osfan24 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, Ji said: yes i know psu..i know how it works...storms always trend north....till you actually need them to trend north. And both storms last week were always west and north of us....they were never underneath. We just benefited from having some cold air in place before the precip attacked Just casually follow and not take anything seriously until less than 72 hours out. That's been my philosophy ever since we closed the blinds on winter in mid January. It keeps you from getting frustrated. Also, just keep telling yourself that another bad winter means a good one is that much more likely to be around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Then you go and complain the GFS is south in your next post....I don't know if this is the one we finally get lucky...these waves are tricky, the "win" zone is relatively narrow and they bounce around a lot in a progressive pattern but things are just about where I would want them at this time range...last few times when the wave started near us or just north they trended more amplified and north the last 4-5 days until we ended up with mostly a rain storm. This look is fine to me right now. In the end it could still end up a rain storm, or maybe this wave stays just to our south...but you are complaining about it being too far north and south IN THE SAME RUN.I was more complaining about the gfs weak storm rather than the position. Did you see 00z euro Good position but weak sauce 1 to 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: He's not going to be freaking happy unless it shows him in the jackpot run after run after run up till verification. eta: And he still will not be happy because he will find something else wrong with it. I put him on ignore so I wouldn't have to read his inane whining and yet you all keep reply to his BS posts. PLEASE just ignore him. You're right...I kinda go back and forth...I ignored him and most others for almost all of November, and December, and January...then I guess I decided well if they aren't going to stop trolling us I might as well troll them back a little. And during the "down times" that didn't matter but now that there is a legit threat, and after that a legit pattern on the table to track I will go back to just ignoring so as not to clutter up the thread more. Thanks for the reality check. Ji I like you but it gets old, we are all suffering through the same bad winters you are. And yea seasonal trends argue this probably will screw us again. But you also know the same stats I do that we often score a lucky hit or two even in an otherwise crappy year. If you didn't know that and have hope you wouldnt bother to track. So give in a rest...we all know how bad its been and we all know it might screw us over agian, you don't need to remind us every 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Just casually follow and not take anything seriously until less than 72 hours out. That's been my philosophy ever since we closed the blinds on winter in mid January. It keeps you from getting frustrated. Also, just keep telling yourself that another bad winter means a good one is that much more likely to be around the corner. Yep, that's how it goes around here...if ya have 2 bad ones...the likelihood of the next one (or certainly the one after) being good seems to increase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 GEFS has a couple decent hits, but also plenty of rainers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS has a couple decent hit, but also plenty of rainers too. But the op is south... fwiw I'm more worried about rain then suppressed att. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But the op is south... fwiw I'm more worried about rain then suppressed att. Me too. I can't think of a single time we needed a South trend and got it within 4 days (except maybe 3/3/14). Still, a snow to rain event would be a steal given that it's squished between 2 brief torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I agree, GFS is right where we want it at this range. No sense in freaking out over run to run differences. Its Tuesday. Either this hits and we get snow or PSUHOOFMAN gives us his promised meltdown when this pattern breakdowns and none of these waves worked. Either way, its a win win. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 GEFS is a pretty good look this far out. Also a decent bit of Richmond jackpots. Who was the one that said we need the models to jackpot Richmond at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Bob Chill said Richmond jackpot is the best look for DC when over 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I agree, GFS is right where we want it at this range. No sense in freaking out over run to run differences. Its Tuesday. Either this hits and we get snow or PSUHOOFMAN gives us his promised meltdown when this pattern breakdowns and none of these waves worked. Either way, its a win win. :-) We have a classic nao block showing up right after so I will hold off. But if this fails and the blocking falls apart at which time it's finally truly over I will go in the panic room and unleash a tidal wave of pent up frustration. It will be epic. I promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But the op is south... fwiw I'm more worried about rain then suppressed att. It fits the current pattern. Everything is in motion with no blocking yet established. The cold lobes quickly rotate down, scrape our region, and swing out just as fast. Highs move across just to our north and quickly exit off the coast. If we even get a significant wave, everything would have to time just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We have a classic nao block showing up right after so I will hold off. But if this fails and the blocking falls apart at which time it's finally truly over I will go in the panic room and unleash a tidal wave of pent up frustration. It will be epic. I promise. Now I don't know what to wish for more. I have already written off the season. I do love snow... but also a good rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Again....i was bemoaning the weak sheared look...not how far south it