February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

[Bob Chill]

Kuchera shows a more uniform 2-3". Good representation of the surface temp problems to the east of 95. Euro has run a few degrees warm with past events this year but I wouldn't bet on it this time considering ita going to be 70 this week before the front. It's not that strong of a cold front. 

[WEATHER53]

27 minutes ago, Jebman said:

We're all going to get a good shellacking of snow, before this winter is over. And, it is far from over.

I think we get one or two 2-4" systems 

[CAPE]

I still think if there is a wave of significance, it pretty strongly favors NW areas for frozen with the h5 look. Glanced at the EPS members and didn't see any snowy solutions that miss or favor south of our region. There are about a dozen that are weak sauce or rainy and dont amount to anything significant in the snow dept. A Handful have the better stripe of snow north of us. The rest are right through our general area.

I just hope there is a nice event somewhere close. I have a 5 day weekend so I will take a couple short trips. Where I end up Sat-Sunday is yet to be determined lol.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I still think if there is a wave of significance, it pretty strongly favors NW areas in this setup for frozen. Glanced at the EPS members and didn't see any snowy solutions that miss or favor south of our region. There are about a dozen that are weak sauce or rainy and dont amount to anything significant in the snow dept. A Handful have the better stripe of snow north of us. The rest are right through our general area.

I just hope there is a nice event somewhere close. I have a 5 day weekend so I will take a couple short trips. Where I end up Sat-Sunday is yet to be determined lol.

Going to go out on a limb here but... going where the best snow is at? 

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Going to go out on a limb here but... going where the best snow is at? 

Well of course. Pretty sure it wont be the beach this time lol.

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well of course. Pretty sure it wont be the beach this time lol.

Will be just outside of Philly myself for 4 days at Valley Forge Casino losing my money. Leave Sat morning so hopefully that night I can jump back and forth from the machines to going outside watching snow fall. 

eta: Sorry for the banter. Thought I was in the Banter thread.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Will be just outside of Philly myself for 4 days at Valley Forge Casino losing my money. Leave Sat morning so hopefully that night I can jump back and forth from the machines to going outside watching snow fall. 

What did you think of the 0z EPS for the LR? Seems it backed off of the strong blocking some over the past couple runs. Not as far south either. Given the recent verification history with modeled blocks in the NA, I dont like it lol. With the less than ideal look out west, at least for a while, we are going to need a stout block in the Baffin/Davis Strait region to beat down the se ridge.

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

What did you think of the 0z EPS for the LR? Seems it backed off of the strong blocking some over the past couple runs. Not as far south either. Given the recent verification history with modeled blocks in the NA, I dont like it lol. With the less than ideal look out west, at least for a while, we are going to need a stout block in the Baffin/Davis Strait region to beat down the se ridge.

Haven't had a chance to look at the long range quite yet. Was just looking over the setup for the weekend. Found some of the changes on the EPS interesting though for the storm. A little better look at 500 with a shortwave trough now showing up on the backside of the storm and better ridging off the coast. Think the EPS might be moving towards a solution that actually amplifies the low somewhat and moves the storm up the coast more so then previous runs. Snowfall means sort of show this solution as the heavier rates are migrating North and eastward.

[CAPE]

Mount Holly's take on the weekend potential-

For Saturday and Sunday...The consensus of the model guidance continues to increase regarding a storm system affecting our area during this time frame. The flow is progressive though therefore the surface feature will be moving by fast Saturday night into very early Sunday. Short wave energy from the northern stream looks to link up with a short wave tracking east-northeastward from the Southern Plains. The more interaction now with these features allows the trough to sharpen a bit for a time as it shifts eastward. This increases the downstream large scale ascent and organizes surface low pressure. Surface high pressure initially over New England is forecast to give way, however some signal of cold air damming looks to be in place at least near and west of the fall line. A blend of some of the model guidance shows an area of snow, a wintry mix zone then perhaps some rain farther south. The precipitation types will depend on the track of the surface low and how much warming aloft can occur despite the system moving quickly. For now, used a blend of the GFS and ECMWF 1000-850 mb and 850-700 mb partial thicknesses which the precipitation types were derived from. Given uncertainty with the details, kept it as rain and snow at this point. A swath of some accumulating snow cannot be ruled out, however the details have yet to be determined at this range.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Haven't had a chance to look at the long range quite yet. Was just looking over the setup for the weekend. Found some of the changes on the EPS interesting though for the storm. A little better look at 500 with a shortwave trough now showing up on the backside of the storm and better ridging off the coast. Think the EPS might be moving towards a solution that actually amplifies somewhat and moves the storm up the coast more so then previous runs. Snowfall means sort of show this solution as the heavier rates are migrating North and eastward.

