yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: its ugly for most of us but unlike others...i find the ukmet to be garbage...for our area and surface Still a better look than your champion GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Still a better look than your champion GFS its actually in a good place if we account for the north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 on a side note=you guys are paying 24.99 for weatherbell and Mahue dosent care about it anymore. 9.99 is a steal for what i am getting with weathermodels.com. and it includes all the euro ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 if we can get the Euro a tick South and the GFS a couple ticks North then we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: if we can get the Euro a tick South and the GFS a couple ticks North then we are in business. and meet in the middle with the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: lol at the warmup behind the weekend Compared to what the Euro was showing a day or two ago it’s somewhat muted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: if we can get the Euro a tick South and the GFS a couple ticks North then we are in business. gfs needs more than a few ticks..it needs an actual storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 lol I bought into weathermodels.com... ji convinced me. cancelling my wxbell account was sad. On that note the EPS mean for our Saturday event is 2" just North of DC. Pretty sizable jump from 0z. 62% chance of an inch at DCA #winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: gfs needs more than a few ticks..it needs an actual storm That's easy for the GFS to accomplish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: gfs needs more than a few ticks..it needs an actual storm Happy Hour is right around the corner. Would be nice to see something from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 When Wes pops into the thread, its time to start tracking. At least until 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: lol I bought into weathermodels.com... ji convinced me. cancelling my wxbell account was sad. On that note the EPS mean for our Saturday event is 2" just North of DC. Pretty sizable jump from 0z. That's fast for the eps to be out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: euro look good boys That has THAT look. Weaker, but pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I think it was maybe @Bob Chill who said it... but the control is a carbon copy of the op. That’s a good thing I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I think it was maybe @Bob Chill who said it... but the control is a carbon copy of the op. That’s a good thing I think. Looks even a bit south of the OP. We never taint or change to rain, even down to DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: no...today is tuesday. The storm is saturday. Nothing has ever gone wrong bettween Tuesday and Saturday I treat each chase like an NFL season. Getting a warning event is like winning the super bowl. Each good model run along the way is like a regular season win. Might not win the super bowl and it will sting when the seasons over a bit but I still enjoy each win along the way. The chase has to be part of the fun or this hobby has too little payoff and you will go crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I think it was maybe @Bob Chill who said it... but the control is a carbon copy of the op. That’s a good thing I think. In my mind the GFS is what the Euro used to be..can’t get too excited until the new king makes a royal decree..I shall have a glass of ale ready for the verdict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Would be fitting to get our only decent snowstorm of the season 48 hours after what may be the warmest day of the whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: In my mind the GFS is what the Euro used to be..can’t get too excited until the new king makes a royal decree..I shall have a glass of ale ready for the verdict. I dont think we have a scientific way of grading models lol....we grade them based on what happens in the DC area. The Euro might be kicking the GFS tail in 95% of the world but in our backyard this season...the GFS seems better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: I dont think we have a scientific way of grading models lol....we grade them based on what happens in the DC area. The Euro might be kicking the GFS tail in 95% of the world but in our backyard this season...the GFS seems better The GFS has been pretty bad. We just tend to notice how models do with more notable systems. The only thing the GFS has really gotten right is that systems have largely been more progrsssive and flat than advertised beyond 84 hours. It’s still been bad on details within 72 for the most part and was terrible on both the 12/8 southeast snow storm and the early January SNE storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I updated the post-event model analysis thread with some actual qpf data that we can use to evaluate old model runs. Have fun figuring out which model to hug. My guess is that for most of us it will still be the one that gives us the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 When looking over the EPS members, the OP seems to be the max potential. Hypothetically, the OP would be a weenie run compared to the majority of EPS members. Not sure what this means, maybe someone who knows more could speak to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 EPS starts to pop a few snowy solution day 12-15 too now. Lol. Control for fun. Has another wave that crushes the northern half of our region day 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: When looking over the EPS members, the OP seems to be the max potential. Hypothetically, the OP would be a weenie run compared to the majority of EPS members. Not sure what this means, maybe someone who knows more could speak to that. I think it means that it's unlikely things will get much better than what the Euro just showed. There are a lot of members that are nearly as good as the op though, which is a good sign. And there weren't a lot of complete misses. I counted about 40 that got measurable snow imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Looking at the eps for the weekend it has over 30 members that snow on us now. Some favor north some south and some are straight up crush jobs for the majority of the forum. Each of the last 4 runs of the eps has trended better. Overall I think it was a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 The GEPS continues to trend better, but clearly not locked into the op's solution yet. A lot of spread in the members, but about 14 get at least 1" of snow imby, with a mean qpf as snow of about 0.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Not to get too technical about it, but we are due for a decent storm. My hope is we have reverted back to the good old days when the Euro would sniff something out and the GFS would eventually cave to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: When looking over the EPS members, the OP seems to be the max potential. Hypothetically, the OP would be a weenie run compared to the majority of EPS members. Not sure what this means, maybe someone who knows more could speak to that. It's showing typical spread for day 5. The mean is skewed North a bit by a few massive amped members. It's good overall imo but I'm sticking with north being the bigger threat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Not to get too technical about it, but we are due for a decent storm. My hope is we have reverted back to the good old days when the Euro would sniff something out and the GFS would eventually cave to the Euro. A very good non technical point. If we go snowless the rest of the year, it is record shattering, at least for DC. So the law of averages argues we get something. Doesn't mean we will, but we are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: A very good non technical point. If we go snowless the rest of the year, it is record shattering, at least for DC. So the law of averages argues we get something. Doesn't mean we will, but we are due. gambler's fallacy, though i agree. GFS will be telling...and so will the next 10-12 runs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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