Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I'm not expecting a clean all snow event. It's in the realm but definitely not the most likely outcome. If it happens great, if not then give my yard a good shot before the flip and I'll be totally satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Definitely worried we don't have much wiggle room left and still 96 hours out. I'd rather us be on the northern fringe at this range. Yeeah...and you hope that this is the goalpost for the north trend, but...as you said, we still have way too long to go! Gonna be agonizing 24-48 hours...but I wonder how far north could it go?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, high risk said: It's a valid concern, although the really dry air in place during Saturday will allow for some nice evaporative cooling at the start. Exactly. It's no doubt the best airmass and precip timing we've had to work with since mid Jan. If precip comes in hot and heavy then there will be plenty of opportnity to get respectable accums before ptype problem start. Even if the gfs tracked overhead or north there would still be decent accums before problems. I'd much prefer that problem versus light qfp start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly. It's no doubt the best airmass and precip timing we've had to work with since mid Jan. If precip comes in hot and heavy then there will be plenty of opportnity to get respectable accums before ptype problem start. Even if the gfs tracked overhead or north there would still be decent accums before problems. I'd much prefer that problem versus light qfp start to finish. Thank you for making sense with your posts while everyone else just panics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Thank you for making sense with your posts while everyone else just panics No panic. This is the best shot in a while. But I would rather it be 50 miles south of where it is. That's all. I'm being picky though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Thank you for making sense with your posts while everyone else just panics The problem with what the euro showed at 12z is it was most likely the best case scenario. Setting expectations on a best case scenario at d4-5 is ripe for hurt feelings. I'm just tracking the likelyhood that this storm at least delivers some accum snow before the wheels come off. All runs tonight are showing snowfall with room for a worse track. Still 2 days away before writing off an all rain event but it's starting to have that feel that we get some snow no matter what. Def not calling for a lock on that but it's trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 20 minutes ago, MD Snow said: huh? The low clearly has trended north on all guidance today. It's pretty clear on the GIF that it is coming north. I'm not trying to fool anyone and gosh darn it I hope it stops but it's worth noting that the GFS has come well north today. It looks more in line with other guidance now. The problem is that we're still 96 hrs out. LOL 12z GFS showed nothing and had nothing at all for us and people complained. 00z GFS swings to amped and its OMG ITS NORTH ITS ALL OVER. Give me a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 There may be a north trend, but I thought today's guidance was a coming into focus trend overall. Like Bob Chill said, the Euro is best case, but all guidance seemed to come to agree today on accumulating snow in most of our backyards. I am therefore optimistic, and my bar is low. 6" last year and 6" this year vs climo of 24". I will stop posting now and try to add to my 4 years of lurking and reading and learning. I grew up in Upstate NY and have always been a snow lover, but have come to appreciate how complicated it is to get snow sometimes in the MA and I truly thank all of you regular posters and mets for teaching me over the years all about it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, yoda said: LOL 12z GFS showed nothing and had nothing at all for us and people complained. 00z GFS swings to amped and its OMG ITS NORTH ITS ALL OVER. Give me a break Check out the 24 hour qpf through 0z. Ptype problems are still in central va and SoMD. Lol. Even if the track went right over head after this, would you really care with how this winter has gone? There's a balance with ptype issue and strorm strength. I say bring on the juiced up WWA slug while the column is good and go to bed when the rain or sleet hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, yoda said: LOL 12z GFS showed nothing and had nothing at all for us and people complained. 00z GFS swings to amped and its OMG ITS NORTH ITS ALL OVER. Give me a break I've just always heard people like PSU and Chill talk about how it's not the best to be talking details (snow amounts, dews, evaporative cooling, precip type etc) when the storm is still 4 days out. 18z NAVGEM...I know I'll get kicked out of here for showing this but it's trended more amped all day. The point is that we don't have a whole lot of wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 00z GEM trended colder and a stronger system. Dumps heavy snow on most of us. Widespread 6-12”, locally higher and no switch to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GEM is a solid hit for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GEM - Snow overspreads the region at 102, pouring snow 108-114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: GEM is a solid hit for all. Yup... everyone would take the 00z GGEM and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 00z GEM trended colder and a stronger system. Dumps heavy snow on most of us. Widespread 6-12”, locally higher and no switch to rain. Thanks for the info. It's coming in slow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: GEM is a solid hit for all. 2 of the 3 major globals in the books with solid hits. Hard to get mad at that. I have a hunch the euro won't make any wholesale changes. Might not be as sweet as the 12z run but if it holds then this threat is officially legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Check out the 24 hour qpf through 0z. Ptype problems are still in central va and SoMD. Lol. Even if the track went right over head after this, would you really care with how this winter has gone? There's a balance with ptype issue and strorm strength. I say bring on the juiced up WWA slug while the column is good and go to bed when the rain or sleet hits. Nope... esp since most of that QPF is in the variety of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I thought the CMC and ICON stayed fairly firm with the low and that the low (at least the modeled snow) came further south and east on the 12Z Euro vs the prior run. Am I wrong? I was at work and doing my best to pay attention! lol You're right. The ICON actually came a little south from 00z last night to 00z tonight, and the CMC was a little south from 00z last night to 12z tonight. It looks like some model convergence, fortunately closer to the GGEM / ICON camp than earlier GFS runs. If we end up getting snow from this, the ICON will have earned some credibility. It has shown northern Maryland getting snow this weekend for every run over the last three days, and we're still 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Yup... everyone would take the 00z GGEM and run with it It’s an all out winter storm I would say. Easily warning criteria and some of the N and W suburbs get in on 10-15” amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Setting expectations on a best case scenario at d4-5 is ripe for hurt feelings. That is the cycle of mid-atlantic weather my friend. Someone posted this around Dec 6 2017. forgot who. but it applies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: It’s an all out winter storm I would say. Easily warning criteria and some of the N and W suburbs get in on 10-15” amounts. Yeah... its actually a lot better than the 12z EURO was lol... and we thought that was the high point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Yeah... its actually a lot better than the 12z EURO was lol... and we thought that was the high point There is a lot of moisture tap with this system. Pacific, Gulf, then coastal. WAA looks very good on the GEM and high is in a better spot to lock cold air in place just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Given this is in the 4 day range, looking more like a credible threat, at least our best shot of the year. Trends are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Given this is in the 4 day range, looking more like a credible threat, at least our best shot of the year. Trends are looking good. What do you think of the look in the long range? Obviously it's too far out to worry about any specifics but seems like some legit blocking setting up. Perhaps a late season threat. We nearly pulled it off last year. Maybe we get another go at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: What do you think of the look in the long range? Obviously it's too far out to worry about any specifics but seems like some legit blocking setting up. Perhaps a late season threat. We nearly pulled it off last year. Maybe we get another go at it. I think we still have a chance into mid March. Similar to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 hour ago, ers-wxman1 said: I think we still have a chance into mid March. Similar to last year. We're all going to get a good shellacking of snow, before this winter is over. And, it is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Euro looks south. 2-5" across the area with less north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Interesting. Euro is 2-5" through all of the region with the max stripe running sw-ne to the east of 95. Some mixing far se but clean snow through the corridor. Weaker and further east with the low track. Run is a win. Has wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Ukie also looks like it had a weaker low that was farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Mordecai said: That is the cycle of mid-atlantic weather my friend. Someone posted this around Dec 6 2017. forgot who. but it applies This is a keeper. But, we are still gonna get shellacked by snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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