/we think. That Pac NW trough could "feed the flow" with tighter spacing. The "downhill" look and weird tracks aren't exactly a good thing. It can be a shred factory. OTOH- it also means cold highs anchored so maybe it isn't just a go big pattern. Meaning we could get some light events light overrunning if a shortwave taps the gulf but gets shredded as it approaches. I really don't and won't claim to know how it's going to shake out so laser precision disco provides limited value until we get closer and see things more clearly. 

We can all agree that big storm potential is there. These types of patterns in late winter have a history of doing big things. Take a look at analog #3 on the CPC d11+ plot...heh...

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

wow....or maybe just someone that relishes snow and cold when climatoligically its supposed to be as such.  

Or they can get their fix of warmth the other 9 months out of the year.  

nothing lunatic about it whatsoever.  

 

Sure it is. Someone who refuses to enjoy 70 and sun, preferring to pull their hair and gnash their teeth while watching the models for the faintest glimpse of a pattern change in the nearer term, has issues.

On topic: The block is looking like the real deal now. Good stuff, and it’ll get interesting in these parts the first time an op shows a crawling monster...which turns out to only be a cockroach. :lol:

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