Yeah I did notice that on the means as well.

Also, I think its time to for a new thread for this threat. Needs to be split out because there is much to discuss with the evolution of the upcoming pattern, and things are going to get more jumbled.

I think you should start it  

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I did notice that on the means as well.

Also, I think its time to for a new thread for this threat. Needs to be split out because there is much to discuss with the evolution of the upcoming pattern, and things are going to get more jumbled.

I think you should start it  

Sounds good. I'll set her up. After all there can never be enough whining so lets have 2 threads where they can go to town. 

[attml]

Here we go

[CAPE]

New thread for discussion of the potential weekend event-

 

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I think we still have a chance into mid March. Similar to last year. 

This wave reminds me a bit of the one mid February last year that teased us then trended north. Hopefully this one ends better. But that was a wave along the boundary following a front during an otherwise hostile period for snow. Then the march blocky cold period started to show up after. Could be a similar thing here. Hopefully we just have a bit more luck this time. 

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Interesting. Euro is 2-5" through all of the region with the max stripe running sw-ne to the east of 95. Some mixing far se but clean snow through the corridor. Weaker and further east with the low track.  Run is a win. Has wiggle room. 

Definitely a good run. I don't care that I'm fringed. I want wiggle room. I hate to sound like a broken record but these are some of the most consistent setups in terms of model bias. These follow up waves along a front above a SE ridge during progressive patterns almost always trend north the last 48 hours. Every once in a while something fluky can buck that trend like early march 2014 when a PV lobe rotates around at the perfect time to suppress a wave. But for every one of those there is a February last year, or march 2015 (2 actually one trended north into us and the second trended north until it missed), the storm the day after the super bowl in 2014, the January wave in 2001. 80% of these tend to adjust north at least some towards game time. 

And remember how king euro was the furthest south and gave us hope last February only 24-36 hours out before it bumped north. No guarantee but I don't want to be in the bullseye and definitely not on the southern half of the snow zone on all the guidance. I'd be fine if over the next 24 hours guidance converged on a solution just a bit south of ideal then let it bleed north the last 48 hours. 

4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I still think if there is a wave of significance, it pretty strongly favors NW areas for frozen with the h5 look. Glanced at the EPS members and didn't see any snowy solutions that miss or favor south of our region. There are about a dozen that are weak sauce or rainy and dont amount to anything significant in the snow dept. A Handful have the better stripe of snow north of us. The rest are right through our general area.

I just hope there is a nice event somewhere close. I have a 5 day weekend so I will take a couple short trips. Where I end up Sat-Sunday is yet to be determined lol.

See above. Agree. Plus there is a correlation between more amplified and north. The more ridging and return flow in front the more it can amp. And the more it amps the more it can press the boundary north in front with WAA. So it's like a feedback loop that if models are slightly off suddenly things adjust north 50 miles easily. 

We want some leeway so we can root for a stronger storm. If sucks having to root for a less amplifies system at the last minute. Kinda feels wrong. Let it be south then we're rooting on a better organized deeper storm. 

4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Going to go out on a limb here but... going where the best snow is at? 

Well so far this year I've had limited return for my commute.  And with construction along my route and a few icy mornings it's been a hellish commute lately. I use the time to reflect, listen to podcasts, audio books, and make parent calls so it's not wasted but sitting in traffic for an hour isn't fun. Maybe this will be the one it pays off. But I just hope it's something where everyone gets good snow and I get my typical bonus not everyone else gets screwed. 

