Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: Sucks its an overnight snow. hopefully it comes earlier or later Let's worry about getting any snow at all before bringing up time of day. It's the weekend. I'll gladly stay up all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 EPS is going to come out with group think clustering and blow the lid off this joint. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 @Bob Chill and anyone else who has some input. Is the north trend during progressive flow something we see in all models? I know I've seen it in the past too, but I can't remember if some models had more of a bias than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Let's worry about getting any snow at all before bringing up time of day. It's the weekend. I'll gladly stay up all night Yea at this point if it does happen Saturday night I'm all in. Even with a better pattern this could be Glory's last shot this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Boom I love how how it put the very edge of the 10-inch blob practically right over my neighborhood (northeast Balt. city) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I love how how it put the very edge of the 10-inch blob practically right over my neighborhood (northeast Balt. city) nothing new lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, cae said: @Bob Chill and anyone else who has some input. Is the north trend during progressive flow something we see in all models? I know I've seen it in the past too, but I can't remember if some models had more of a bias than others. Yes, but it depends on the lead. 4+ days can have big differences so run over run trends can be large. Inside of 3 days models are usually similar and that's when you need to pay attention to "ticks and trends". We're not there yet. We're still in agreement phase in general stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes, north is the most likely fail. Still could get a good mixed event becuase this is one of the better/fresher antecedent airmass we've had all year. Storms have been coming too late after the midlevels rot out. This one is basically the day after the front clears. Near perfect timing for a progressive pattern. the euro map shows frozen precip pretty far south into SW VA. Thats a good sign for some cushion lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, Ji said: the euro map shows frozen precip pretty far south into SW VA. Thats a good sign for some cushion lol It's really good timing for some snow even with a crap overhead or north track. The front end WWA piece will likely snow on us no matter what as long as precip makes it here. Euro was the entire package with waa, ccb, and fairly strong storm. Top end solution has been presented. There's only one way to go from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's really good timing for some snow even with a crap overhead or north track. The front end WWA piece will likely snow on us no matter what as long as precip makes it here. Euro was the entire package with waa, ccb, and fairly strong storm. Top end solution has been presented. There's only one way to go from here. Even bigger storm?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's really good timing for some snow even with a crap overhead or north track. The front end WWA piece will likely snow on us no matter what as long as precip makes it here. Euro was the entire package with waa, ccb, and fairly strong storm. Top end solution has been presented. There's only one way to go from here. i would honestly be happy with 3. That would cover the grass and make us look like a snowstown...but i agree...the euro is probably the most potential this storm has. Maybe the Icon is useful lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro map shows frozen precip pretty far south into SW VA. Thats a good sign for some cushion lol I’m hugging Euro’s with big cushions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 38 minutes ago, Ji said: euro look good boys You happy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Until the next GFS goes further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, Ji said: i would honestly be happy with 3. That would cover the grass and make us look like a snowstown...but i agree...the euro is probably the most potential this storm has. Maybe the Icon is useful lol I'm a bit optimistic. Euro is "probably" doing the over amp mid range thing but also "probably" has the right general idea. A weaker version of the euro is still a snowstorm here. Gefs had a lot of fairly amped solutions with plenty of precip. Going to get scary every 12 hours for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 my extremely low bar at this point is to get to NAM territory and get Nam'ed. Hell we haven't just had little snow this winter, we can't even get the NAM to give us a digital snowstorm for most of the "events" this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 King GFS gonna bring all these silly models back to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: Until the next GFS goes further south. If models are under doing the strength of the front and hp building in then that's surely possible. How many times have ops underdone a cold push and high strength in the med range this year? I can only think of maybe 2 times and that was back in late Dec/early Jan. I suppose the NC storm in Jan counts but that was a different setup. All other times have gone the other way. And we've been raining a lot becuase of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: King GFS gonna bring all these silly models back to reality lol at calling EURO/GGEM/UKIE silly models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You happy now I guess that’s ok. I’m going to think positive ...that’s what I told myself at my wedding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm a bit optimistic. Euro is "probably" doing the over amp mid range thing but also "probably" has the right general idea. A weaker version of the euro is still a snowstorm here. Gefs had a lot of fairly amped solutions with plenty of precip. Going to get scary every 12 hours for a few days. I'd prefer a weaker storm as it would be nicer for my house. Today's UKMET is pretty flat more like the GFS than thee Euro though it still might get Preciip to us. I can't see it past 72 hours. Jason and I are writing a tag team article on the threat. This year has been interesting as more often than not, the solution that keeps the bulk of the precip to our south has been the right one this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2018 Author Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: lol at calling EURO/GGEM/UKIE silly models Did the ukie look similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Did the ukie look similar? It def looks better than the GFS in track and a bit further north... but I don't have precip panels past 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You happy now no...today is tuesday. The storm is saturday. Nothing has ever gone wrong bettween Tuesday and Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I'd prefer a weaker storm as it would be nicer to my house. Today's UKMET is pretty flat more like the GFS than thee Euro though it still might get Preciip to us. I can't see it past 72 hours. Jason and I are writing a tag team article on the threat. This year has been interesting as more often than not, the solution that keeps the bulk of the precip to our south has been the right one this winter. lol and @psuhoffmanblasted me for raising this concern. Oh well...i still love him. Somehow i got more negative then him and i thought he was the king of negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 @Ji do you have UKMET panels? Should be part of your wx.graphics subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm a bit optimistic. Euro is "probably" doing the over amp mid range thing but also "probably" has the right general idea. A weaker version of the euro is still a snowstorm here. Gefs had a lot of fairly amped solutions with plenty of precip. Going to get scary every 12 hours for a few days. lol this is where i wish the euro now ran once a day at 8pm.....this will be our 3rd potential winter storm in Feb. Who said Feb wasnt a rockin month lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: @Ji do you have UKMET panels? Should be part of your wx.graphics subscription. its ugly for most of us but unlike others...i find the ukmet to be garbage...for our area and surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 51 minutes ago, Ji said: euro look good boys wait, how did that happen?? lol, i guess i'm back in to checking this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 lol at the warmup behind the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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