Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 We remember how well a good hit worked for us when it was progged 3 days + out on Feb 9th 2017 by most of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 this will probably end up like our other feb storms where we get a trace before it goes to sleet and rain haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GGEM is precip decent... going to have to wait to see what type 2mT support snow... looks like a good hit Bob and Ji should like this 12z GGEM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 GGEM looks cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, Ji said: GGEM looks cold enough 25-30 degrees Sat night snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 The GFS run is troubling regardless of the other guidance. at least to me. its Tuesday I know. but this year its seems to lock on scenarios like a pit bull. and the other guidance gives in like a poodle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: The GFS run is troubling regardless of the other guidance. at least to me. its Tuesday I know. but this year its seems to lock on scenarios like a pit bull. and the other guidance gives in like a poodle yep...having the best model this winter not have a storm isnt very encouraging. Lets see what the euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: yep...having the best model this winter not have a storm isnt very encouraging. Lets see what the euro says Best model? It has won multiple times, but it isn't like it's been perfect 4+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: yep...having the best model this winter not have a storm isnt very encouraging. Lets see what the euro says lol it had one at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The GFS run is troubling regardless of the other guidance. at least to me. its Tuesday I know. but this year its seems to lock on scenarios like a pit bull. and the other guidance gives in like a poodle ICON/GFS went flatter/further south so far at 12z. Should be a positive because like other's have pointed out we don't have a lot of wiggle room. Plus the northern trend. Regardless, this winter we seem to always find a way to fail. I don't feel great about a southern trend and I don't feel good about a northern trend. Either of those scenarios could play out. CMC is encouraging. I keep telling myself that one of these opportunities has to break right for us this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 ^ Hug the third string model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 It was honestly a lot more concerning when both the EPS/GEFS had a lot more northern tracks. Not trying to wishcast or anything, but hoping for a North trend is a lot better than hoping for a South trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 On a positive note...at least this will be the last threat while we are in this regime. We may fail with the upcoming pattern as we enter March but at least it will be for different reasons. It's getting tiresome hoping for weak/shredded...We need to start a pattern where we are rooting for more amped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This map at least looks like a typical DC snow storm. Favors the North and west with higher totals. Doesn't jackpot the beaches lol. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: LOOOOL. The GGEM has me at 180 inches now this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Better than showing a hit North of us. We've seen it before. If it were to show the perfect hit for us right now, we'd be pretty much fooked lol. Better than what the ICON/0z GGEM were showing and even the EPS last night. It's best to have the models split. If some miss us to the north and some to the south, we're in pretty good shape when they start to converge. That's one of the things I liked about the EPS last night. There were a good number of tracks to both our north and our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 man if you were going to bet you would have to bet on the GFS, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I disagree to an extent. Yes, ops have teased and pulled the rug a lot this year but I can't think of a single time they did it under 72 hours. The early December storm backed in under 72 hours but other than that, all opportunities (as meager as they've been) have done well from 72 hours in. Ensemble guidance *in general* has done remarkably well d10+. Especially the CFS. Specific sensible wx is what frustrates people the most but ops d4+ have never been reliable except for rare cases. I don't see how this winter is any different than any other year with mid range stuff. The problem is that the MA has fallen short on almost all ops so it's very memorable and not in a good way. But that doesn't mean models have had a high fail rate. They've done pretty well. It depends on expectations so the grading is subjective. Now that we seem to be headed towards the first real Atlantic block in Jan 2011, ops will probably start doing better in the d4-5+ range but better still includes head fakes and run over run jumps. Fair points man and I get ya, but I feel the ensembles have had their issues in the LR. We all know that ops inside 4 days are the way to go and while the goalpost narrow we live in a region where 100 miles makes a very very large difference in mby forecasts and in a pattern that is unstable the cliffs get mighty full. A nice stable long wave pattern would calm the masses but for the near and mid term that ain’t happening. Threading needles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The GFS run is troubling regardless of the other guidance. at least to me. its Tuesday I know. but this year its