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Definitely a good run. I don't care that I'm fringed. I want wiggle room. I hate to sound like a broken record but these are some of the most consistent setups in terms of model bias. These follow up waves along a front above a SE ridge during progressive patterns almost always trend north the last 48 hours. Every once in a while something fluky can buck that trend like early march 2014 when a PV lobe rotates around at the perfect time to suppress a wave. But for every one of those there is a February last year, or march 2015 (2 actually one trended north into us and the second trended north until it missed), the storm the day after the super bowl in 2014, the January wave in 2001. 80% of these tend to adjust north at least some towards game time. 

And remember how king euro was the furthest south and gave us hope last February only 24-36 hours out before it bumped north. No guarantee but I don't want to be in the bullseye and definitely not on the southern half of the snow zone on all the guidance. I'd be fine if over the next 24 hours guidance converged on a solution just a bit south of ideal then let it bleed north the last 48 hours. 

See above. Agree. Plus there is a correlation between more amplified and north. The more ridging and return flow in front the more it can amp. And the more it amps the more it can press the boundary north in front with WAA. So it's like a feedback loop that if models are slightly off suddenly things adjust north 50 miles easily. 

We want some leeway so we can root for a stronger storm. If sucks having to root for a less amplifies system at the last minute. Kinda feels wrong. Let it be south then we're rooting on a better organized deeper storm. 

Well so far this year I've had limited return for my commute.  And with construction along my route and a few icy mornings it's been a hellish commute lately. I use the time to reflect, listen to podcasts, audio books, and make parent calls so it's not wasted but sitting in traffic for an hour isn't fun. Maybe this will be the one it pays off. But I just hope it's something where everyone gets good snow and I get my typical bonus not everyone else gets screwed. 

lots of interesting solutions on Euro at Day 15-16 with blocking. Including a loopty dee dooop lol

 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

What did you think of the 0z EPS for the LR? Seems it backed off of the strong blocking some over the past couple runs. Not as far south either. Given the recent verification history with modeled blocks in the NA, I dont like it lol. With the less than ideal look out west, at least for a while, we are going to need a stout block in the Baffin/Davis Strait region to beat down the se ridge.

It wasn't a great run but it doesn't bother me too much.  Looking at the individual members there seems to be a cluster that does have the extreme blocking of the GEFS/GEPS and those are fine over the CONUS...but the ones that have a weaker blocking pattern are an absolute TORCH...and I mean torch torch like were talking 70s probably in early March.  Even though that cluster is strong, maybe even a majority... I just don't think thats the way this is going.  The GEFS has actually been the more consistent at that range all year and lately.  And it doubled down even more last night at 0z and again at 6z.  To the point where the GEFS is actually too suppressive if anything.  A compromise between the EPS and GEFS would actually be fine.  We definitely don't want to see things start to bleed towards the EPS...but my gut says it had a hiccup run and is still having whatever issues it has had lately in the long range.  If the GEFS and GEPS start to slide that way then I will worry more.  

Below is the 6z GEFS...this is actually too much of a good think IMO, look where the 50/50 is and how far south the blocking has retrograded and its still sliding southwest at that point.  That is squash city right there...if this and the EPS meet in the middle we would be ok

 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

lots of interesting solutions on Euro at Day 15-16 with blocking. Including a loopty dee dooop lol

blocking in March can be a lot of fun, the jet is prone to shorter wavelengths anyways and add in blocking and you can get those crazy cut off solutions.  

[HighStakes]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

blocking in March can be a lot of fun, the jet is prone to shorter wavelengths anyways and add in blocking and you can get those crazy cut off solutions.  

And can produce potent clippers like early March in 84, 99 and 2007. All 3 examples were followed by larger systems later in march.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

And can produce potent clippers like early March in 84, 99 and 2007. All 3 examples were followed by larger systems later in march.

Its a good look...  We actually average almost as much snow in March up here as any other month.  And considering there are way more "shutout" marches when the NAO doesn't cooperate and its just too warn (we can torch even up here if the AO/NAO is positive in March) our chances of a BIG month are just as high in march as other winter months...and higher then December by a large margin actually.   We have had some "good" march's lately but its been a while since we have an epic one.  But across the 127 years I compiled we have had quite a few 20" plus March years.  Seems to have happened A LOT back in the day, not so much anymore, but they are possible.  