was. I just want an event even if its dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 We have a classic nao block showing up right after so I will hold off. But if this fails and the blocking falls apart at which time it's finally truly over I will go in the panic room and unleash a tidal wave of pent up frustration. It will be epic. I promise. Your unleashing willl have more impact in this thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Long range signals > ensembles h5 ensemble means past day 10 any day! https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2018/2/13/1215-pm-numerous-signs-point-to-a-return-of-a-colder-than-normal-pattern-for-the-eastern-us-during-late-february-and-march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 You cant ask for a better NA look than the GEFS is currently depicting towards day 15. Legit west based block with a 500 mb low planted underneath off of the Canadian Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Again....i was bemoaning the weak sheared look...not how far south it was. I just want an event even if its dirty. Fair enough but weak and south go together. The more amplified the wave gets the more poleward momentum it will be able to achieve. That's basic physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Long range signals > ensembles past day 10 any day! https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2018/2/13/1215-pm-numerous-signs-point-to-a-return-of-a-colder-than-normal-pattern-for-the-eastern-us-during-late-february-and-march But the signals are derived from the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: You cant ask for a better NA look than the GEFS is currently depicting. Legit west based block with a 500 mb low planted underneath off of the Canadian Maritimes. It's a sick look and I'm drooling a bit. I'm so glad we have this weekend threat so that by the time that is past the blocking should either be in believable range or be gone so we don't have to hear the constant debs telling is it's not gonna happen. Maybe it will maybe it won't but I feel much better seeing the look now then if all the guidance showed a torch. And the debs do too because when it showed a torch they were screaming winters over. That's the catch. When the guidance is bad it's totally legit. When it's good it's BS. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I can't wait for the look to get into day 11 range so we can see what analogs the gefs starts spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's a sick look and I'm drooling a bit. I'm so glad we have this weekend threat so that by the time that is past the blocking should either be in believable range or be gone so we don't have to hear the constant debs telling is it's not gonna happen. Maybe it will maybe it won't but I feel much better seeing the look now then if all the guidance showed a torch. And the debs do too because when it showed a torch they were screaming winters over. That's the catch. When the guidance is bad it's totally legit. When it's good it's BS. Lol. If we get a 10" paste bomb in early March they will all be back and joyous. Things like sun angle, flowering trees getting wrecked, and high heating bills suddenly wont matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We have a classic nao block showing up right after so I will hold off. But if this fails and the blocking falls apart at which time it's finally truly over I will go in the panic room and unleash a tidal wave of pent up frustration. It will be epic. I promise. Nah, why waste the energy like that. I'm itching to start the winter 18-19 thread. I'll waste my energy there for the next 8 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 34 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Bob Chill said Richmond jackpot is the best look for DC when over 3 days out. During progressive flow that rule of thumb applies 100% of the time with little failure. Without blocking we almost never get a south trend. If we have a mega 50/50 and/or a west based neg nao then you want to be dead center at 3-4 days leads. These rules of thumb will make you look smarter than you are. I learned them by wasting way too many hours of my life by chasing ghosts and staring at weather models when its clear as day that I should have used my time more wisely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I'll remember the caveat. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, why waste the energy like that. I'm itching to start the winter 18-19 thread. I'll waste my energy there for the next 8 months. I won't actually be that upset. I'm thinking kind of an over the top parody piece. Like SNL did with da bears super fans. Just for fun. This is all just fun to me. Btw I do still think we have a better than 50/50 chance at more snow before this is over. It doesn't feel like it's done to me. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I won't actually be that upset. I'm thinking kind of an over the top parody piece. Like SNL did with da bears super fans. Just for fun. This is all just fun to me. Btw I do still think we have a better than 50/50 chance at more snow before this is over. It doesn't feel like it's done to me. We will see. If we're going to get a March monster then it starts with a west based block and a side order of a giant 50/50. So far so good. A monster will almost certainly mix in my yard but the experience is always worth it. All rain would leave a mark though...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2018 Author Share Posted February 13, 2018 That GEFS look for the Atlantic starting around day 12 is epic. The PAC starts to get a bit more cooperative by the end. Wish that was Feb 1 instead of March 1 though. I have a hard time chasing d12-15 in mid February. But if that look verifies, our snow chances would certainly be above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Wxbell sucks. Free maps look pretty decent. I'll extrapolate 3" in my yard and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 If we get a -5 AO and barely negative NAO, then it could lead to suppression imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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