February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The part that sucks is we had enough chances for the whole region to be sitting between 10-15" right now but we failed in all but the first chance. Now we're going through a typical shuffle period with a nw storm track as we approach the hail mary period. 

The good thing is we seem to be moving towards our first chance at a favorable pattern for a big storm. Haven't had that all year. The bad thing is time is running thin and good patterns are far from a guaranty of anything. The icing will be a mid/late March perfect track miller a that rains on us. 

That's when you all come up here and camp out during my 30" paste bomb. 

[frd]

HM still appears hopeful, and that works just fine for me. 

 

 

[frd]

This event appears to be getting more significant over the past few days. Instead of false hopes, regarding the SSWE we have the potential to break some records. 

Appears already that the eddy heat fluxes at really impressive 

 

 

[frd]

Record wind reversal. There has to be some sort of reaction to that action a few weeks from now, please .....

 

  

 

[cae]

Euro gives us snow again next Saturday.  5 runs in a row.  We're on the northern side of the precip this time.

[Bob Chill]

Acceptable event on the euro. Uncomplicated standard overrunning. No temp problems. I'll take it. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Acceptable event on the euro. Uncomplicated standard overrunning. No temp problems. I'll take it. 

What does it show for the region?

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Acceptable event on the euro. Uncomplicated standard overrunning. No temp problems. I'll take it. 

Flight delay level?  Or conversational? Have a flight back on Saturday damnit.  

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Flight delay level?  Or conversational? Have a flight back on Saturday damnit.  

Looks like 2-4 ish

eta- very similar to 0z. A tad less. Looks like 5-6 out west in the highlands.

[cae]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

What does it show for the region?

It's a day-7 op run, so this is just for fun.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, cae said:

It's a day-7 op run, so this is just for fun.

That does look fun.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Record wind reversal. There has to be some sort of reaction to that action a few weeks from now, please .....

 

  

 

This is all nice discussion but what does it mean down here on the surface OR what is your prediction?? There seems to be zero historical analog efforts of comparison and to this observer it's a lot of quoted posts of people who never post here with non discussion of what it means for where we All live, on the surface 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

This is all nice discussion but what does it mean down here on the surface OR what is your prediction?? There seems to be zero historical analog efforts of comparison and to this observer it's a lot of quoted posts of people who never post here with non discussion of what it means for where we All live, on the surface 

Well, Amy is an authority on the strat and HM is very credible. John, *( Earthlight ) has a good record with his forecasts, but to answer your general question I have no definitive prediction, except pointing out there might be some sort of counter effect here. 

The general thought is cooler/colder. 

I have read that the SSWE may be tempered here because the Pac is not working in tandem with the SSWE. 

You will read opposing points of view on this. Some say early March will turn colder and there may be snow chances , others , ( METS ) state early Spring is around the Corner ( DiMartino  I believe ) 

Many times the nature of the split, main PV and the weaker daughter PV will point to where colder anomaly forms. 

The one thing to watch for is that a secondary heat flux after the main SSWE occurs is forecasted still happen. If it does I believe this has even greater implication for a - NAO. 

Not sure if all of this answers your question, I am no expert, but what I have here is from various forecasters in the field .   

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

What does it show for the region?

Fringed 

[CAPE]

EPS still hell bent on digging a trough into the SW. Another run with a nice look in the NA towards day 15, but still not much progress in squashing the eastern ridge. It must be wrong. 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fringed 

Yes this doesn’t look good for you.  I can’t enjoy it if you get fringed.  I promise not to look outside 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fringed 

Control run takes care of that 3 days later. You're good. 

[87storms]

lwx is introducing rain/snow in the forecast now for saturday.  it's only 7 sunsets away...what could go wrong.

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS still hell bent on digging a trough into the SW. Another run with a nice look in the NA towards day 15, but still not much progress in squashing the eastern ridge. It must be wrong. 

Geps joining the gefs. We've seen this a few times this winter. Gefs + Geps > EPS. Let the caving commence

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Geps joining the gefs. We've seen this a few times this winter. Gefs + Geps > EPS. Let the caving commence

You know what I'm huggin'.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, frd said:

HM still appears hopeful, and that works just fine for me. 

 

 

I'm no where near his level but what he is saying makes sense logically and leaves hope. At this point I will totally be happy if we get a warning criteria event to avoid the total fail that can happen in a +nao Nina and move on to next year and our modoki Nino. 

[RevWarReenactor]

I don’t buy the idea that the pattern is finally looking good long range. It’s look a good few times ( start of Jan start of feb)and each time it went poof. So feels like we are chasing a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

but the day 7 thing.....more realistic potential.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I don’t buy the idea that the pattern is finally looking good long range. It’s look a good few times ( start of Jan start of feb)and each time it went poof. So feels like we are chasing a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

but the day 7 thing.....more realistic potential.