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It wasn't a great run but it doesn't bother me too much.  Looking at the individual members there seems to be a cluster that does have the extreme blocking of the GEFS/GEPS and those are fine over the CONUS...but the ones that have a weaker blocking pattern are an absolute TORCH...and I mean torch torch like were talking 70s probably in early March.  Even though that cluster is strong, maybe even a majority... I just don't think thats the way this is going.  The GEFS has actually been the more consistent at that range all year and lately.  And it doubled down even more last night at 0z and again at 6z.  To the point where the GEFS is actually too suppressive if anything.  A compromise between the EPS and GEFS would actually be fine.  We definitely don't want to see things start to bleed towards the EPS...but my gut says it had a hiccup run and is still having whatever issues it has had lately in the long range.  If the GEFS and GEPS start to slide that way then I will worry more.  

Below is the 6z GEFS...this is actually too much of a good think IMO, look where the 50/50 is and how far south the blocking has retrograded and its still sliding southwest at that point.  That is squash city right there...if this and the EPS meet in the middle we would be ok

 

Yeah I am not worried at this point with what the GEFS, GEPS, and CFS are advertising. Something to watch though, as a legit -NAO has been depicted on guidance many times over the past several winters but really has only materialized in a much weaker, transient form. We need legit for this upcoming window to produce. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I am not worried at this point with what the GEFS, GEPS, and CFS are advertising. Something to watch though, as a legit -NAO has been depicted on guidance many times over the past several winters but really has only materialized in a much weaker, transient form. We need legit for this upcoming window to produce. 

There are definitely reasons to be skeptical.  We did develop good blocking last year in March after lacking most of the year though, and it does seem to be something that happens quite frequently in Nina years that are generally sucky yet a decent percentage go out with a bang late.  Way too small a sample size to say if there is a correlation but I have noticed it.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

See what happens, 10mb warming, trend toward snow

[WxUSAF]

If the ensemble look for the Feb 26 and beyond period continues to hold, expect some wild looking Op runs to start showing up this weekend. Someone on twitter posted that the end of the GEFS run is basically a carbon copy of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

If the ensemble look for the Feb 26 and beyond period continues to hold, expect some wild looking Op runs to start showing up this weekend. Someone on twitter posted that the end of the GEFS run is basically a carbon copy of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm.

I saw that.  The issue is that was hr 384.

[Ji]

the difference between this -NAO and the other fake NAO-s is that we are coming off a real SSW event so perhaps this -NAO threat has more legs than usual. Plus MJO is suppose to get into Phase 8 and phase 1 although the euro run is very weak

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If the ensemble look for the Feb 26 and beyond period continues to hold, expect some wild looking Op runs to start showing up this weekend. Someone on twitter posted that the end of the GEFS run is basically a carbon copy of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm.

I cant stop drooling over that Davis Strait block and the 50-50 low locked in under it. The last couple runs of the GEFS its not even a 50-50, its so far south. I suppose suppression will start to be a concern if that look holds. The 12z run today is quite a bit colder looking in the east, and the precip anomalies for days 10-16 aren't a bad look.

[poolz1]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I cant stop drooling over that Davis Strait block and the 50-50 low locked in under it. The last couple runs of the GEFS its not even a 50-50, its so far south. I suppose suppression will start to be a concern if that look holds. The 12z run today is quite a bit colder looking in the east, and the precip anomalies for days 10-16 aren't a bad look.

You and me both...drooling. My thoughts from 00z to the 12z run of the gefs were suppression as well.  But, we both know that looking for a blockbuster at the beginning of a pattern is like throwing darts.  3/8-10 MECS!

Thats just me throwing darts...but I cant help but having high hopes for the first 2 weeks of March.  Could we fail? Absolutely..But the odds of a great finish, even if climo isnt hit, are better than avg imo.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Have you ever seen anything like it? I'll take the under, by a lot

 

[WxUSAF]

25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I cant stop drooling over that Davis Strait block and the 50-50 low locked in under it. The last couple runs of the GEFS its not even a 50-50, its so far south. I suppose suppression will start to be a concern if that look holds. The 12z run today is quite a bit colder looking in the east, and the precip anomalies for days 10-16 aren't a bad look.

Well it’s like a 50-50 that moves south as the NAO flexes. Major cutoff low potential I’d wager if that type of thing happened. Especially with that central US ridge look.