seems to lock on scenarios like a pit bull. and the other guidance gives in like a poodle Seeing as it just had it on us at 06z, you can't really call it "locked", lol (it's not like other times this winter where the GFS has been plain stubborn) Still some moving parts here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 28 minutes ago, Ji said: yep...getting zero precip is a great recipe for a snowstorm Stop it...you know that these boundary waves tend to trend north inside 72 hours 90 percent of the time. We just witnessed it twice in a row last week when both systems looked promising from range and ended up north of us. Could this one stay south...sure...but you definitely want the gfs to show it south at this range and not north of us. So stop acting like you just started playing this game yesterday you're better then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 So far all guidance has trended south at 12z for the weekend event. GFS/ICON/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: ^ Hug the third string model lol Eagles just wont with a backup QB...why can't we win with a backup model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Well folks...for the weekend, one Almanac is oddly specific with a prediction of a 6 inch snowfall...the other one simply says "rain and snow showers"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: LOOOOL. The GGEM has me at 180 inches now this winter. The entire mid Atlantic has been the Tughill plataeu this winter on the GGEM, kudos to our Canadian friends for digital dreams and false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 29 minutes ago, Ji said: this will probably end up like our other feb storms where we get a trace before it goes to sleet and rain haha Then you go and complain the GFS is south in your next post....I don't know if this is the one we finally get lucky...these waves are tricky, the "win" zone is relatively narrow and they bounce around a lot in a progressive pattern but things are just about where I would want them at this time range...last few times when the wave started near us or just north they trended more amplified and north the last 4-5 days until we ended up with mostly a rain storm. This look is fine to me right now. In the end it could still end up a rain storm, or maybe this wave stays just to our south...but you are complaining about it being too far north and south IN THE SAME RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Stop it...you know that these boundary waves tend to trend north inside 72 hours 90 percent of the time. We just witnessed it twice in a row last week when both systems looked promising from range and ended up north of us. Could this one stay south...sure...but you definitely want the gfs to show it south at this range and not north of us. So stop acting like you just started playing this game yesterday you're better then that. yes i know psu..i know how it works...storms always trend north....till you actually need them to trend north. And both storms last week were always west and north of us....they were never underneath. We just benefited from having some cold air in place before the precip attacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Then you go and complain the GFS is south in your next post....I don't know if this is the one we finally get lucky...these waves are tricky, the "win" zone is relatively narrow and they bounce around a lot in a progressive pattern but things are just about where I would want them at this time range...last few times when the wave started near us or just north they trended more amplified and north the last 4-5 days until we ended up with mostly a rain storm. This look is fine to me right now. In the end it could still end up a rain storm, or maybe this wave stays just to our south...but you are complaining about it being too far north and south IN THE SAME RUN. He's not going to be freaking happy unless it shows him in the jackpot run after run after run up till verification. eta: And he still will not be happy because he will find something else wrong with it. I put him on ignore so I wouldn't have to read his inane whining and yet you all keep reply to his BS posts. PLEASE just ignore him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 12z UKMET looks good when you compare the 96 hr to the 120 hr SLP map as well as note that the HP is following the SLP off the coast at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ji said: yes i know psu..i know how it works...storms always trend north....till you actually need them to trend north. And both storms last week were always west and north of us....they were never underneath. We just benefited from having some cold air in place before the precip attacked I think what may be annoying to some is you argue from a non-logical "it's always opposite of where we want it" perspective that's not rooted in the data of the current storm. Not saying seasonal trends don't mean anything, but you can't bring the emotional "baggage" of the rest of the season into each new storm...Yes, it's hard to be optimistic in a bad year when stuff hasn't broken right--I get that...but ya can't keep dredging that up to the point of only seeing the worst case scemario...because each storm in this kind of pattern is a wildcard! Have you not been negative in the past with a storm and it ended up being a hit? So in summary... Stating concerns based on current data? Constructive. Stating concerns (and complaints) based on seasonal "it's gonna go wrong because it will"? Not so much. Again, I get the emotion, but for the purposes of this thread? Not good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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