poolz1 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Damnit lol. You can't possibly beat him because he has like 20 go to analogs he pulls out and had running by default anytime we're even close to a snow pattern. But that is a legit good look right there. What people need to realize though is yes that look lead to some of our biggest snows but there were plenty of other times we had a similar block and nothing happened. 2001 being one of them. That should have ended better for us based on the setup but just crapped the bed. It still requires some luck. Posting this just so we remember how a great look doesn't always snow. But I'll take my chances on that pattern and roll the dice. Can't score if you don't get in the game AK is the main diff I see... What was the failure in 2001? Specific storm or the pattern never yielded a storm? I see this date referenced but dates of weather events dont seem to want to stick in my brain like some of you folks... ETA....Never mind..I see your date of 3/2. Will have to look that one up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not even close. That storm was a southern slider AND it was frigid before, during and after. Which of the 3 events he listed were you reacting to? I’m guessing the first one? And maybe you thought he listed 1/30/10 instead of 2/2-3/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Curious what did the 500 pattern look like leading up to March 2009? I recall mets keying in on late Feb early March that year weeks in advance for something to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: AK is the main diff I see... What was the failure in 2001? Specific storm or the pattern never yielded a storm? I see this date referenced but dates of weather events dont seem to want to stick in my brain like some of you folks... ETA....Never mind..I see your date of 3/2. Will have to look that one up.. Storm phased too slow and didn't get organized in time. Ended up a massive blizzard for New England. Nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said: Curious what did the 500 pattern look like leading up to March 2009? I recall mets keying in on late Feb early March that year weeks in advance for something to pop. It's not a bad comparison, though 2009 blocking developed sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 29 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's not a bad comparison, though 2009 blocking developed sooner. Right the storm that year was right at the start of march. More like march 5-15 might be a target this time. That 2009 storm was so close to a big one but just didn't come together. It came out in two waves and the upper low was out of sync with the surface. That could have been an HECS with better luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Right the storm that year was right at the start of march. More like march 5-15 might be a target this time. That 2009 storm was so close to a big one but just didn't come together. It came out in two waves and the upper low was out of sync with the surface. That could have been an HECS with better luck. That's right...March (1st or 2nd?) 2001 was an epic fail south of NYC IIRC. Many weenies were scarred for years afterwards. Though blizzards since then have soothed the wounds for many. I still remember the almost histrionic HPC discussions a day or two ahead of time. As I recall, it was sort of a 2 part storm expected (in NE) and "part 2" of the storm did deliver up in CT where I was at the time (and further north)... but Part 1 was a laughable dud. The Gov of CT had ordered interstate traffic closed to trucks ahead of the storm. About every truck stop in and near CT was packed while only a slushy couple of inches fell, followed by...nothing for many hours. I-95 was just wet. The absurdity was palpable. Of course the local media lapdogs had reporters out licking salt off the roads like trained circus clowns to show how dangerous the slush was. I think we ended up with a respectable 8-10" in SE CT but not the HECS totals that were being predicted up to the morning of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 The GFS looks pretty amped to me... lets see how this is going to play out. This is about as north as we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Snow nearby at 90... Snow at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Rain to the cities by 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Thump to rain... 5 to 7 inches per the TT maps for 00z GFS... 3 to 5 on the positive snow depth maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Thump to rain... 5 to 7 inches per the TT maps for 00z GFS I’d say...that’s a quick thump to hopefully drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 00z ICON looks nice Northern half of LWX CWA... 2 to 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GFS goes all Shaun White on us. White is the new gold ya know. Love to see the Euro later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 0z is looking good. Looks like we have convergence on a single type of solution now that includes snow for most if not all of us. Keep that locked in though 12z tomorrow and we'll be down to wobbles within an envelope that includes snow no matter what and I'll be ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Anyone, who's been around in the mid-atlantic this winter will probably take issue with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Just now, MD Snow said: Anyone, who's been around this winter in the mid atlantic will probably take issue with this... Funny how you skipped 90 and 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Just a 600 mile tick north from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Funny how you skipped 90 and 96 Yeah, we get 4-8"! I really really want this one. Big time. I'm just trying to be realistic and not get to excited 96 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 and of course the CMC is taking it time again. Come on Canada... stop watching Olympic hockey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Is the GFS drunk? Can someone explain how we went from a white map to this in a day? Rhetorical question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Problem I see for 95 DC Baltimore to PHL high is east northeast of NJ moves out pretty fast cold not locked in screams minimal snow to rain with east winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Anyone, who's been around this winter in the mid atlantic will probably take issue with this... The storm has continually been modeled to be quicker in arriving, so showing a fixed point in time hour frame doesn't yield a whole or accurate picture of any trend, imo. I like the convergence I have seen with the ops today and the increasing numbers of ensemble members who are showing snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Just now, WesternFringe said: The storm has continually been modeled to be quicker in arriving, so showing a fixed point in time hour frame doesn't yield a whole or accurate picture of any trend, imo huh? The low clearly has trended north on all guidance today. It's pretty clear on the GIF that it is coming north. I'm not trying to fool anyone and gosh darn it I hope it stops but it's worth noting that the GFS has come well north today. It looks more in line with other guidance now. The problem is that we're still 96 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS goes all Shaun White on us. White is the new gold ya know. Love to see the Euro later. What a hell-of-a-run. That was exciting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Problem I see for 95 DC Baltimore to PHL high is east northeast of NJ moves out pretty fast cold not locked in screams minimal snow to rain with east winds It's a valid concern, although the really dry air in place during Saturday will allow for some nice evaporative cooling at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Definitely worried we don't have much wiggle room left and still 96 hours out. I'd rather us be on the northern fringe at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Problem I see for 95 DC Baltimore to PHL high is east northeast of NJ moves out pretty fast cold not locked in screams minimal snow to rain with east winds Insitu cad works if the column is good at onset and rates are good. Low track is south of us so there won't be a powerful surge in the midlevels to quickly flip to rain. The gfs is closer to all snow than all rain with that surface low track. Mixing is very possible and probable for se regions but even they get front end snow. Im totally good with a mixed event that includes 3"+ before any mixing issues. Gfs isn't lacking on precip. It's a good slug and also very similar to the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: huh? The low clearly has trended north on all guidance today. It's pretty clear on the GIF that it is coming north. I'm not trying to fool anyone and gosh darn it I hope it stops but it's worth noting that the GFS has come well north today. It looks more in line with other guidance now. The problem is that we're still 96 hrs out. I thought the CMC and ICON stayed fairly firm with the low and that the low (at least the modeled snow) came further south and east on the 12Z Euro vs the prior run. Am I wrong? I was at work and doing my best to pay attention! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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