This post is mostly BS. And it's banter.

[RevWarReenactor]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This post is mostly BS. And it's banter.

No it’s not

analysis: we ve seen good patterns in the lr numerous times this year.

that analysis can be used to be very skeptical of any pattern change currently showing in the lr. 

 

 

[cbmclean]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm no where near his level but what he is saying makes sense logically and leaves hope. At this point I will totally be happy if we get a warning criteria event to avoid the total fail that can happen in a +nao Nina and move on to next year and our modoki Nino. 

I gave heard a few people mention the modoki El Nino over on my home thread(SE) mostly as a joke.  What is special about a modoki?

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I don’t buy the idea that the pattern is finally looking good long range. It’s look a good few times ( start of Jan start of feb)and each time it went poof. So feels like we are chasing a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

but the day 7 thing.....more realistic potential.

I am shocked that you have this opinion.  Next you'll tell me 2+2=4. My world is shattered. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I gave heard a few people mention the modoki El Nino over on my home thread(SE) mostly as a joke.  What is special about a modoki?

That location of warm SST seems perfect to favor a trough in the east and a strong enough STJ to throw moisture at it. That's basically what we want. Keep it simple. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

No it’s not

analysis: we ve seen good patterns in the lr numerous times this year.

that analysis can be used to be very skeptical of any pattern change currently showing in the lr. 

 

 

We haven't seen a -nao in the long range since November. 

This is the fallacy with the debs on here. They all basically see 2 patterns. Snow and everything else. That's not how it works. I love how some are preaching persistence when we went from a dry to a wet pattern. How is that persistence. All they see is snow. Its tunnel vision. 

We have had several pattern changes this winter. None have been all that snowy. They all did feature some background Nina stalwarts that hurt us. Weak stj. Progressive NS. But this next pattern if the nao does flip will negate some of that. We could still fail. Matter of fact the EPS says we do fail by dumping the trough into the west and ridging us out. (That's a typical euro bias). But if we do fail it will be a different fail then the others. 

But I realize all you care about is how much snow is on your lawn so if it doesn't snow you will complain and say see it happened again and lump it in with every other fail because you don't actually care about the meteorology behind it. Just the snow. 

[frd]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We haven't seen a -nao in the long range since November. 

This is the fallacy with the debs on here. They all basically see 2 patterns. Snow and everything else. That's not how it works. I love how some are preaching persistence when we went from a dry to a wet pattern. How is that persistence. All they see is snow. Its tunnel vision. 

We have had several pattern changes this winter. None have been all that snowy. They all did feature some background Nina stalwarts that hurt us. Weak stj. Progressive NS. But this next pattern if the nao does flip will negate some of that. We could still fail. Matter of fact the EPS says we do fail by dumping the trough into the west and ridging us out. (That's a typical euro bias). But if we do fail it will be a different fail then the others. 

But I realize all you care about is how much snow is on your lawn so if it doesn't snow you will complain and say see it happened again and lump it in with every other fail because you don't actually care about the meteorology behind it. Just the snow. 

HM states that as time moves by the North Atlantic becomes more convoluted :-) 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Tenman Johnson said:

This is all nice discussion but what does it mean down here on the surface OR what is your prediction?? There seems to be zero historical analog efforts of comparison and to this observer it's a lot of quoted posts of people who never post here with non discussion of what it means for where we All live, on the surface 

This is a DISCUSSION thread.  Yes this is an open discussion and speculation. Not a forecast. Sometimes myself and others do throw a forecast in there but most of it is discussion. 

And the posts giving additional opinions from some leading experts is valuable to the discussion. And we have discussed what the possible effects could be at length. A true SSW will disrupt the PV and that will probably lead to anomalous cold somewhere. But where is an open question. We're mostly in a wait and see here. I think people have been really responsible about that fact and that we don't know how this plays out. 

I have also seen some analogs thrown around. Problem is some ended well and some didn't. It's hard to know how this will play out. No one has predicted snow. We're just talking about the pattern. 

If you want more analog talk then why not start it. Offer some analogs. If you want more forecasts make one. I left an open invitation in banter the other day to all the complainers to explain how they think this thread should go. Give some example posts of what your vision is. And no one stepped up. They all shut up for a bit then came back in here to complain some more and take another dump on our conversation. 

Again this is a discussion not just a thread to post predictions. Your welcome to post predictions also but it's not limited to that. If you want a prediction though I'll give you one. Some will continue to complain no matter what happens. The ensembles strongly support so my confidence is high.