cae Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 The 18z ICON moved towards the GGEM / Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I'm oddly okay with him saying this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Maybe but the Euro isn't the only model showing snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Maybe but the Euro isn't the only model showing snow for us. GFS goes to rain, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Looks like the GFS took a step towards the Euro. Nice move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Yea..a 1016 mb low wont much in the way of dynamics to work with..lol At least the gfs took a step in the right direction....one of the first times this winter we have all models showing something other than a swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looks like the GFS took a step towards the Euro. Nice move. Yes but the fear of the north trend rain solution remains alive. It was a big move however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Seems like nothing wrong with track. Just that the GFS is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 GFS actually showing approximately 1-3” area wide and moving the way of the Euro? Has the king returned to the castle? What a bender he must of been on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 If you look at the GFS forecast soundings, it goes to rain because the flow in the 900-800 mb layer veers to southwest which tends to be downsloping/warming here. And even then, it just barely gets that layer above freezing. The models that are snowier have a stronger low-level circulation that keeps the flow in that layer much more backed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 He has been wrong on most all his threats this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 If the GFS had the high pressure a little farther west and a slightly more amped low it would be almost a carbon copy of the Euro. Starting to look like model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 So, is it just me or are we really close to all mix or even rain on almost all solutions today and we're still four days out? I get that the GFS actually got precip to us...but it's pretty much a dusting to an inch followed by some rain showers. EURO is a front end thump followed by a mix and rain south and east of 95. ICON turns to rain. Canadian mixes and turns to rain south and east of 95. If it goes much further north it'll just be another rain storm. I'm giving it until 0z tomorrow night before I get invested in this one and even then it might be a miss. We really don't have a lot of wiggle room now with almost all solutions having a low passing through Virginia. If it comes any further north at this point we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, MD Snow said: So, is it just me or are we really close to all mix or even rain on almost all solutions today and we're still four days out? I get that the GFS actually got precip to us...but it's pretty much a dusting to an inch followed by some rain showers. EURO is a front end thump followed by a mix and rain south and east of 95. ICON turns to rain. Canadian mixes and turns to rain south and east of 95. If it goes much further north it'll just be another rain storm. I'm giving it until 0z tomorrow night before I get invested in this one and even then it might be a miss. Can’t argue. The set up is tough. No HP to the north so it’s a timing issue. Need it to be weaker but still north. We know how this song plays. It’s a nice diversion for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Going to be a lot of variations over the next 48 hours. But as of now we have one chance over the next 2 weeks. Looking forward to tracking with everyone here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Going to be a lot of variations over the next 48 hours. But as of now we have one chance over the next 2 weeks. Looking forward to tracking with everyone here If the arctic indices tank like the models showed today, then I think there would be more to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: EPS starts to pop a few snowy solution day 12-15 too now. Lol. Control for fun. Has another wave that crushes the northern half of our region day 12. I know it’s probably not going g to happen, but I love seeing this area get in the pink. I’ve appreciated your optimism. I’ve lived in the DC area for all but 5 ½ years of my life and love the tracking. The snow is awesome, but my favorite part is the chase. I also don’t give up until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: Well I think everyone knows not to believe a solution a model has been showing for just one run. Maybe a hiccup, maybe transitioning to an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 It's nice to see storms react to the blocking late in the run of the op gfs.Obviously, can't take it verbatim but the past few runs have shown an obvious blocky look to the systems as they pass.Hoping that this time next week we will be tracking something legit. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 18 gefs mean snowfall ticked up just a bit day 4-5 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: 18 gefs mean snowfall ticked up just a bit day 4-5 . That map tells me one thing...areas of south and east of 95 have very little chance with this storm as it stands right now. At this point with the trend north with these waves, I'd be worried if I lived anywhere south of the mason dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 GFS reign as king was a short one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: That map tells me one thing...areas of south and east of 95 have very little chance with this storm as it stands right now. At this point with the trend north with these waves, I'd be worried if I lived anywhere south of the mason dixon line. Lol wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Analog if it verifies. 2/2/2010 The storm inbetween 1/30 and 2/5 that everyone forgot. 1/17/2008 No snowday storm 12/13/2007 - Non event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Good lawd @ that block on the gefs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 HmmmJb already hyping march 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hmmm Jb already hyping march 62 Damnit lol. You can't possibly beat him because he has like 20 go to analogs he pulls out and had running by default anytime we're even close to a snow pattern. But that is a legit good look right there. What people need to realize though is yes that look lead to some of our biggest snows but there were plenty of other times we had a similar block and nothing happened. 2001 being one of them. That should have ended better for us based on the setup but just crapped the bed. It still requires some luck. Posting this just so we remember how a great look doesn't always snow. But I'll take my chances on that pattern and roll the dice. Can't score if you don't get in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Amped said: Analog if it verifies. 2/2/2010 The storm inbetween 1/30 and 2/5 that everyone forgot. 1/17/2008 No snowday storm 12/13/2007 - Non event here Not even close. That storm was a southern slider AND it was frigid before, during and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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