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February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2


WxUSAF

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

If we completely fail?   Sure I'll throw a tantrum just for fun. When it's really over. Might do it even if we don't fail just for fun. 

EPS mean h5 looks freekin sweet man. Still a random splattering of events d10-15 but the overall look will keep me very interested for the foreseeable future. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

You should know exactly what happens....Archambault event!

Bob,  I am really starting to believe we have a chance. To be honest a few days ago it appeared we were losing the block and that it might not retrograde. Now it appears we have agreement, and pretty impressive agreement at that with the EPS and the GEFS.

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8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, not unfair. I randomly picked one of probably 100s similar posts. 

I don't get why you are so hard on LR stuff. Sensible wx is limited to 4-5 days tops most of the time. Especially with discrete precip events. But potential and shutouts can be identified at pretty long leads. This is a game/hobby. It's fun because it's very challenging, complicated, and rewards don't come easy. If you don't like playing the game and can't handle disappointment or frustration then don't play at all. It's really that simple. 

You like to criticize everyone for playing and it makes no sense. We do it because we like it and I can ASSURE you that no window will ever go unnoticed or discussed at ANY lead time. Potential and opportunity /= sensible wx. For those of us who actually enjoy playing this game and participating in this hobby, we don't need to be constantly reminded and criticized by the likes of you. We know exactly how this works. We know the returns are low. We know there are no locks. But we also know that IT DOES SNOW HERE. How, when, and why is a complicated and fun process to figure out. We'll continue to have our fun the exact same way every single year regardless of how it all happens. Nobody can say anything or do anything to change any of the minds of the dedicated folks. It's always fun for us even if often frustrating and disappointing. If it's not fun for you then don't bother reading or posting a single thing here. Why torture yourself? 

 I am just realistic. When its bad, its bad. When its good. It's good. Today was good, we snuck something in under the most unlikely conditions. I am happy. This winter isn't a total disaster now.

I guess I just play the game differently. I don't see any sense in tracking something with a very low chance of verification. But I don't think I've stood in the way of  others doing that.

I've been on these boards since I was 17 years old. I am 36 now. Its not like I am not dedicated.

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54 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

 I am just realistic. When its bad, its bad. When its good. It's good. Today was good, we snuck something in under the most unlikely conditions. I am happy. This winter isn't a total disaster now.

I guess I just play the game differently. I don't see any sense in tracking something with a very low chance of verification. But I don't think I've stood in the way of  others doing that.

I've been on these boards since I was 17 years old. I am 36 now. Its not like I am not dedicated.

And it’s not like you’re a good poster as well. 

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both JB and Joe DAleo are now  both  surmising  an early  March  surprise  given  the  atmospheric conditions  developing  and surface reflectons appearing as a result.  It  seems 2008-9 was  the latest  example off a major  coastal under  these  conditions. Enjoy you sunday-good day to  all

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4 hours ago, rcflyermd68 said:

both JB and Joe DAleo are now  both  surmising  an early  March  surprise  given  the  atmospheric conditions  developing  and surface reflectons appearing as a result.  It  seems 2008-9 was  the latest  example off a major  coastal under  these  conditions. Enjoy you sunday-good day to  all

Based on what has been developing, its no surprise as that period has been looking tasty for about a week now, and it seems to be growing legs.  Glad they are "on board" though.  We need all the help we can get.

Yes, its gonna be a good day!  

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49 minutes ago, Ji said:

i love the upper air pattern coming up...but the EPS snowfall map is as dismal as ive seen all winter for us 

One thing about blocked patterns that isn't good is storms move slow and they are spaced further apart than progressive flow. Since we're over a week away from being back in the game, we're not going to see any type of consensus build for a while. Probably a good time to enjoy other things instead tracking winter wx. 

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1 hour ago, Scraff said:

March is really looking good.  It’s going to take a lot of luck to NOT get pummeled. 

The snow gods are listening and are displeased with the arrogance of this post. Quick, go build an alter of twigs and leaves and printouts of the early March EPS NAO plots and burn it as a sacrifice to appease them. 

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